92.7% sure that my hand is best, but is a call more profitable?

[ThePenguin]

I thought about betting the turn too. Thoughts on all streets appreciated, though my main concern is the river.
BB is tight, the others are loose.


Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. MP3 posts a blind of $4.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP3 (poster) calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (10.33 SB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, MP3 checks, Button checks.

Turn: (5.16 BB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, MP3 checks, Button checks.

River: (5.16 BB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero...

[eh923]

I'd just call and hope for overcalls. The pot is small, so I can't see anyone calling two cold with weak hands. And with 3 people left to act, you could easily get a caller or two without putting in an extra bet.

[Roland19]

I really like an overcall here, too. This is one of those rare situations where this actually figures to be much more profitable than raising, so I say do it.

[bilbo-san]

Call hoping for overcalls. It's really unlikely anyone has a K or J here, so who would call a raise?

That said, I bet this turn. If you are ahead (and you probably are), why give any Q or A (or 9!) a free card?? The river would also be a lot easier to play if you had bet.

[eh923]

I forgot to put this in my first reply...but I don't think twice about checking the turn. I also wouldn't think twice about folding had it been bet ahead of me. Our hero has 4th pair against 4 opponents and all of the overcards are broadway cards.

I'm normally pretty aggressive post-flop when I'm the pre-flop raiser. But I don't do it all the time. This is a good example of when to slow down.

Of course, I'm ignoring leading out on the flop. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Roland19]

With so many people in the pot, I don't think there is any chance that our 88 is good versus three overcards. I say just keep checking and hope for a free showdown. As it happened we got lucky and spiked a set on the river, and should therefore call and hope for overcalls. However, I don't think betting this turn would be a very good idea.

[sean c]

Limp pre flop if you r only playing this hand for a set. Since you raised fire one off on the flop for two reasons. To see if you can thin the field and maybe improve your position. I assume you raised to give your hand a chance to win unimproved so I would follow up on that on the flop.

[Catt]

I really doubt it makes too much of a difference, frankly, though I'd favor a call slightly. With this action, I'd be willing to wager that you're not going to get any overcalls (maybe one at the most) and I also think the BB is likely to fold to a raise - so I'd call and pray for an overcall.

[ThePenguin]

Thanks for everyone's insight. As for firing away on the flop, I would usually do this HU or against two opponents, especially if one of them is in the blinds and he checks to me. However, against four callers, I think that I'm most likely behind on the flop.

[BreakEvenPlayer]

Bet this flop bro... If they all fold 8% of the time you've made money. If you narrow it down to a couple callers you've made your turn check an easy decision rather than the no-man's-land you found your self in on the turn.

3/6 players aren't the most observant creatures in the world, but checking flops after raising PF is asking someone to pick on you down the road.