AK whiffs v. a 3 bettor HU [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

blackaces13

03-17-2005, 04:11 AM

1st orbit at the table, all I know is that the table was loose as hell and I hadn't seen many preflop raises let alone 3 bets.

I HATE the way I played this hand.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. UTG posts a blind of $0.5.
UTG (poster) checks, 2 folds, MP1 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, CO 3-bets, 3 folds, UTG folds, MP1 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero calls.

River: (7.75 BB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 8.75 BB

Final note: I know I could/should have capped preflop but I justified not capping as a way to "vary" my play and make it easier to get away from a missed flop. As it turned out the latter proved to be a false assumption since I missed completely and called down. Plus, raising couldn't get any more dead money into the pot.

Anyone fold the turn? Call the river? Bet or raise anywhere post flop?

FreakDaddy

03-17-2005, 04:27 AM

check/fold the flop. It's not worth it to go heads up with Ace high. You don't have the odds and the implied odds suck.

mungpo

03-17-2005, 04:34 AM

I don't think reraising on the flop is going to help you. Fold this on the turn.

milesdyson

03-17-2005, 04:40 AM

Nah, hero should be check calling this flop. He's up against 99, TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA, or another AK. Let's assume against 99 and AA he has 0 outs.

99: 3 combos (~0 outs)
TT: 6 combos (6 outs + BDFD)
JJ: 6 combos (6 outs + BDFD)
QQ: 6 combos (6 outs + BDFD)
KK: 3 combos (3 outs + BDFD)
AA: 3 combos (~0 outs)

(6*6 + 6*6 + 6*6 + 3*3)/27 = 4.33

+ whatever for a BDFD. Hero is getting 10.5:1 against a range of hands against which he has over 4.33 outs. He should, however, fold the turn UI.

jaxUp

03-17-2005, 04:43 AM

There are about a bazillion ways to play this hand. A high does have some value Heads up, especially against loose opponents, who will call down with worse (there are quite a few of them). Against an unknown it's a bit more tricky. Here's what I likely would have done (not saying it's right):

cap preflop

c/r the flop. If he 3-bets, check/fold the turn UI. If he calls:

lead the turn, fold if raised.

If the board looks weak (like high cards would have missed it) I bet the river and fold to a raise. Otherwise, I might check/call, or check/fold depending on my mood.

EDIT: As a discalimer, I have been spending a lot of time at the 1/2 6 max with Uber-LAGs, so my opinion may be skewed

Shillx

03-17-2005, 04:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
There are about a bazillion ways to play this hand. A high does have some value Heads up, especially against loose opponents, who will call down with worse (there are quite a few of them). Against an unknown it's a bit more tricky. Here's what I likely would have done (not saying it's right):

cap preflop

c/r the flop. If he 3-bets, check/fold the turn UI. If he calls:

lead the turn, fold if raised.

If the board looks weak (like high cards would have missed it) I bet the river and fold to a raise. Otherwise, I might check/call, or check/fold depending on my mood.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry but a lot of the advice you give here is really bad. Getting into a pissing contest only to fold the next street is terrible poker. If you are going to bloat the pot on the flop with a check/raise, you can't fold the turn when we probably have 6 or more outs.

OP: Cap preflop. Get to a showdown somehow in this hand.

Brad

mungpo

03-17-2005, 04:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Nah, hero should be check calling this flop. He's up against 99, TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA, or another AK. Let's assume against 99 and AA he has 0 outs.

99: 3 combos (~0 outs)
TT: 6 combos (6 outs + BDFD)
JJ: 6 combos (6 outs + BDFD)
QQ: 6 combos (6 outs + BDFD)
KK: 3 combos (3 outs + BDFD)
AA: 3 combos (~0 outs)

(6*6 + 6*6 + 6*6 + 3*3)/27 = 4.33

+ whatever for a BDFD. Hero is getting 10.5:1 against a range of hands against which he has over 4.33 outs. He should, however, fold the turn UI.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like you.

