03-14-2002, 01:07 AM
Scary to think about it, but my "lock" of the tournament goes in round one!
Best Bet (by far!)
Wisconsin -1.5 over St. Johns
I want to know how this team got into the dance. Their whole schedule is one big HOME win after another. That defined their season. That doesn't get it done in the post-season. I don't think they are very good. Wisconsin isn't great, but they were pretty decent road team and have more recent Big Dance experience. My numbers have this as Badgers -8 so this is a huge overlay.
Solid Plays
So. Illinois +3 over Texas Tech
Raiders are overrated. They did most of their damage at home and were uncompetitive far too often against good teams. Salukis are a regular in the dance and they will come with all they have to beat a name coach out of a name conference. My numbers have this game at -3, but going the other way so I like my value here.
Michigan St +1.5 over NC State
Spartans are one of the true road warriors, their schedule has a lot of very impressive road wins, a great sign of a team that you want to back. I don't respect the ACC much this year, its all in the top two teams and they weren't challenged much this year. Big 10 was stronger from top to bottom and that makes for better showing in the Big Dance as almost every game was a battle while ACC was get killed or play mediocre teams. My numbers have Spartans -1.5, but I would edge that up based on clear road superiority.
Pepperdine +4.5 over Wake Forest
For much the reason I just stated, but add to that I love the WCC to show well out here. WCC was an excellent conference and glad this very good Waves team didn't get screwed like their brothers from Spokane. Wake doesn't deserve to be here and definitely doesn't deserve to be favored. I have Pepperdine -2.5 by my numbers.
Creighton +9.5 over Florida
Gators are a mess and I bet Creighton smells it. This is a good live dog from a pretty good mid-major conference. Florida is just so unpredictable, but notice their road games say a lot as they had a lot of bad games away from Gainesville. My numbers say Gators -4.
Murray St +9 over Georgia
Georgia has a good looking road resume, but not a good looking March one. This team clearly looks like they are fading (LSU isn't that good!) and this looks like an upset special to me. Murray St. was just about unbeatable down the stretch and I like that winning attitude to allow them to play above their class and keep it close or win this one. Besides this team is almost an annual fixture in the Big Dance so there isn't the usual "happy to be here" syndrome working.
Last, but definitely not least, my one game so solid looking that I am ignoring my usual rules about playing favorites in round one...
Gonzaga -6 over Wyoming
Seems like everyone is waiting for this team to choke. It won't happen here. This team is about as focused as you are going to get with the rude ass snub they got. I still can't believe they put them in this spot, what a slap in the face. They will take it out on Wyoming. Zags don't play up to their ability numbers wise because they are so far ahead of most of the WCC. They had a lot of mercy games where they let up at the end of big blowouts. Wyoming is a very questionable invite in my book (along with Utah) as I don't think the Mtn West was worthy of this much respect. Cowboys aren't a bad team, but they are outclassed here by a regular tourney team that probably can't wait to get on the floor and beat someone up. Further I think I am the only one out there that likes the Zags here, seems like all I hear is take Wyoming. When that happens I like the "unpopular" team even more. My number on the game is Gonzaga -11, but jack that up as I think their motivation added to the fact that Wyoming probably "happy/lucky to be here" written all over them.
My Sweet 16 and Final Four(CAPS)
South
DUKE
Kent
Usc
Pitt
East
MARYLAND
Mich St
Marquette
So Illinois
Midwest
MISS STATE
Kansas
Oregon
Illinois
West
ARIZONA
Ohio St
Cincinnati
Oklahoma
This reminds me a bit of what happened to the UNLV team I talked about in 1991, they were defending champs and in the semis they played the team they beat for the title. That team they had beat lost some key talent, yet stunned them for revenge and won the championship. Could it happen again? I don't know if it will, but if it does you heard it here first. Arizona is really rounding into form and played the toughest schedule. They won the most difficult conference tournament as there were no really easy games in the Pac 10 championship. They won that with relative ease and their earlier gutsy sweep of the Bay Area teams looms large. They lost two tough games in LA regular season and of course won the preseason NIT. I like this team a lot and if anyone is going to beat Duke I think here is your suspect. If they get there they will have had a tougher road and be better tested. Duke's road is WAY TOO EASY. USC is the only decent team in the bunch and I am not as high on them as some are. So call it a toss up, national champ will be either Duke or Arizona. Do I get kudos for some gutsy calls (like anyone else is going to pick Miss State to be in Atlanta a few weeks after the surprised the SEC down there)???
