98s bb change of pace

[Chris Daddy Cool]

party 5/10, zero reads

UTG raises. CC1, CC2, CC3. SB folds. I call in the BB with 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 5 dudes. 10.25 small bets.

Flop: 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif3 /images/graemlins/club.gif

I bet.

what do you figure my ev is for this compared to checking? show me some math guys!

[27offsooot]

Something less than zero. I really don't get this play.

[bakku]

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Something less than zero. I really don't get this play.

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What's not to get?

edit: I'm not saying betting is the correct play, but it does have merit.

[meep_42]

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Something less than zero. I really don't get this play.

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What's not to get?

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Why he would lead into the pf raiser with a 9 high and OESD.
I mean, I guess it's to improve his chances of winning with a 9 or 8, but that doesn't mean I have to like it! :P

-d

[27offsooot]

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Something less than zero. I really don't get this play.

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What's not to get?

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You're betting into a PFraiser with a draw. I don't see you cleaning up your pair outs here. I guess you might clean up some redraw bd flush draws should u hit. But what the hell, at least I know Super Pro will agree with me.

Edit - I guess you may clean up some redraws if u pair up on the turn or prevent someone from pairing on the turn in case u pair up on the river. Ok, so it's a big pot and protect some of your outs. I get it a little more. But, I don't think that he raises with overs here if he's a decent opponent, in which case you aren't cleaning up your pair outs at all.

[Entity]

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I don't see you cleaning up your pair outs here.

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Why not?

Rob

[DMBFan23]

what he might also do is clear out singleton clubs, increasing his winning chances if he catches a club straight card. however, the math on this one is extremely complicated. we need to know how often UTG is raising overcards with and without a club, overpairs with and without a club, how often someone has a flush draw or a set, and how often players will call one but fold to two. lots of variables. it's interesting to think about.

[PokerBob]

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party 5/10, zero reads

UTG raises. CC1, CC2, CC3. SB folds. I call in the BB with 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 5 dudes. 10.25 small bets.

Flop: 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif3 /images/graemlins/club.gif

I bet.

what do you figure my ev is for this compared to checking? show me some math guys!

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This is an easy bet, at least in my eyes. UTG will surely raise, and blow out any single, big clubs. Anyone who calls 2-cold, you probably can put on a club draw. If it comes back to you at 3-bets, you can dump it. If you intend to continue in this hand, betting is the only way to go IMO.

[btspider]

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I don't see you cleaning up your pair outs here.

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Why not?

Rob

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of the 5 overcard ranks.. we can only clean up vs two of them.. probably Q and J. i don't think Q/J is seeing the river without a pair, so for this to work they would have to fold on the flop, spike a Q/J on the turn, and we'd spike a 9/8 on the river all while the PFR has AK and not an overpair.

i think i'd just play this for plain old straight value. Qx/Jx may even fold for one bet on the flop.

[27offsooot]

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UTG will surely raise, and blow out any single, big clubs.

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Why?

[Chris Daddy Cool]

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party 5/10, zero reads

UTG raises. CC1, CC2, CC3. SB folds. I call in the BB with 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 5 dudes. 10.25 small bets.

Flop: 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif3 /images/graemlins/club.gif

I bet.

what do you figure my ev is for this compared to checking? show me some math guys!

[/ QUOTE ]

This is an easy bet, at least in my eyes. UTG will surely raise, and blow out any single, big clubs. Anyone who calls 2-cold, you probably can put on a club draw. If it comes back to you at 3-bets, you can dump it. If you intend to continue in this hand, betting is the only way to go IMO.

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whoa whoa whoa. did you read the board correctly?

[PokerBob]

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party 5/10, zero reads

UTG raises. CC1, CC2, CC3. SB folds. I call in the BB with 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 5 dudes. 10.25 small bets.

Flop: 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif3 /images/graemlins/club.gif

I bet.

what do you figure my ev is for this compared to checking? show me some math guys!

[/ QUOTE ]

This is an easy bet, at least in my eyes. UTG will surely raise, and blow out any single, big clubs. Anyone who calls 2-cold, you probably can put on a club draw. If it comes back to you at 3-bets, you can dump it. If you intend to continue in this hand, betting is the only way to go IMO.