Shillx

03-17-2005, 04:51 AM

milesdyson

03-17-2005, 04:53 AM

I didn't include AK just to prove hero should be calling this flop. I included 99 because that is a very bad hand for hero, so the calculation is conservative in terms of outs. The OP also said it was a very passive table, so I excluded AQ.

edit: it was also only his first orbit, though...

blackaces13

03-17-2005, 08:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
check/fold the flop. It's not worth it to go heads up with Ace high. You don't have the odds and the implied odds suck.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't have the odds getting 10.5:1 on a likely 6 outs?

blackaces13

03-17-2005, 08:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
OP: Cap preflop. Get to a showdown somehow in this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand wanting a showdown. But, with no one else in the pot to collect from why is this an automatic cap HU? Do you really think its for value? I'm most likely against some type of pair here. If there were a 3rd player in or I could induce a fold then I could see a reason to cap but here not so much.

Like I said, I usually cap AK. Its just that here, I don't see any good reason to so that unless I knew the guy was capable of 3-betting hands that I dominate. Here I know no such thing.

ihardlyknowher

03-17-2005, 08:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
1st orbit at the table, all I know is that the table was loose as hell and I hadn't seen many preflop raises let alone 3 bets.

I HATE the way I played this hand.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K, A. UTG posts a blind of $0.5.
UTG (poster) checks, 2 folds, MP1 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, CO 3-bets, 3 folds, UTG folds, MP1 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 8, 2, 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero calls.

River: (7.75 BB) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 8.75 BB

[/ QUOTE ]

c/r the turn if villain is capable of folding.
fold on the turn if villain is a straightforward player.

FreakDaddy

03-17-2005, 09:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
check/fold the flop. It's not worth it to go heads up with Ace high. You don't have the odds and the implied odds suck.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't have the odds getting 10.5:1 on a likely 6 outs?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes you should fold. You don't have 6 outs you have more like 4 and your implied odds are nearly null. It's an easy fold.

Entity

03-17-2005, 09:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
It's an easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, it isn't.

Seriously, you've got around 4 outs as a weighted average here, and you're getting 10.5:1 in a big pot. Add into the fact that sometime he'll have AQ or AK (you'll usually find out on the turn), and check-folding this flop is far from easy.

Rob

FreakDaddy

03-17-2005, 09:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]

you can't fold the turn when we probably have 6 or more outs.

OP: Cap preflop. Get to a showdown somehow in this hand.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

How in the world do you think there's 6 or more out in this hand? Is it good advice to tell beginners to get in a heads up battle with over cards against a hand that's probably already dominated in a small pot?

I count ~4 outs which leaves here right at the BREAK EVEN point to call this flop bet. Now if there were some implied odds in this hand, it's a call, but HU the best you're going to do is get your money back. I don't understand the advice at all by people in this thread.

KaiShin

03-17-2005, 09:13 PM

What makes you think Hero's hand is dominated? Because CO has AA? That's a pretty narrow range of hands to be putting CO just off a PF 3-bet.

milesdyson

03-17-2005, 09:16 PM

Did you see my post where I gave the guy every hand we wouldn't want him to have and I gave us nothing for a backdoor flush? Even there we should still call the flop. We will be winning some bets if we hit an overcard often enough that you should not just check fold this flop. When do you think it's profitable to call here?

FreakDaddy

03-17-2005, 09:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's an easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, it isn't.

Seriously, you've got around 4 outs as a weighted average here, and you're getting 10.5:1 in a big pot. Add into the fact that sometime he'll have AQ or AK (you'll usually find out on the turn), and check-folding this flop is far from easy.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know Rob. I find some contradictory advice here. There was just a poll that asked 4 pre-flop questions that most people agreed they'd play fairly weak-tight against an unknown. Here we have an another unknown and we don't give him credit for 3-betting behing an MP raise. Hmmm... Not to mention the odds are just about break even to call this hand on the flop with no impied odds. I'm a little baffled by the usually good advice by the vets in this thread.

