99 as an overpair.

[dibbs]

Just kind of curious if anyone gets frisky with a hand like this or maybe TT in this spot.. Any thoughts appreciated. Don't have the HH but this should do.

.25/.50 NLHE full table, lot of loose weak players except for the button in this hand.

He is very tight aggressive but not tricky, quite predictable. I've played about 200 hands today with him and maybe another 500 in the past, and his preflop raises usually diagram pretty well what he has.
He also doesn't seem to alter them in accordance with the number of limpers either.

2x-Small pairs
3x-99 and TT.
6x- AK, AQ.
9x- AA, KK, QQ.
(x the bb)
I've never seen him with JJ.

He almost always follows up his preflop raises with a pot sized bet if checked to, but has no problem releasing a hand.

I have 150 bbs he has 200.

Lots of limpers, he makes it 6x on the button, the biggest cash cow at the table who has 200 bbs calls in the sb, and I call in the BB with 99. Two EP players call as well.

Flop: 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif with 15$ in the pot.

If it's checked to him and he bets the pot, does anyone play back?

Anyone lead the flop?

This is assuming you have a very strong feeling the other players are going to drop.

It's a very modest holding, just wondering how many people like to push perceived edges like this if there's a good chance you're ahead given knowledge on the opponents raising standards.

Cheers.

[DasLeben]

I lead out on the flop.

Consider it this way: If you bet out and he raises, you can release the hand, assuming that you're confident on your read. If you check to him and he bets, well, now you really have no idea where you're at, because he could just be following up with AK.

I'd stick a bet of about $10 out there and see what he does.

[thesharpie]

I think I'd rather lead than check raise, as you're building a much larger pot with a marginal holding if you check raise.

[PinkSteel]

Fold. Multiway pot, you're out of position vs. 3 players. Overcards will likely come, and then where will you be? You didn't get your set; let it go.

[zaxx19]

Good points...MULTIWAY POTS+OUT OF POSITION+MARGINAL HOLDINGS= Folds

[edge]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold. Multiway pot, you're out of position vs. 3 players. Overcards will likely come, and then where will you be? You didn't get your set; let it go.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hold on. You're not just looking for a set with 99. You could be ahead on this flop as often as 50% of the time (raiser has high cards).

I probably bet out here. If he calls or raises, I'm done (unless I spike my 9 on the turn).

[noggindoc]

I think this is a good line as well. There are merits to both but I like leading out and folding to aggression. The problem becomes getting flat called leading the flop. Hard to know where you stand.

[PinkSteel]

You may be ahead, but 3 other players called a 6x preflop raise, two of them from EP. What do you put them on? I think there's a good chance you're behind to a higher pair already. Suppose you bet out and get 2 callers, then the predictable overcard comes. What do you do on the turn?

I would bet out if I thought I had good chances of taking the pot down here, but in a 5-way from up front, I don't see it.

[zaxx19]

You maybe ahead 60% doesnt really matter bc its 4 way and you are oop and its gonna be damn near impossible to play this if you get a caller.

[tbach24]

I do. He either has AK or AQ or MAYBE JJ. He'll let you know if he has JJ. There's not many cards I won't play back with here. Against an opponent this predictable, I will take a LOT of flops.

Edit- nvm with three players I'll pick a better spot. Unless they never slowplay.

[xorbie]

You have a great read on his raise as being AK/AQ based on his raise, so you're really only afraid of JJ. I would probably lead out here, but if you want to see how the EP people play it, I think a check-raise here is fine. A fold is a bit weak.

[dibbs]

Thanks for the discussion guys.

In this particular game I'm VERY sure the other live players missed with absolute garbage, a check means nothing here, in this game anyways.

In most games though in this spot I feel they are a big factor and make a fold much easier with a precarious hand OOP like this.

But suppose instead of BB you are CO, and it gets checked to you, I'm liking the idea of leading with a decent bet because there is a huge chance you'll take it down from a guy like this. If he has JJ he'll let you know and the pot wouldn't be as big from a checkraise.

Folding is fine too I think, as mentioned.

Kind of interesting debate I spose.