small pairs in the middle levels

[dfscott]

There've been several posts lately about playing low pairs in the middle levels and I have to confess that I’m not sure what to do with them either. Early, I’ll limp and try to flop a set. Late, I’ll push and hope the table folds and take my coin flip otherwise. However, in the middle levels, you’re stuck between both situations.

Here’s an example, assuming a PP structure and 10+1 players:

Blinds 50/100

UTG – 1550
ME – 950
CO – 750
Button – 850
SB – 1100
BB – 1000

I get dealt 55 and it’s folded to me. What’s my play? If it's clear-cut, what would make it not clear-cut?

[curtains]

Clearcut allin. Having 33 or 22 instead of 55 would make it less clearcut IMO.

[Mr_J]

"However, in the middle levels, you’re stuck between both situations"

I push. Most of the time it'll be folded around. When you are called, alot of the time it'll be vs 2 overcards where you're 55-45. Sometimes it'll be vs an overpair, which you'll still win every now and then.

Think I'm gonna start posting about plays here more. I don't take note of HHs I'd like to post up, so I'm think I'll get my thoughts down about other ppls HHs.

[Big Limpin']

Clearcut muck, but i've never played an 800-chip tourney in my life, so take that into consideration.

Pushing small PP from EP at a semi-full table, IMO, is good if you are one of the poorer players at the table, and are happy to roll the dice.

You know russian roulette? Thats what you are doing betting blindly into that many ppl. Of course, in RR, you die 100% of the time you get busted. versus overPP, you are only 80% to die.

[curtains]

The reason you win at these tournaments is because youll take +EV spots like this. Pushing here with 55 is +EV chipwise. The blinds are too high for you to sit around waiting for monsters.

[Mr_J]

"Pushing small PP from EP at a semi-full table"

I don't like the position (CO or button would obviously be more comfy), but the stack sizes favour him. Bigstack is out of it, and everyone behind is about equal so no-one is desperate or loose (by that I mean bigstack making marginal calls).

"and are happy to roll the dice."

I don't think it's rolling the dice. Most of the time it should be folded around, and you are still ahead of plenty of calls.

"versus overPP, you are only 80% to die."

You are assuming someone has an overpair. They won't all that often.

[Bigwig]

Actually, I'd fold here, and push from the CO in a general game. The extra person to act makes a significant difference, IMO. I'd wait just a bit more.

[curtains]

Ok but you are definitely giving up chip EV by folding. You understand this I assume and hope to get an even better +EV spot later? I feel like this is hard because most of your EV in the endgame of partypoker tournaments comes from stealing, and this time your hand actually has correct values to steal.

[Bigwig]

Yes, I'm looking for a better spot. This one would be pushable if my stack were smaller, but I'd rather push K8 from the SB than 55 from MP2. Four players left to act scares me a bit.

[Big Limpin']

Are you some kind of idiot???? /images/graemlins/grin.gif Pushing is CLEARLY +EV

(or so i hear)

I stand by my action.

[curtains]

I said its +EV from a chipwise perspective. There's a difference.

I just feel that once you are under around ten times the BB, it's hard to pass up +ev edges, although I admit this isn't a large one.

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]

The reason you win at these tournaments is because youll take +EV spots like this. Pushing here with 55 is +EV chipwise. The blinds are too high for you to sit around waiting for monsters.

[/ QUOTE ]

you advocate pushing with 10 bb against a field of relatively even stacks? isnt 8 a better #?

[Mr_J]

"you advocate pushing with 10 bb against a field of relatively even stacks? isnt 8 a better #?"

I think there are times it's definately correct to push with more than 10xBB. eg strong preflop hand that could be quite vunerable if you see a flop.

I see the even stacks as an advantage, less likely someone will call. No desperate shortstacks, and no loose bigstacks.

[microbet]

Your table image and read on the table could definitely sway things either way.

77 is a push for me and 33 is a fold. My feeling at the moment is that 55 is a fold too.

[Bigwig]

I don't see any reason to push all-in with more than 10BB without limpers in the pot. You just need to have a plan for post flop play. Except for AA, all hands can turn to crap in a hurry postflop.

[Elektrik]

Of course 8 BB is a better number for a push, but we're looking at this specific situation.