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whoa whoa whoa. did you read the board correctly?

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yes

[Entity]

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party 5/10, zero reads

UTG raises. CC1, CC2, CC3. SB folds. I call in the BB with 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 5 dudes. 10.25 small bets.

Flop: 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif3 /images/graemlins/club.gif

I bet.

what do you figure my ev is for this compared to checking? show me some math guys!

[/ QUOTE ]

This is an easy bet, at least in my eyes. UTG will surely raise, and blow out any single, big clubs. Anyone who calls 2-cold, you probably can put on a club draw. If it comes back to you at 3-bets, you can dump it. If you intend to continue in this hand, betting is the only way to go IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

whoa whoa whoa. did you read the board correctly?

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yes

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And you're folding if it goes bet-raise-3bet, getting like 7-8:1?

Rob

[Entity]

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I don't see you cleaning up your pair outs here.

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Why not?

Rob

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of the 5 overcard ranks.. we can only clean up vs two of them.. probably Q and J. i don't think Q/J is seeing the river without a pair, so for this to work they would have to fold on the flop, spike a Q/J on the turn, and we'd spike a 9/8 on the river all while the PFR has AK and not an overpair.

i think i'd just play this for plain old straight value. Qx/Jx may even fold for one bet on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I doubt two overcards are folding for one -- they might for two. Folding hands like A5s and such might be worthwhile too.

I don't know that I prefer a bet to a c/r, but it's interesting at least.

Rob

[27offsooot]

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I don't see you cleaning up your pair outs here.

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Why not?
Rob

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If u were UTG, would u raise the flop with AKo (no clubs)?

[PokerBob]

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party 5/10, zero reads

UTG raises. CC1, CC2, CC3. SB folds. I call in the BB with 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 5 dudes. 10.25 small bets.

Flop: 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif3 /images/graemlins/club.gif

I bet.

what do you figure my ev is for this compared to checking? show me some math guys!

[/ QUOTE ]

This is an easy bet, at least in my eyes. UTG will surely raise, and blow out any single, big clubs. Anyone who calls 2-cold, you probably can put on a club draw. If it comes back to you at 3-bets, you can dump it. If you intend to continue in this hand, betting is the only way to go IMO.

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whoa whoa whoa. did you read the board correctly?

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yes

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And you're folding if it goes bet-raise-3bet, getting like 7-8:1?

Rob

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Actually I was just tihinking about that as I stood over the urinal. That would be kinda dumb.

That said, I'm still not convinced that leading this flop is a no-no.

[Entity]

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I don't see you cleaning up your pair outs here.

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Why not?
Rob

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If u were UTG, would u raise the flop with AKo (no clubs)?

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Even if I wouldn't, most 2+2ers would (this was shown in a recent HUSH thread, IIRC).

Oh, and I might, given this board and the range of hands Chris can be betting into me with. I'd be very likely to raise AK with a club.

Rob

[PokerBob]

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I don't see you cleaning up your pair outs here.

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Why not?

Rob

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of the 5 overcard ranks.. we can only clean up vs two of them.. probably Q and J. i don't think Q/J is seeing the river without a pair, so for this to work they would have to fold on the flop, spike a Q/J on the turn, and we'd spike a 9/8 on the river all while the PFR has AK and not an overpair.

i think i'd just play this for plain old straight value. Qx/Jx may even fold for one bet on the flop.

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I doubt two overcards are folding for one -- they might for two. Folding hands like A5s and such might be worthwhile too.

I don't know that I prefer a bet to a c/r, but it's interesting at least.

Rob

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Why would you c/r?

[JoshuaD]

I think this will cost you a 3BB's on average everytime your straight draw comes in, so -1BB for the straight potential. You proabably make up a little when you clean up your two outs, or when you take control of the hand against an AK and bluff him out on the turn.

My highly scientific reasoning values this play at -0.75BB compared to checking.

Q E D

[JoshuaD]

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Why would you c/r?

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If the PF raiser bets, and he gets a caller or two. Raise for value.

[PokerBob]

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I don't see you cleaning up your pair outs here.

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Why not?
Rob

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If u were UTG, would u raise the flop with AKo (no clubs)?

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I'd be tempted to, to make any single /images/graemlins/club.gif's scoot.

