Folding KK

[Drewboy22]

6-handed SNG Pokerstars ($35 +3) 5 left.

Blinds are 50-100.
Chip Counts:

SB 2200
BB (me) 1700
UTG 1500
CO 1700
Button 2400

I'm dealt KK.

UTG limps
CO limps
Button raises All-in.
SB quickly calls.

My reads on both Button and SB so far is that they are pretty tight. I am sure one of them has AA so I fold. I kept thinking about Sklansky's chapter on folding KK early in a tournament. I also felt that I was one of the better players at the table and did not want to get busted out on a coin flip.
Any comments would be appreciated.

I'll post results later.

[TylerD]

Firstly Sklansky did not play $33 SnG's online - he was talking about large buy-in, multi-table, live tournaments where there is plenty of play and plenty of time to build a stack.

Secondly, do you really think the button would play Aces like this? Sure, he could be a nut but typical players want to get value from their big hands and will slowplay them - min raising or raising enough to "keep people in". As for the SB, he could a very wide variety of hands AK - AJ, a pocket pair, or might figure the button was on a steal (very possible given the limpers) and might call with many more marginal hands.

Thirdly, you can never be facing a coinflip with KK, you're either severely dominated (by AA) or are a huge favourite.

If you never fold KK preflop in an SnG you will (virtually) never be making a mistake.

[Mr_J]

Yeh I don't see how you can fold.

"did not want to get busted out on a coin flip."

Most of the time you'll be at worst 50% to win the hand and triple up. Up against 2 or 3 outers. Even if you were only 50% , you're passing up a 100% advantage...

[therock]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm dealt KK.

UTG limps
CO limps
Button raises All-in.
SB quickly calls.

My reads on both Button and SB so far is that they are pretty tight. I am sure one of them has AA so I fold.

[/ QUOTE ]


You have been reading too many of Scuba Chuck's post. These tournaments are too short to be putting people on AA and folding.

[stigmata]

I had exactly the same situation yesterday, and I got busted by AA /images/graemlins/mad.gif

However, I call 100% of the time, unless I think my fold will get me ITM. Not sure if that is correct, but there are so many donks at these games (tight or not) that I fancy my chances to double or treble.

[Drewboy22]

Thanks for your replies.

You have confirmed my fears that I screwed up. I think I have my head in too many books right now and it is now clear to me that I misinterpreted the information. Here are the results:

Button had AKo
SB had QJs

board was all uncoordinated rags.

My KK would have held up. Doh!

Thanks again for your comments...I learn more every day on this site.

and who the eff is Scuba Chuck?

Drewboy22

[john_]

I had typed out the quick call doesn't always mean strength. QJ suited calling that all in is really loose(if they were really tight maybe they "misfired" thus the quick call)...Although lots of players at lower limit buy in STTs will put into the pot with weak hands on their blinds. Lets say they all had real hands you still have to put your money in. Here's the situations:

Situation 1:
One of them has Ax(AK,AQ,etc.) the other has a lower pocket pair(QQ,JJ,etc.). Here you have 56% equity at tripling up.

Situation 2:
They both have lower pocket pairs(JJ,QQ). Less likely but you're 2 to 1 favorite at doubling up.

Situation 3:
One of them has aces and you're a big dog.

Situation 4:
One of them has KK the other has Ax. Low variance "coinflip"... 2/3rds of the time you split the other guys money.

Situation 5:
Same as above but replace Ax with a smaller pocket pair. Your equity goes up somewhat now you're about 80% to split.

Maybe if the buy-in was higher, there were more players & blinds were lower you could debate putting this down.

[Voltron87]

Folding KK preflop 6 handed? Never do it.

[BradleyT]

[ QUOTE ]
I had exactly the same situation yesterday, and I got busted by AA /images/graemlins/mad.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

You forget about the other 150 times you were up against QQ, JJ, TT, 99, 88, AK, AQ, AJ....

[mosch]

I fold there approximately zero percent of the time.

In Harrington on Hold'em he has a sample hand where he read his opponent for aces... got all-in with kings, and his opponent had aces.

He said something along the lines of 'sometimes they'll have aces, and you'll feel stupid.' Most of the time they won't.

[john_]

I'd probably fold with 3 tight players with decent stacks all-in in front of me.

[nortonmalc]

With only 5 people left, even if it is a 6 handed starting table is not considered early table play. Plus, remember that the STTs with the 10 minute levels require you to make the most out of the few premium hands you see. Having KK and getting no callers sucks. Having two people all-in before you and looking down at KK is euphoria.

[EarlCat]

[ QUOTE ]
My KK would have held up. Doh!

[/ QUOTE ]

Call was probably the answer here, but a fold shows you've got some serious dicipline (maybe too much?). How did you end up doing in the tournament?

[Drewboy22]

Sadly I busted out in 4h place when my all-in JJ was called by Ax and an ace hit the flop.

Thanks again for everyone's input on my bad play...lol.

Drewboy22

[KenProspero]

You know, I think the odds are far higher that Both button and SB have One Ace, than they are that either has two.

You may come up against AA and lose, or more likely one or both has an A and an A hits the table. However, you're a big favorite.

