One of the worst value bets ever? [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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riffraff

03-17-2005, 08:31 AM

I've been trying to work on increasing my Aggression. I took it a bit too far here I'm afraid. Even Clarkmeister may have checked this river! I have no stats on UTG+2.

Ultimate Bet 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with T/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, 1 fold, UTG+2 raises, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, 5 folds, UTG calls, UTG+2 caps, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
UTG checks, UTG+2 bets, Hero raises, UTG folds, UTG+2 3-bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (9.75 BB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
UTG+2 bets, Hero raises, UTG+2 calls.

River: (13.75 BB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 raises, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 17.75 BB

Results in white below: 
UTG+2 has Ks Kd (straight flush, king high).
Hero has Tc Th (three of a kind, tens).
Outcome: UTG+2 wins 17.75 BB.

Sykes

03-17-2005, 08:39 AM

Yes. You have to put UTG+2 on AA that doesn't contain a spade for your hand to be a winner here.

Oh yeah, Clark's thereom is total bs. If I have AK here, I'm calling your bet for the 93% chance that you don't have a spade.

SCfuji

03-17-2005, 08:46 AM

check behind unless you plan on folding to a check raise. i think UTG+2's fearlessness of the turned third spade screams a big pair with a big spade.

adsman

03-17-2005, 08:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Yes. You have to put UTG+2 on AA that doesn't contain a spade for your hand to be a winner here.

Oh yeah, Clark's thereom is total bs. If I have AK here, I'm calling your bet for the 93% chance that you don't have a spade.

[/ QUOTE ]

For Clarkmiesters therom to be applicable, you have to be the first to act. So obviously it doesn't apply here.

Sykes

03-17-2005, 08:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yes. You have to put UTG+2 on AA that doesn't contain a spade for your hand to be a winner here.

Oh yeah, Clark's thereom is total bs. If I have AK here, I'm calling your bet for the 93% chance that you don't have a spade.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok but if you reverse the order of how the hands were played here, I would call the river with AK/KQ

For Clarkmiesters therom to be applicable, you have to be the first to act. So obviously it doesn't apply here.

[/ QUOTE ]

pointcount

03-17-2005, 09:36 AM

check or at least bet/fold.

riffraff

03-17-2005, 09:48 AM

I didn't think anyone in their right mind would check this river if they had the As or Ks. From the action I really didn't put him on AK at all. Obviously I was thinking he had either AA or KK and when he checked, I figured I could bet for value. The check-raise convinced me I was beat but the pot was large so I paid him off to see it.

Definitely wish I had checked now tho =)

TomBrooks

03-17-2005, 10:52 AM

Interesting. It was UTG2 who got scared on the turn when you raised. He probably figured you for a flush, and if he was astute, he might have allowed you could have TT for a set also.

By his preflop action, without any reads that he's particularly loose, I think you have to assume UTG is on a monster pair, probably Qs or better, or AK suited.

Your raise on the turn looks good to me because unless he had QQ or two spades you were ahead. There are more hands your ahead of than behind here. His failure to three bet this turn would seem to indicate you were good. And if he had one spade you want to make him pay to see the river.

When the fourth card to an open ended straight flush fell on the river though, I think you have to be extra, extra careful. One extra for the flush and one extra for the open ended straight. If he didn't have QQ, now only if he has bullets without a spade are you safe. And you are now a less than even money favorite.

Also, on the river you stand to win no bets or maybe only one if you are ahead, because UTG will just make a crying call with AA if that. You stand to lose two bets though if UTG has made his straight or flush (or straight flush) and you fall into his web of deception.

From UTG's point of view, he took a chance on not making one bet to make two, figuring the way he backed off to your raise on the turn and his check on the river might be enough to induce you into overconfidence. Alternately, he figured you probably had a flush, very possibly the nut flush, and you were going to bet it.

Now when I can figure that all out while playing a hand, and not just when I have ten minutes to think about it, I will be doing pretty good.

=TomBk

Buckmulligan

03-17-2005, 11:07 AM

I think the root of your problems is your flop play. YOu are behind against every holding of UTG 2 ecept AK, and I am not sure he would lead into you if that is what he holds. I would fold to his flop bet; your raise was better than a call but I would still fold to the 3 bet.

TomBrooks

03-17-2005, 11:10 AM

True. Fold the flop to the three-bet.

I think hero's flop raise is good though because Villian might have bet out with AK and a raise would be a good way to test for that while the bets are still small.

riffraff

03-17-2005, 11:19 AM

Agreed I was playing a little fast here. I called the 3 bet because of the pot sized and implied odds if I hit a ten on the turn. (Of course if he has QQ then I'm doomed no matter what). I did not think he would cap AQ, so it's either AA, KK, AK or QQ and anything other than the QQ I'm going to make some bets if I spike my set. I'm still new to this added aggression thing so I'm bound to make some mistakes.

SCfuji

03-17-2005, 11:23 AM

reading this a second time i dont think this qualifies as a value bet. more like a you-bastard-redrawers-hit-a-spade-on-my-turned-set-tilt bet. either way its not a great bet as it accomplishes nothing but take money out of your pockets.

KaiShin

03-17-2005, 11:26 AM

Would anyone have just called the flop getting 13.5:1 to spike the set or improve in some other way?

SCfuji

03-17-2005, 11:29 AM

maybe if i had the T /images/graemlins/spade.gif in my hand

afk

03-17-2005, 11:31 AM

I don't like your flop raise. What hand do you put a preflop capper on that you're ahead of on the flop? I honestly don't think a flop fold would be horrible here - you have to make up a lot of bets on the turn and river if you want to draw.

Check the river behind, I don't think you're winning when called 55% of the time.

KaiShin

03-17-2005, 11:32 AM

[ QUOTE ]
maybe if i had the T /images/graemlins/spade.gif in my hand

[/ QUOTE ]
Good point. I would have raised the flop too, and called the 3-bet, and raised the turn. Only thing I'd do different is check behind on the river. I hate four-flushed boards.

riffraff

03-17-2005, 11:33 AM

No, I actually thought I was value betting against AA.
I thought maybe KK would check-call on the river, and that AA would call my bet. I did not think he would check a spade here because of the very high chance that I would check behind.

Now I think maybe he did put me on a flush and therefore thought I would bet it... but at the time I could not figure out why he checked.

KaiShin

03-17-2005, 11:36 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Now I think maybe he did put me on a flush and therefore thought I would bet it... but at the time I could not figure out why he checked.

[/ QUOTE ]
My default answer for odd plays like this is: cause he's a dummy.

SCfuji

03-17-2005, 11:40 AM

hey rif

AA is the only hand that you beat and it has to be the AA without the spade. kk wont fold, and will call down and beat you. the bet wont make a weaker flush fold due to the size of the pot and you will get check raised by better hands. i think i mentioned this before but if you bet and get check raised you should think for a few seconds and seriously consider folding.