[Entity]

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I don't see you cleaning up your pair outs here.

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Why not?

Rob

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of the 5 overcard ranks.. we can only clean up vs two of them.. probably Q and J. i don't think Q/J is seeing the river without a pair, so for this to work they would have to fold on the flop, spike a Q/J on the turn, and we'd spike a 9/8 on the river all while the PFR has AK and not an overpair.

i think i'd just play this for plain old straight value. Qx/Jx may even fold for one bet on the flop.

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I doubt two overcards are folding for one -- they might for two. Folding hands like A5s and such might be worthwhile too.

I don't know that I prefer a bet to a c/r, but it's interesting at least.

Rob

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Why would you c/r?

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For value.

[PokerBob]

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Why would you c/r?

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If the PF raiser bets, and he gets a caller or two. Raise for value.

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So the flop isn't a bet for value situation????

[27offsooot]

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I don't see you cleaning up your pair outs here.

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Why not?
Rob

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If u were UTG, would u raise the flop with AKo (no clubs)?

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Even if I wouldn't, most 2+2ers would (this was shown in a recent HUSH thread, IIRC).

Oh, and I might, given this board and the range of hands Chris can be betting into me with. I'd be very likely to raise AK with a club.

Rob

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Even knowing CDC, wouldn't u suspect he more likely has a pp or some pair with his bet? Against an unknown would u raise with AKo? I suppose I'm giving UTG too much credit.

Btw, I really like this hand b/c it's making me think for once.

[JoshuaD]

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So the flop isn't a bet for value situation????

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The preflop raiser is likely to raise, blowing away the field and making it HU. Not really the situation our hero would prefer.

[chesspain]

I find the idea of potentially spending two bets to go HU w/my 9-high OESD against an UTG PF raiser extremely unappealing.

[27offsooot]

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Why would you c/r?

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If the PF raiser bets, and he gets a caller or two. Raise for value.

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So the flop isn't a bet for value situation????

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IMO, it's for less value.

[btspider]

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I doubt two overcards are folding for one -- they might for two. Folding hands like A5s and such might be worthwhile too.

I don't know that I prefer a bet to a c/r, but it's interesting at least.

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yeah. not sure if A5s/A4s (or T9s) fold even for 2 bets. they didn't cold-call 2 PF just to fold when they spike a draw. but again.. the PFR would need something like KQ for the Aces to need cleaning out, or we're back into the runner-runner (we hit pair, they hit gutshot) scenario.

i think in general, cleaning up one pair outs is overrated when OOP. in position, free cards and other good stuff can result.

i don't think a bet is bad. however, an overpair will raise us all day long, but AK/AQ from an unknown isn't always going to raise. I think everything we need to happen is pretty marginal.

[krishanleong]

I think betting blows. It's fancy. There is too much fancy going around these days. You have a solid draw. It's a draw, not a made hand. You don't need to protect your unmade hand against 2 outers, backdoor flush draws, backdoor straight redraws, backdoor bottom two pair draw and any other crap.

CR the flop if there are enough callers. Otherwise call and cr if you hit on the turn or river.

Krishan

[bakku]

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Against an unknown would u raise with AKo?

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People love to raise flops with their overcards. So much so that it's gotten to the point where it's getting automatic for a lot of people..which is bad.

Take a look at this poll.. (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=1934228&page=0&view=e xpanded&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1)

[bakku]

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I doubt two overcards are folding for one -- they might for two. Folding hands like A5s and such might be worthwhile too.

I don't know that I prefer a bet to a c/r, but it's interesting at least.

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yeah. not sure if A5s/A4s (or T9s) fold even for 2 bets. they didn't cold-call 2 PF just to fold when they spike a draw. but again.. the PFR would need something like KQ for the Aces to need cleaning out, or we're back into the runner-runner (we hit pair, they hit gutshot) scenario.

i think in general, cleaning up one pair outs is overrated when OOP. in position, free cards and other good stuff can result.

i don't think a bet is bad. however, an overpair will raise us all day long, but AK/AQ from an unknown isn't always going to raise. I think everything we need to happen is pretty marginal.

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Good post

[Garbonzo]

I wrote a long babbling response and then reread the question and decided to shorten it all up.

Hero should checkraise the field on the flop.

