I hate "playing to win"...

[otnemem]

So disappointed...

Stars $30 rebuy qualifier to the WSOP. I've been short stacked from the get go. Three rebuys and one add-on, always going in with the best of it but losing nonetheless. I understand - it happens. So I'm $150 deep in a $30 tourney. My $3500 stack (half the average) sinks to $2000. But what a rush I hit next, doubling up a few times and now I'm over $20,000 and finally feeling like I have a shot. I "exist" around this level for a couple orbits until I hit another great rush, doubling up twice with monsters and now I'm over $80,000, and near the top of the leaderboad. 22 left now. Pays 9, but I don't care about 3-9 - I just want one of those coveted seats. Blinds are 1500-3000 and I have about $79,000, around fifth place overall. MP, with about 45,000, raises to 15,000. I push with AK in CO. BB pushes over the top of me. MP folds, and my AK's run into AA. No help, and my isolation move is a huge bust. Anyone play this one differently? Remember, only 1st and 2nd matter to me. How do I play this differently. Say I just call the 15,000, then the BB pushes, then what? Please help me out, as I think I f-cked this one up big time...

[TexTiger]

A 5xBB raise smacks of a high pair, probably AA or KK, and if first/second place is the only thing that matters, then you fold here and wait for a better chance. AK against that raise is probably dominated, or a coin flip to QQ at best. With 22 people left, there is a long way to go yet.

Just on a side note, I don't know why you don't care about 3-8. Those places pay out $650, enough for the entry into the Sunday WSOP qualifier which is going to give out a whole lot more than just 2 seats.

TT

[otnemem]

I probably mis-stated. It's not that I wouldn't like 3-9. It's just that I've been playing the tourney for 3 1/2 hours, and would be kind of bummed to just win a couple hundred bucks. I was really gunning for that seat (as was everyone, I assume).

EDIT: 5-6x was his standard raise. He was even pushing for around 30,000 when the blinds were 1-2K

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
A 5xBB raise smacks of a high pair, probably AA or KK, and if first/second place is the only thing that matters, then you fold here and wait for a better chance. AK against that raise is probably dominated, or a coin flip to QQ at best. With 22 people left, there is a long way to go yet.

Just on a side note, I don't know why you don't care about 3-8. Those places pay out $650, enough for the entry into the Sunday WSOP qualifier which is going to give out a whole lot more than just 2 seats.

TT

[/ QUOTE ]

this is really bad advice.

you know you were supposed to push - you just got unlucky.

[schwza]

oh, and incidentally, the fact that hero is playing to win (or top 2 anyway) makes this more of a clear push. if there were value in squeaking up the ladder one more spot, this would be an argument towards folding (but you still wouldn't fold).

[Shorty35]

I agree. You had a lot of fold equity and a hand VERY unlikely to be dominated. It was a good move that just didnt work out.

If it makes you feel better, I tried a stop n go in the same position with the same hand in another WSOP tourney (I had a smaller stack than you did). Flop comes A rag, rag. I push --- villan turns up AA and IGH. It happens.

[otnemem]

[ QUOTE ]
you know you were supposed to push - you just got unlucky.

[/ QUOTE ]

Reading over my original post again, I would be tempted to reply the same way. It's a relatively low content post. But is there any merit to the idea of even throwing away a big hand like this and waiting to hit a good flop later, getting it in when I'm certain I have the best of it? Or with big stacks behind me, is this still an obvious push/

[TexTiger]

Ok, maybe this is just me, and a major leak in my game, but why are you supposed to push? By pushing you're giving the BB roughly 3-1 pot odds to call with a good hand by his going all in(1500+3000 blinds + ~900 antes + 15000 + 79000 = ~99400/30000 remaining stack = 3.3:1) against what is AK v 2 under cards at best, vs AA at worst. If you make the push first, that's a different story as it puts him at less than 2:1 odds to call with his 45k. But pushing and giving him the pot odds to call doesn't seem too smart.

Please elaborate at to why I am looking at this the wrong way. I have been guilty of making similar plays lately, and I have come out on the short end of the stick, so maybe that is clouding my judgement a bit.

TT

[otnemem]

Pushing 80K with 3K BB is bad, bad, bad in my opinion if you're opening. However, pushing when I have about 2X his stack really puts him to the test. He doesn't know that I have AK. So if he has any pair from 2s to Qs, he has a very slight advantage. Either a slight advantage or he's way behind if I have a pair bigger than him. By pushing, it really puts him to the test. Even though he has the right odds, he has to base his decision on whether he's willing to bust out with whatever hand he holds. So if he's raising with 6s-9s, there's a good possibility that he'll lay it down fearing a bigger pair.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
By pushing you're giving the BB roughly 3-1 pot odds

[/ QUOTE ]

you're actually giving the original raiser these odds.

