You have KK so the chances of villain having AK... [Archive]

View Full Version : You have KK so the chances of villain having AK...

chaz64

03-17-2005, 12:57 PM

...are lower than normal, I would think.

I was trying to figure this out after this hand:

PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
4 folds, MP2 raises, Hero 3-bets, 4 folds, MP2 caps, Hero calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
MP2 bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
MP2 bets, Hero calls.

River: (7.75 BB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
MP2 bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 9.75 BB

If we assume villain caps with AA, KK, QQ, AK, then I'm beat by AA/QQ, but ahead of AK.

Calling him down from the flop, I'm getting 2.9:1 effective odds. Neglecting another KK, I'm behind AA and QQ which occur 0.9% of the time but I think I'm still against AK often enough to call here.

AK occurs 1.2% of the time, so with half the kings out of the deck does this mean that it would now occur 0.6% of the time?

I'm not sure if this is right, can someone tell me if I'm off the mark here? Comments appreciated.

Spladle Master

03-17-2005, 01:23 PM

Don't forget the RBF.

chapstick

03-17-2005, 02:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Don't forget the RBF.

[/ QUOTE ]

RBF? Rich boy factor? Ridiculous betting factor?

M.B.E.

03-17-2005, 03:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
4 folds, MP2 raises, Hero 3-bets, 4 folds, MP2 caps, Hero calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)

...

If we assume villain caps with AA, KK, QQ, AK, then I'm beat by AA/QQ, but ahead of AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's four aces unaccounted for, two kings, and three queens. That means your opponent could have:

AA: 6 combinations
KK: 1 combination
QQ: 3 combinations
AK: 8 combinations

That's 18 total, and you have assumed because of his preflop cap that he does not have any hand other than these 18. So on that flop the probability is 44.4% that you are currently ahead and 50% that you are currently behind. I don't know where you came up with your figures of 1.2% and 0.9%; they are way off.

Of course this hinges on your assumption that your opponent would definitely have capped it with AA/KK/QQ/AK and no other hands. That's a doubtful assumption.

chaz64

03-17-2005, 04:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know where you came up with your figures of 1.2% and 0.9%; they are way off.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are dealt AK (or any one off-suit non-pair) 1.2% of the time, and AA (or any specific pocket pair) 0.45% of the time.

Poker Odds (http://www.homepokergames.com/odds.php)

Pre-flop there are no queens unaccounted for, but there are two kings out. I guess the chance he has QQ is lower since one is out on the flop, but I had figured 0.45 x 2 = 0.9 for AA or QQ. I was just trying to get a feel for the relative chance of being up against AA/QQ rather than AK.

Looks like my chances of being good or splitting were even better than I first thought. Thanks for your help.

chaz64

03-17-2005, 04:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Don't forget the RBF.

[/ QUOTE ]

RBF? Rich boy factor? Ridiculous betting factor?

[/ QUOTE ]

RBF explained (http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_magazine/archives/?a_id=13428&m_id=70)

blingice

03-17-2005, 05:24 PM

Why do you assume he has a REALLY good hand?
I saw Phil Hellmuth on 100/200 yesterday cap preflop with
A /images/graemlins/club.gif4 /images/graemlins/club.gif

/images/graemlins/grin.gif

Bling.