3 River Decisions (Value Bet or Check) [Archive]

View Full Version : 3 River Decisions (Value Bet or Check)

spydog

03-17-2005, 12:53 PM

Apologies to those who will be offended by multiple hands in one post.

HAND 1

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif.
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 3 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP2 3-bets, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (10.33 SB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
UTG+2 checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (6.66 BB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
UTG+2 checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls.

River: (9.66 BB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
UTG+2 checks, MP2 checks, Hero......

HAND 2

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
6 folds, CO calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB calls, CO calls.

Flop: (6.33 SB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
BB checks, CO checks, Hero bets, BB folds, CO calls.

Turn: (4.16 BB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets, CO calls.

River: (6.16 BB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
CO checks, Hero ......

HAND 3

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif.
6 folds, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (2 SB) K/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls.

Turn: (2 BB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls.

River: (4 BB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero .......

27offsooot

03-17-2005, 01:21 PM

1: Check
2: Bet/ fold
3: somewhat opponent dependent, but i say bet/fold ( i can see checking though)

IsaacW

03-17-2005, 01:24 PM

1. Check; there aren't many worse hands here calling you, and you have to fold to a raise.

2. Bet; he'd have to be on the runner runner flush or straight draw or have QJ to be ahead of you here, and there are lots of worse hands that will call. Many of the straight hands would have been open-raised and not limped. You can safely fold to a check/raise.

3. Check; again, there aren't many worse hands that are calling on the river, and you'd have to fold to a raise.

EDIT: These are all readless lines.

crunchy1

03-17-2005, 01:24 PM

Interesting hands!

#1 & #3 seem like easy checks as the only hands that villian(s) call with on the river are hands that have you beat and getting check raised would really suck.

#2 is a little bit more interesting given that the straight and flush both got there on the river. I think this is still a value bet. I don't think you'll get raised here that often even when you are beat beacuse the board is too scary. When you do get raised I think it's a fairly easy fold (read dependent!).

meep_42

03-17-2005, 01:29 PM

1. Check.
2. Bet/fold.
3. Bet.

I originally said check on #2 -- but I think you'll get a lot of 1-pair calls, as well as calls (and not raises) from a 8/K)

-d

27offsooot

03-17-2005, 01:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]

3. Check; again, there aren't many worse hands that are calling on the river, and you'd have to fold to a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that some opponents will call with a busted ace high flush draw HU. Also, a smaller pp will call. And it's an easy fold if c/red. But, I agree, it's a very marginal value bet.

stonecoldnuts

03-17-2005, 02:12 PM

1. check
2. bet
3. bet

crunchy1

03-17-2005, 02:48 PM

I looked at this some more and am revising my response to #3 to: BET. It's tough w/o reads but with SB limping PF I think that you would've already been raised on the turn with a K or PP > your 7's. I also think that SB would typically lead out if he paired the J on the river. I think you'll get called down enough times with a weak A or a smaller pair that you beat to make this bet profitable.

djoyce003

03-17-2005, 03:27 PM

I value bet 1 and 3, check 2

Hand 1 - I'm really concerned that you have 2 opponents here, but neither has shown agression. YOu might get called by a lower PP or a pair of threes....it's very marginal though because there are 2 opponents...one likely has a busted flush draw, not sure what the other might have.

Hand 2 - I think he calls you with an 8 here, check raises you with a king....the reason I check is because I think the only thing that calls me beats me, everything else folds, and I don't want to be checkraised here, I take the free showdown.

Hand 3 - he hasn't bothered to show any agression yet, he might be calling down with ace high, or a lower pair than yours.

Stefan Prodan

03-17-2005, 03:42 PM

Maybe I'm weak, but I check all three. I just don't see enough possibilities of things people will call down with online that will make it profitable for you.

Someone said earlier that in hand #3 he would raise you with a pocket pair higher than 7s, but I'm pretty sure that's not a common play on party 3/6. Maybe if you already knew he was a solid player, but I would not make that read on an average 3/6 player. I would assume he had top pair or better and probably be right 70% of the time if I got raised there.

I find a lot of the time that people at this level love to call to the river with stuff you can beat, and then fold it. Therefore, it becomes correct more often to check on the river, while betting up to the river so they don't get a free card.

Fat Nicky

03-17-2005, 03:59 PM

Hand 1: Bet. Neither of your opponents have shown any aggression yet besides the limp-reraise by MP2 pre-flop. Based on his postflop play, it doesn't look like he has a big pair, he prob has something like AK or AQ. UTG+2 has just been calling along the whole time, he could have anything from KQ to 66. I'd bet and hope to get paid off by at least one of these players. You have no reason to believe you don't have the best hand.

Hand 2: Bet. you will get paid off if he's holding a lone 10 or a weaker Q.

Hand 3: The closes one IMO. I'd check. I don't see a worse hand calling nearly enough to make this bet profitable. It is close though.

Stefan Prodan

03-17-2005, 04:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 1: Bet. Neither of your opponents have shown any aggression yet besides the limp-reraise by MP2 pre-flop. Based on his postflop play, it doesn't look like he has a big pair, he prob has something like AK or AQ. UTG+2 has just been calling along the whole time, he could have anything from KQ to 66. I'd bet and hope to get paid off by at least one of these players. You have no reason to believe you don't have the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't all you have to consider though. It's the chance that you have the best hand when you are called.

Now that I look back on it, I can see betting on hand two, but I just don't think people are going to call ace-high or whatever often enough for it to be profitable there, but like I said above, my experience with low-level party players is that they love to call to the river, then fold when they don't make something. I very rarely see them call down on the river with less than 2nd pair. It's probably close though, whatever the right answer is, and depends
entirely on the player.

Actually now that I think about it again, it may be worth it to bet in hand 1 to hope to avoid showing down your pair and possibly removing the possibility of bluffing someoe off top pair, low kicker on another hand. It's probably a slim possibility that they're even paying attention, but it's there. Anyway like I said I think it's a close play no matter what because the chance of them calling is pretty small.