[ QUOTE ]
against what is AK v 2 under cards at best

[/ QUOTE ]

what's actually best (and probably most likely) is that he has AQ. then you're about 75% to win the hand. are you arguing that hero should fold? i hope not. calling is better, but hero will have a tough choice if he misses the flop and villain pushes. hero will have to risk throwing away the best hand or paying when he's way behind. also that opens the door for more players to come in.

also, if you can get him to fold without a showdown, that'd be great for hero, adding about 20k with no risk. villain has good odds to call, but there's still some chance he'll fold.

[ QUOTE ]
By pushing you're giving the BB roughly 3-1 pot odds to call with a good hand by his going all in(1500+3000 blinds + ~900 antes + 15000 + 79000 = ~99400/30000 remaining stack = 3.3:1)

[/ QUOTE ]

you made a mistake here. you can't count all of hero's 79k stack b/c villain can't match it. hero's bet should only be counted as 45k for the purposes of figuring out villain's pot odds.

edit: forgot to add that sklansky gives a rule of thumb on pushing with AK. he says any time your stack is 2x-5x the pot, you should probably push. (and that pushing with 7x is not great, but still ok.)

[TexTiger]

I'm not advocating pushing with 80k to open with blinds at 3000. However, making the push against a bigger stack, who has to call more, therefore lowering the pot odds makes more sense to me than taking a 50/50 chance (if he has 22-qq) and giving the lower stack 3-1 pot odds. If he's raising 1/3 of his stack in MP, sure it looks like a steal, but I would rather call with that hand and see the flop and see what he does than put myself in a position to lose over half my stack for a coin flip. Only losing $15k with that hand isn't so bad...losing $45k puts a big dent in your stack. Sure, if an A or K hits on the flop you're probably going to put him all in depending on what he does first, but at least at that point you know you are a favorite over a mid pair.

Again, this is probably one of the biggest leaks in my game...how I play AK with a larger stack against a smaller stack.

TT

[AtticusFinch]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you know you were supposed to push - you just got unlucky.

[/ QUOTE ]

Reading over my original post again, I would be tempted to reply the same way. It's a relatively low content post. But is there any merit to the idea of even throwing away a big hand like this and waiting to hit a good flop later, getting it in when I'm certain I have the best of it? Or with big stacks behind me, is this still an obvious push/

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a clear push. With a caller in front you can think about folding. You were just unlucky. That's poker.

[otnemem]

Just calling here I think is the worst play I could make. There are a number of hands that will pay me off as big underdogs - AQ, AJ, maybe even A10 if he's impatient, could even add KQ suited to the list. There are also a huge number of hands that I'm barely a dog - any pair smaller than kings. If he has kings, that me makes him 2-1 (I think?) and aces have me pretty much crushed. So in most situations, I'm either way ahead or slightly behind. In two situations I'm dominated. There's also A) the possibility that he has AK and we split or B) he has AK and lays it down, though that doesn't seem likely. I don't like calling because I don't want to be out played by a worse hand after the flop for roughly a fifth of my stack. It is also an isolation method. A raise and then an all-in reraise will get a lot of hands behind you to fold, even Qs. I happened to run into one of the few instacall situations...

IMO AK is a more powerful pushing hand than calling hand, as most of the time you're either far ahead or a little behind... It's like a preflop semi-bluff...

[MLG]

Stop n Going with AK is almost never right. You fold weaker Aces on the flop, but almost never pairs.

[betgo]

You had to push. I wouldn't take 5xBB to be AA or KK. It is more likely a strong hand like QQ-TT or AK-AQ. Anyway, you have to reraise with AK here. The money isn't deep enough to get away from AK. There really isn't much to this: AK vs. AA = bust out.

You also have to play for a seat. The 3rd-9th money is like 1/20th of the package for a seat.

[josie_wales]

[ QUOTE ]
A 5xBB raise smacks of a high pair, probably AA or KK, and if first/second place is the only thing that matters, then you fold here and wait for a better chance. AK against that raise is probably dominated, or a coin flip to QQ at best. With 22 people left, there is a long way to go yet.

TT

[/ QUOTE ]

So a 5x the BB raise means AA or KK? I always thought that was more in the "standard preflop raise range"?

So, if you feel he should fold AK, because he is against either AA or KK, then he should also fold KK (Since that would make it much more likely that the villain had AA.

Additionally, he should fold JJ and QQ as he is dominated.

And finally, no sense in playing AA vs AA, so muck AA as well since he could hit a flush if 4 of his suit come up.

I know that I am running a bit with your idea, but this seems to follow from your reasoning.

jw