[PokerBob]

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So the flop isn't a bet for value situation????

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The preflop raiser is likely to raise, blowing away the field and making it HU. Not really the situation our hero would prefer.

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And when the pf raiser 3-bets my c/r?

[chief444]

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i think in general, cleaning up one pair outs is overrated when OOP. in position, free cards and other good stuff can result.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree. And as you point out the opponents you're hoping to eliminate all cold-called preflop which means other than single clubs you're probably less likely to clear out hands you want to clear out. I'm sure I won't take the time to attempt the math on this one. I'm sure it wouldn't be accurate if I did.

[krishanleong]

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So the flop isn't a bet for value situation????

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The preflop raiser is likely to raise, blowing away the field and making it HU. Not really the situation our hero would prefer.

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And when the pf raiser 3-bets my c/r?

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Just think about it for a second. Is it easier for callers to call 2 after already calling once with better pot odds? Or is it easier for them to call two cold on the flop with worse pot odds?

Krishan

[car ramrod]

I think you should check raise here, if utg raises after we bet, we may lose the cold callers. I want to trap them in and get at least 1 bet from them, probably 2. The flush card on the turn could be scary, but I think we get more +ev by check raising.
My experience is that most players will bet this flop after raising pf, so we can get some callers before we check raise.
Also, question, when someone raises utg do you give them more credit for a big hand than say a mp or lp raise, with no reads that is.

[me454555]

This is my thinking "Lets see, sitting on the right of the pfr and a big field behind him. This seems like a classic checkraise situation where I can trap the field for more bets when I have a huge amount of pot equity."

I'm pretty sure you were thinking something similar but decided to bet out instead. Why?

[Nick C]

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Why would you c/r?

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For value.

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I think a checkraise could be for value, but I wonder how many callers we need. A straight is going to come in by the river without a third club also falling only about 19.5 percent of the time. And while there certainly doesn't have to be a flush draw out there, the chances that there is go up as more people stay in.

Our overcards have potential value too, of course, and the chances that we're not up against an overpair are greater when we're checkraising a single bet than they would be if we bet and got raised. Still, we could catch a pair and end up losing in a number of ways. Also, the number of preflop cold-callers does somewhat increase the chances we're up against an overpair to the board or even a set.

We do also have a backdoor flush, though.

Still, if we check, the PFR bets, and then there's a raise, I'm not sure I'd want to check/3-bet all that much.

I guess what I'm wondering is, if we check, under what circumstances should we carry through with the raise?

[MarkD]

Maybe I play bad but I think I play this the simple way: I check with the intention of calling.

[djoyce003]

apparently a long discussion on this one, but I think you have to check raise, I don't want utg raising and folding everyone out of this pot, and I want to build a really big pot with my strong draw. Might be dodging clubs, so i've got either 6 or 8 outs to the nuts, depending on if any flush draws exist. Even if nobody has 2 clubs, they might pick up a flush draw on the turn. I want people to pay me off if my straight hits, so I try to build a big pot on the flop.

[sfer]

CDC is either putting 2 bets to checkraise or hoping to put 2 bets by calling UTG's raise. Which option gives him a chance of cleaning up something like 3 outs? Or, if you were UTG, wouldn't you raise overcards to clear out the field?

[Chris Daddy Cool]

sup dudes.

fyi, i usually check and call or check and raise this situation.

i used to use this line though from time to time in short handed pots against some weaker players who i could get to fold and i would bluff my way through or get lucky and spike one of my outs. but those who think betting is highly -EV, they're wrong. at worst it costs a fraction of a small bet, imo.

btw, for all the c/r's out there, there's a good chance i can 3-bet this flop if i'm raised and get a bunch of coldcallers.

anyways. i bet this flop. utg folded /images/graemlins/blush.gif. cc1 calls. cc2 and cc3 fold too. HU. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

turn brings a low heart giving me a redraw so i bet and cc1 calls.

QUESTION: should i fire the third barrel if i brick? i have 9 high after all?



anyways, i river the 5 for my straight and bet and he calls and obviously MHIG.

[mr pink]

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QUESTION: should i fire the third barrel if i brick? i have 9 high after all?


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he could be on a club draw, and it doesn't have to work very often for it to show a profit. i'd bet it.