Except in extremely unusual circumstances (say you have 50 chips left on the bubble, so your chances of finishing ITM are best if one of the two all-inners busts out) I'm all in here.

[yecul]

I think this is a definitely call. If you're up against AA then so be it. More likely than not you're a huge favorite to get a big stack. Play for first.

[Spladle Master]

[ QUOTE ]
I also felt that I was one of the better players at the table and did not want to get busted out on a coin flip.
Any comments would be appreciated.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this was your actual reasoning then you are obviously NOT one of the better players at the table.

Also, this is a bad fold.

[Slim Pickens]

It's a widely known fact that Phil Helmuth is the only player in the world good enough to fold kings preflop. Unless you are Phil Helmuth, don't fold.

Slim

[Bigwig]

Folding KK here is horrible.

Also, you will never be in a 'coin flip' with KK. You're either a big favorite, or a big dog to you know what.

[curtains]

There is nowhere that Sklansky would ever recommend folding KK in any situation even remotely similar to this.

Calling is automatic

[Slim Pickens]

I think he meant "coin race."

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
I think he meant "coin race."

[/ QUOTE ]

That like a cannonball?

[valenzuela]

With all respect..if you fold [censored] kings pre-flop with 17x the BB you cant be one of the best players.

[ColdestCall]

KK in a 5 handed game is a VERY big hand. Do whatever you can preflop to get all of your chips in the center. Do NOT try to outsmart yourself.

The only possible exception I can see to this is the action going something like UTG - all in, CO - all in, Button - all-in, SB - all-in, BB folds.

[curtains]

KK in a 15 handed game is a VERY big hand!!

[valenzuela]

I used to think QQ had to be folded preflop after big raises and I was corrected,you will be correcting some guy who folded tens in level 13 in a month or two /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Slim Pickens]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think he meant "coin race."

[/ QUOTE ]

That like a cannonball?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not exactly sure, but Vince Van Patton would know.

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think he meant "coin race."

[/ QUOTE ]

That like a cannonball?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not exactly sure, but Vince Van Patton would know.

[/ QUOTE ]

The only thing Vince might know that I want to know is Shana Hiatt's phone number.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
You have been reading too many of Scuba Chuck's post. These tournaments are too short to be putting people on AA and folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

I take offense to that. Who folds KK ever? I was gonna post the following on here.

This is the best advice here...

[ QUOTE ]
If you never fold KK preflop in an SnG you will (virtually) never be making a mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Slim Pickens]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think he meant "coin race."

[/ QUOTE ]

That like a cannonball?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not exactly sure, but Vince Van Patton would know.

[/ QUOTE ]

The only thing Vince might know that I want to know is Shana Hiatt's phone number.

[/ QUOTE ]

Me too, but if I get it I'm not sharing. Vince might know not to fold kings preflop.

[Scuba Chuck]

All right, I'm steamed now.

This is an immensely +$EV call here. Immensely over folding. Rarely will you ever see me recommend (or do) a play that will have such immense +$EV plays.

The probability that SB has AA is 0.2%. I would have put SB on AK or JJ at best.

Ran through poker stove.
Range of hands for Button: A7+, 66+, KJs+, KQ, QJs
Range of hands for SB: 88+, AQ+

Pokerstove results
Hero: 57.5% win probability
SB: 23.3% win probability
Button: 19.22% win probability

I might give opponents too much credit for hand strengths (obviously represented here by SB), but folding KK is an impossibility for me here.

Who the hell is "therock" anyway?

[renodoc]

I would never fold this at this level and if I lost I would just buy in to the next SNG. If I win I beat up this table.

[curtains]

The chance that the SB has AA is much higher than 0.2% Of course this doesn't change the fact that this is an easy call.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
The chance that the SB has AA is much higher than 0.2% Of course this doesn't change the fact that this is an easy call.

[/ QUOTE ]

It is?

6 ways to make AA. 2,574 total hand combinations. Math comes to .00233. So you're right, it's 0.033% higher. Is that what you mean by "much" higher? Or do you do the 1 hand out of 169 total hand combos for 0.59%. This is incorrect. It doubles the probabilites for pairs.

[curtains]

It's much higher than .2% because he put all his money in the pot. That should eliminate about 70-80+% of all holdem hands.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
It's much higher than .2% because he put all his money in the pot. That should eliminate about 70-80+% of all holdem hands.


[/ QUOTE ]

OK you got me. Based on that assumption, and my calling range, we're giving about an 8% probability SB has AA.

[pastabatman]

What's the concenus on the highest pair you would fold in this situation? I'm thinking I would fold JJ. Not sure about QQ - I've been bit too many times.

Pasta

[blingice]

[ QUOTE ]
I am sure one of them has AA so I fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think you're Phil Hellmuth? Call with your awesome hand. You've got them beat. One probably has AKs and the other QQ or JJ. Or, the raiser may be bluffing and the caller has AKs, QQ, or JJ.


/images/graemlins/grin.gif



Bling.

[Slim Pickens]

[ QUOTE ]
It's a widely known fact that Phil Helmuth is the only player in the world good enough to fold kings preflop. Unless you are Phil Helmuth, don't fold.

Slim

[/ QUOTE ]

I wonder if Phil Hellmuth would fold kings if somebody misspelled his name enough times.