Best Bet (by far!)
Wisconsin -1.5 over St. Johns
I want to know how this team got into the dance. Their whole schedule is one big HOME win after another. That defined their season. That doesn't get it done in the post-season. I don't think they are very good. Wisconsin isn't great, but they were pretty decent road team and have more recent Big Dance experience. My numbers have this as Badgers -8 so this is a huge overlay.
Solid Plays
So. Illinois +3 over Texas Tech
Raiders are overrated. They did most of their damage at home and were uncompetitive far too often against good teams. Salukis are a regular in the dance and they will come with all they have to beat a name coach out of a name conference. My numbers have this game at -3, but going the other way so I like my value here.
Michigan St +1.5 over NC State
Spartans are one of the true road warriors, their schedule has a lot of very impressive road wins, a great sign of a team that you want to back. I don't respect the ACC much this year, its all in the top two teams and they weren't challenged much this year. Big 10 was stronger from top to bottom and that makes for better showing in the Big Dance as almost every game was a battle while ACC was get killed or play mediocre teams. My numbers have Spartans -1.5, but I would edge that up based on clear road superiority.
Pepperdine +4.5 over Wake Forest
For much the reason I just stated, but add to that I love the WCC to show well out here. WCC was an excellent conference and glad this very good Waves team didn't get screwed like their brothers from Spokane. Wake doesn't deserve to be here and definitely doesn't deserve to be favored. I have Pepperdine -2.5 by my numbers.
Creighton +9.5 over Florida
Gators are a mess and I bet Creighton smells it. This is a good live dog from a pretty good mid-major conference. Florida is just so unpredictable, but notice their road games say a lot as they had a lot of bad games away from Gainesville. My numbers say Gators -4.
Murray St +9 over Georgia
Georgia has a good looking road resume, but not a good looking March one. This team clearly looks like they are fading (LSU isn't that good!) and this looks like an upset special to me. Murray St. was just about unbeatable down the stretch and I like that winning attitude to allow them to play above their class and keep it close or win this one. Besides this team is almost an annual fixture in the Big Dance so there isn't the usual "happy to be here" syndrome working.
Last, but definitely not least, my one game so solid looking that I am ignoring my usual rules about playing favorites in round one...
Gonzaga -6 over Wyoming
Seems like everyone is waiting for this team to choke. It won't happen here. This team is about as focused as you are going to get with the rude ass snub they got. I still can't believe they put them in this spot, what a slap in the face. They will take it out on Wyoming. Zags don't play up to their ability numbers wise because they are so far ahead of most of the WCC. They had a lot of mercy games where they let up at the end of big blowouts. Wyoming is a very questionable invite in my book (along with Utah) as I don't think the Mtn West was worthy of this much respect. Cowboys aren't a bad team, but they are outclassed here by a regular tourney team that probably can't wait to get on the floor and beat someone up. Further I think I am the only one out there that likes the Zags here, seems like all I hear is take Wyoming. When that happens I like the "unpopular" team even more. My number on the game is Gonzaga -11, but jack that up as I think their motivation added to the fact that Wyoming probably "happy/lucky to be here" written all over them.
My Sweet 16 and Final Four(CAPS)
South
DUKE
Kent
Usc
Pitt
East
MARYLAND
Mich St
Marquette
So Illinois
Midwest
MISS STATE
Kansas
Oregon
Illinois
West
ARIZONA
Ohio St
Cincinnati
Oklahoma
This reminds me a bit of what happened to the UNLV team I talked about in 1991, they were defending champs and in the semis they played the team they beat for the title. That team they had beat lost some key talent, yet stunned them for revenge and won the championship. Could it happen again? I don't know if it will, but if it does you heard it here first. Arizona is really rounding into form and played the toughest schedule. They won the most difficult conference tournament as there were no really easy games in the Pac 10 championship. They won that with relative ease and their earlier gutsy sweep of the Bay Area teams looms large. They lost two tough games in LA regular season and of course won the preseason NIT. I like this team a lot and if anyone is going to beat Duke I think here is your suspect. If they get there they will have had a tougher road and be better tested. Duke's road is WAY TOO EASY. USC is the only decent team in the bunch and I am not as high on them as some are. So call it a toss up, national champ will be either Duke or Arizona. Do I get kudos for some gutsy calls (like anyone else is going to pick Miss State to be in Atlanta a few weeks after the surprised the SEC down there)???