Analyzing Bubble play

[whynot?]

Gang

i know it's a long discussed topic, but been looking at my bubble play to see if i have leaks there. net is finish first 16% of the time but ITM only about 33% so trying to figure out whats going on

So, one thing i was looking at is my VP$IP with number of playes left. Here's where I am

# of players VP$IP
6-8 28.74
4-5 34.74
2-3 52.04

overall it seems to make sense - more aggressiveness and playing more hands as # of players decrease, but I feel i've been too aggressive and getting caught in bubble play. Anyone have a quick analysis or comparable stats?

thanks

[Mr_J]

"but I feel i've been too aggressive and getting caught in bubble play"

I think you should be looking at your plays and not general stats. Post HHs.

BTW, what's your sample size?? ROI??

[whynot?]

absolutely agree that the real data is in the specific hand analysis but overall stats do give trending views. some of my points much like the general theme in this forum is i do tend to poooshh regularly esp when blinds get to lev 4 and up, so specific hand analysis has less meaning then overall strategy (if you get caught with a qt to an aq then the obvious point is you shouldnt have pushed but . . . )

for the record, ROI is 48% but somewhat meaningless for two reasons. one is largely skewed by a good run in steps and two it's only for 125 games.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
absolutely agree that the real data is in the specific hand analysis but overall stats do give trending views. some of my points much like the general theme in this forum is i do tend to poooshh regularly esp when blinds get to lev 4 and up, so specific hand analysis has less meaning then overall strategy (if you get caught with a qt to an aq then the obvious point is you shouldnt have pushed but . . . )

for the record, ROI is 48% but somewhat meaningless for two reasons. one is largely skewed by a good run in steps and two it's only for 125 games.

[/ QUOTE ]

where do you play? I ask this bc level 4 seems early for pushing regularly (as a general rule, stack size, # players left factor in obviously). Level 4 in my SNGs has t100 BBs with starting stacks of 1500. This is usually my tightest round.

[whynot?]

so thats good input - i play pp $30s - i do tend to push at lev 4 - typical scenario is im very tight til then - one of two scenarios usually - im either around 800 chips or i've come close to doubling having hit a hand - my sense is i open too much at lev 4 - probably should work towards staying at least even there and wait for the big move at lev 5 and up - interesting tho - when do most open up

[Slim Pickens]

Quick? Sorry can't help you. all I have is this long and boring one. (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=1907441&page=&view=&s b=5&o=&vc=1)

Slim

[proell]

Those are great posts, Slim.
I've been working on tracking my "plays" rather than my overall results lately as well because of the high sample requirement for (and relative uselessness of) things like ROI and ITM. By tracking "plays" I am able to get much higher numbers for greater confidence to determine if a particular "play" is working for me. And ultimately ROI and ITM tell me very little about my game in terms of what to do to improve it.

Great to see other people's approaches to these problems. Thanks!

[whynot?]

slim

good stuff and excellent analysis

again mines not statistically relevant but i do try to steal far more with mixed results at lev 4 and higher. think that leads to the pieces of data that i've been working through (and yes i need to/will do the same analysis to see what i come up with)

anyway - given i start aggressive pedal earlier then most that explains a higher hit rate and hence a lower ITM but also can explain why my win % is pretty high - 16% first in all games.

hmmm - something to look at for sure

[Slim Pickens]

FWIW I don't think Level 4 is too early to start stealing in a Party tournament. Depending on what happens in the first three levels you might not have to start until Level 5, but unless you've hit a big hand early, you'll need to do some level 4 stealing to:

a) have some folding equity left when the blinds go up again
b) keep your stack big so that you can double a larger number of chips if you do pick up a monster

[whynot?]

agree

is really driven whether you/i am in the 600-900 chip scenario or hit the hand early and at the 1400-1600 chip level

[pooh74]

yeah...i amend my previous post. Party would tend to cause a shift in gears much earlier given a nearly half in starting stack. I also wanted to say in my personal experience, I believe that although doubling up around level 4 etc...IS beneficial, obviously, for getting ITM, it at the same time has little bearing on where you finish in the top 3...post bubble play is so different that as long as stack sizes of remaining 3 arent vastly disproportionate, you're coming in 1st, 2nd or 3rd will not be so directly affected by you stack size starting the post bubble phase. So i dont believe that your observation that you have more 1sts than 2nds and thirds has much to do with you shifting gears earlier than most. It probably has more to do with ultra-agressive bubble/post bubble play.