I think this is a definate fold on the flop.

FreakDaddy

03-17-2005, 09:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Did you see my post where I gave the guy every hand we wouldn't want him to have and I gave us nothing for a backdoor flush? Even there we should still call the flop. We will be winning some bets if we hit an overcard often enough that you should not just check fold this flop. When do you think it's profitable to call here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes I did see that post and you missed some hands. I don't have anymore time right now otherwise I'd go through the math myself, but to answer your question, it's profitable if there's at LEAST one other person coming along that calls 2 bets cold pre-flop. That way you have the dead money coming along for the ride.

LoaferGee12

03-17-2005, 09:20 PM

Please read mikedyson's post. We have an average around 4 outs here. And yes, we have implied odds. You will pick up at least 1 more (if not more) bets here when you improve to the best hand. I just don't see how you can say this is a "definite fold". I'm peeling the flop and folding the turn UI here.

Entity

03-17-2005, 09:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

you can't fold the turn when we probably have 6 or more outs.

OP: Cap preflop. Get to a showdown somehow in this hand.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

How in the world do you think there's 6 or more out in this hand? Is it good advice to tell beginners to get in a heads up battle with over cards against a hand that's probably already dominated in a small pot?

I count ~4 outs which leaves here right at the BREAK EVEN point to call this flop bet. Now if there were some implied odds in this hand, it's a call, but HU the best you're going to do is get your money back. I don't understand the advice at all by people in this thread.

[/ QUOTE ]

Running clubs will account for around 1 out, mathematically.

If Hero is 3-bet by TT-AA and AK (a narrow range, but not entirely uncommon), he'll have 18 outs against TT-QQ, 3 outs against KK and ~.25 outs against AA. On the whole, that's 5.65 outs on the average. Getting 10.5:1 when the bets will double on the next street, that's not close to an easy fold.

Rob

FreakDaddy

03-17-2005, 09:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What makes you think Hero's hand is dominated? Because CO has AA? That's a pretty narrow range of hands to be putting CO just off a PF 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

22-AA dominates hero's hand. Not saying of course that villian has 22-88.

Entity

03-17-2005, 09:22 PM

KaiShin

03-17-2005, 09:24 PM

I think you are confused about the concept of a dominated hand.

Any pocket pair is beating us on the flop yes, but not every pocket pair dominates AK.

Entity

03-17-2005, 09:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Not to mention the odds are just about break even to call this hand on the flop with no impied odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you keep saying there are no implied odds on this? At the very least, hero will collect 2BB's if he pairs up and plays his hand properly.

Rob

Shillx

03-17-2005, 09:30 PM

What do you think we should do? I'm thinking that there are 2 options at this point:

A) Check/fold the turn UI.
B) Call it down.

Given the current pot status I wouldn't mind a turn fold. The real question is...how often will the villian bet AK/AQ on the turn after we check to him? If he knows that we might laydown the same hand or the best hand, it would be correct for him to keep pounding away (or if he just keeps betting until we give him a reason not to). That is why I sometimes hate folding in this spot. Tough spot to be in and it really depends more on the read then anything else IMO. If the pot were much larger, I would just look him up.

Brad

Entity

03-17-2005, 09:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What do you think we should do? I'm thinking that there are 2 options at this point:

A) Check/fold the turn UI.
B) Call it down.

Given the current pot status I wouldn't mind a turn fold. The real question is...how often will the villian bet AK/AQ on the turn after we check to him? If he knows that we might laydown the same hand or the best hand, it would be correct for him to keep pounding away (or if he just keeps betting until we give him a reason not to). That is why I sometimes hate folding in this spot. Tough spot to be in and it really depends more on the read then anything else IMO. If the pot were much larger, I would just look him up.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

This is actually one of the reasons I will often cap preflop and lead the flop. It depends on the player and situation.

