Stealing on bubble with 10-13xbb

[sofere]

Something I have a problem with. I think I play pretty well short stacked and large stacked, but just above 10xbb is a leak for me. Mainly I don't know when to push or when to standard raise.

Example:
Hero dealt (a) A8o, (b) 66, (c) QJs

Blinds 75/150
UTG - 6000
Hero - 1750
SB - 4000
BB - 1750

UTG Folds...Hero?

[1C5]

Good question, lookinf forward to what people say...

[Scuba Chuck]

I think the following...

66 - EZ push
QJs - A little tougher. If blinds will be rising by the next time I'm the BB, I'd push. Otherwise, I'm sure I'm folding this. Note that QJs ranks higher than A8o, in column A & B. Eastbay's work (http://sitngo-analyzer.com/poker/hand-rankings.html)

A8o - generally, I'd raise here. 3xBB. If it's called and checked to you on the flop, just push.

You chose interesting hands here. They are all very similarly ranked. Generally, I like made hands, so 66, which is a top 9% hand is a very easy decision. You could go either way on the other two. And it all depends on your opponents calling standards. For example, if you know your opponents will only call if they have an Ace, then QJs might be a significantly better choice as you have a high probability of having two live cards.

[Bluff Daddy]

I raise to 350-400 but I vary this depending on how the blinds act. If they normally fold to any raise then I like to just min raise so im not risking any more chips. By this point you should know what what they normally will do to a raise in the blinds. Id rather push the 6's though and raise the other two.

[sofere]

When you're 10-13xbb, are low to mid pockets always all-in fold? Would there ever be a case to just raise them?

Also, how would you feel about 22 in that situation? How about 66 if you were UTG and big stack was button? My gut says to fold both.

[Bluff Daddy]

[ QUOTE ]
When you're 10-13xbb, are low to mid pockets always all-in fold? Would there ever be a case to just raise them?

Also, how would you feel about 22 in that situation? How about 66 if you were UTG and big stack was button? My gut says to fold both.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont think there would ever be a good case to just raise with them unless you are going to push on the flop regardless

[codewarrior]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero dealt (a) A8o, (b) 66, (c) QJs

Blinds 75/150
UTG - 6000
Hero - 1750
SB - 4000
BB - 1750

UTG Folds...Hero?

[/ QUOTE ]


(a) raise to 3xBB (maybe best hand without improvement, can fold to a massive re-raise which is probably not a bluff unless you've been caught stealing with pocket turds one time too many).
(b) push (I don't want company here, but I'll toss the coin with this at this point if called).
(c) raise or fold (We'll get arguments about this one. This starting hand just sucks for too many reasons. Actually, I think I like a limp here as a gear change rather than raise or fold).

[codewarrior]

22 in this situation is a fold. 66 UTG w/ big stack on Button is a raise - he won't necessarily call along for the ride with junk here as he would if you just called, so it's raise or fold. We are four-handed here, so I raise.

[proell]

Assuming blinds are 150/75, giving you about 12x BB, all of the moves are +chipEV, but I think both a & c are questionable pushes.

FWIW, a simple EV algorithm shows that 66's are the most solid and QJs the most questionable (as we all could probably guess). I would guess that QJs would not be +$EV, anyone care to run that scenario?

fwiw, here are the straight EV numbers I got:

a) +3.7%
b) +6.9%
c) +1.1%


so I say, push the 66, probably the A8, and fold the QJ.

[Bluff Daddy]

[ QUOTE ]
22 in this situation is a fold. 66 UTG w/ big stack on Button is a raise - he won't necessarily call along for the ride with junk here as he would if you just called, so it's raise or fold. We are four-handed here, so I raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Any hand at this point is a raise or fold, 6's though is a must push imo. What are you goin to do when you get called the flop is all over cards which is prob going to be the case and the sb or bb bet out

[sofere]

Did you run those numbers against any 2 or against hands that would likely call?

[proell]

Likely calling hands (hands that would call you if you were to show your cards).

[codewarrior]

I think I said that. I was illustrating why a limp with 66 UTG would not be good, since I was talking about creative play earlier.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
Likely calling hands (hands that would call you if you were to show your cards).

[/ QUOTE ]

does that mean only hands that have you beat PF?

[curtains]

I would push with all 3 hands here.

[curtains]

According to my numbers, QJs is about even money here if you turn your hand face up, but thats assuming that hands like K2o-K8 will call you, which they obviously won't. This makes it an easy allin IMO. 4 handed you only have so many oppurtunities, this is one of them.

[Bigwig]

I'd standard raise all 3 of them. I see no need to push preflop, and wouldn't. I'm perfectly comfortable playing post flop.

Holla?

[sofere]

[ QUOTE ]

I would push with all 3 hands here.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you push all 3, what hands (if any) would you non-push raise with? I'm assumming premium hands, but any others?

[proell]

Excellent point. Though I still thing QJs is questionable here, especially with 12BB left and not the definintive short stack at the table. Not sure the value is there.

But then again, that's just me ad I may still be playing these situations to cautiosly.

[curtains]

I think I'd need a few more chips to not push raise everything. I probably wont push raise premium hands. This should be an obvious tell but somehow someone goes allin every time, so it doesn't really matter if I'm completely transparent.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
When you're 10-13xbb, are low to mid pockets always all-in fold? Would there ever be a case to just raise them?

Also, how would you feel about 22 in that situation? How about 66 if you were UTG and big stack was button? My gut says to fold both.


[/ QUOTE ]

Before deciding to raise, be sure to go through your entire strategy process of what you will do next. Because if you decide that you would fold to a reraise, you might want to consider folding here IMO If you had a healthier stack, then just raising and folding to a large stack reraise might be considered.


How do I feel about 66 from UTG, against the big stack? Considering all the same factors are the same as your first example, I'd fold. I don't like 66 against this size big stack, especially from UTG. Some important factors to consider. If big stack were the SB, he is not so ready to defend his blinds, as they are smaller, and more importantly, there is someone behind him yet to act. If big stack is the BB, on the other hand, he has a sign on his desk that says "the buck stops here." He may decide to defend his blinds with a hand he might fold from the button. He might consider risking 1/3 of his chips on a perceived coinflip hand. But from the SB, he is less likely to play that way.

IMO, if you're playing pocket pairs below KK, you're putting all your chips in the middle or folding. I don't normally raise with them because I'm generally not interested in inducing a call. Anyone willing to call a raise vs. an allin will likely have overcards. So he gets a cheaper look at the flop, than calling my allin. Bleh. In SNGs, middle pairs on up run very well hot and cold.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, a simple EV algorithm shows that 66's are the most solid and QJs the most questionable (as we all could probably guess). I would guess that QJs would not be +$EV, anyone care to run that scenario?

fwiw, here are the straight EV numbers I got:

a) +3.7%
b) +6.9%
c) +1.1%

[/ QUOTE ]

Intuitively, it seems to me that A8o and QJs should have pretty similar $EV results. Based on your calling range, there are fewer hands that would have a queen or a jack, than an Ace. 17 hands in your range have an ace. Only 11 hands have a Queen or a Jack. Furthermore, hands like 88, 99 and TT fair much better against A8o, than QJs.

What's your calling range?

[Degen]

push

Degen