As is on this hand, I don't mind check-folding the turn.

Rob

blackaces13

03-17-2005, 11:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
check/fold the flop. It's not worth it to go heads up with Ace high. You don't have the odds and the implied odds suck.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't have the odds getting 10.5:1 on a likely 6 outs?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes you should fold. You don't have 6 outs you have more like 4 and your implied odds are nearly null. It's an easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even if my outs were exactly 4 (which I think is undervaluing them) and my implied odds were exactly null, then guess what? Its STILL an EV nuetral call.

Folding this flop seems pretty weak to me.

blackaces13

03-17-2005, 11:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]

22-AA dominates hero's hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you need to look up the word dominate FD. The ONLY hands in all of poker that dominate AK preflop are AA and KK and fortunately they're also the least likely for an opponent to hold.

Sure, QQ-22 are beating me, slightly. But they're far from dominating Big Slick.

blackaces13

03-17-2005, 11:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What do you think we should do? I'm thinking that there are 2 options at this point:

A) Check/fold the turn UI.
B) Call it down.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you're saying that once I call the turn bet I should call 1 more on the river because of the pot odds? I figured an unknown doesn't fire a 3rd barrel with no pair more than 1 in 9.75 times.

I think a fold on the turn would have been the best play but I talked myself into having almost 6 outs and with the 1BB in implied odds on the river I figured 6.75 immediate pots odds were good enough.

stoxtrader

03-18-2005, 10:19 AM

ihardlyknow her's analysis is sound - you may consider capping pre-flop cause your pot equity is high - its simply for value and lets you lead a flop.

the river card did not change anything, you barely have odds to draw on the turn, so If you call the turn, a river call is mandatory. vs a striaghtforward or non-aggro player, I like an outright turn fold.

SCfuji

03-18-2005, 10:35 AM

at 50c/1 this is an auto cap for me. i like to take control of heads up and 3 handed pots. if im stealing on the button with KTo and i get 3-bet by the small blind i will cap instantly. its not exactly profitable at the moment, but it gives me control a lot of the time and i can choose how the betting will continue at least through fourth street. it also puts pressure on your opponent if they have a weaker hand that misses the flop and you may be able to pick up the pot with a flop bet.

even being out of position you should take the lead preflop with a cap and lead the flop with a bet. makes life easier for you!

SlantNGo

03-18-2005, 12:17 PM

I don't think you played it that poorly. The only street that was bad was the turn, that should be a fold there. And I wouldn't cap it OOP heads-up either.

jskills

03-18-2005, 12:20 PM

You can lead out on the flop, and hope he folds (and not put any more money in the pot unimproved) or check/fold to his flop bet. I can't see doing anything else here ...

SlantNGo

03-18-2005, 12:23 PM

Bad, bad, did you miss the backdoor flush draw?

[ QUOTE ]
You can lead out on the flop, and hope he folds (and not put any more money in the pot unimproved) or check/fold to his flop bet. I can't see doing anything else here ...

[/ QUOTE ]

davelin

03-18-2005, 12:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You can lead out on the flop, and hope he folds (and not put any more money in the pot unimproved) or check/fold to his flop bet. I can't see doing anything else here ...

[/ QUOTE ]

A 3-bettor isn't folding for one more bet on the flop. As been discussed, you have the pot odds to peel one off.

Isura

03-18-2005, 02:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
22-AA dominates hero's hand. Not saying of course that villian has 22-88.

[/ QUOTE ]

What??? This is plain wrong. Hero is 6:5 if he can play it to the river HU against 22-QQ. Add the blinds and the fact that Hero can (probably) outplay his opponent postflop. He's only dominated against AA-KK.

Given this, I think the preflop call is okay. Capping is profitable against a loose preflop raiser HU, but otherwise also being out of position, there's not much wrong with calling the pf 3-bet.