This is definitely a push IMO.

Would you fold KQs or ATo here?

[Scuba Chuck]

David, haven't read any other posts, but I think it would make the most sense to match your pairs up with a non-paired hand that you find attractive. Use Eastbay's sheet here (http://sitngo-analyzer.com/poker/hand-rankings.html)

For example
55 ~ QJs
66 ~ A9s
77 ~ AQs
88 ~ AKs

The primary flaw in this thinking is that if you're called by an overpair, you're dominated. This should get you started in developing what your style of play will be.

[Mr_J]

Just for the record, I folded 66 from the same position with 850 chips in a $55. My reasons were a UTG limper and 2 big stacks behind me.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]

Clearcut allin. Having 33 or 22 instead of 55 would make it less clearcut IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

Clearcut fold. He's got 4 people to act behind him and he's sitting on a nice, healthy 9.5xBB stack. Having 88 or 99 would make it less clearcut IMO.

[Pokerscott]

[ QUOTE ]
"versus overPP, you are only 80% to die."

You are assuming someone has an overpair. They won't all that often.

[/ QUOTE ]

An overpair here by one of the remaining 4 players is about 18%. Not sure the overpair calls (66 in CO may not call for example), and you can still win if an overpair calls.

Still it is tough to push with 9.5xBB and 4 to act behind. I think it is a close call.

Pokerscott


EDIT: This play is about +2/3BB in EV assuming the remaining 4 players only call with top 5% hands (AA-TT AK AQ). You are about a 2-1 dog when you get called, but you are only getting called about 20% of the time. This calculation also assumes you only get called by a single player, but still looks pretty good in terms of EV to me. It is worse if people have looser calling standards however.

[Phoenix1010]

How loose are the players yet to act, have you been playing noticably aggressive preflop or hanging back?

This is a fold in the lower buyins. You don't need to put your tournament at risk (coinflip at best if you're called) to gain 150 chips against players who you can greatly outplay for more money when the blinds go up. You're giving up a +EV play here because there will most likely be better opportunities soon. In my opinion there isn't a huge difference between having 950 chips and 1100 chips at that blind level. When the blinds go up, your fold equity is almost the same.

At higher buyins or against tougher opponents, where your skill edge is lessened, it's hard to argue that you should fold here. The Gap at these levels will ensure that you steal the blinds the vast majority of the time. There's a good chance that your opponents will be folding most of the hands you're truly afraid of as well (88, 99, maybe even TT) so it is more likely that when you get called, you will be up against a strong ace, which you are slightly ahead of. It's a +CEV move, and against tougher players you have to push your edges.

By the way, against most opponents in this situation, I really don't see a difference between holding 55 or 22. No one's calling you with 44, or A5, or anything like that where 55 is preferred to 22. The calling requirements when the stacks are relatively safe are strong aces and high pocket pairs (maybe mid pairs as well), so you're not in any better shape pushing 55 than you are pushing 22. This probably applies to 77 in tougher games as well.

-Phoenix

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Clearcut allin. Having 33 or 22 instead of 55 would make it less clearcut IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

Clearcut fold. He's got 4 people to act behind him and he's sitting on a nice, healthy 9.5xBB stack. Having 88 or 99 would make it less clearcut IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you had 88 or 99 it would be the most clearcut allin in the history of poker. Folding would be a terrible play.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Clearcut allin. Having 33 or 22 instead of 55 would make it less clearcut IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

Clearcut fold. He's got 4 people to act behind him and he's sitting on a nice, healthy 9.5xBB stack. Having 88 or 99 would make it less clearcut IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you had 88 or 99 it would be the most clearcut allin in the history of poker. Folding would be a terrible play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well. Good to see that your talent for hyperbole is intact. It seems to me that folding 88 or 99 there is fine, but you may be right. However, I think it's clear that it's nowhere near to being the "most clearcut allin in the history of poker."

[Mr_J]

"How loose are the players yet to act"

Can't remember now, just felt I'd called too often. I've been reasonably quiet so far. I assumed that they wouldn't pay too much attention to my table image. I think it was the UTG limper that made me fold, otherwise I probally would've pushed.

"This is a fold in the lower buyins"

I just stepped up from the $33s /images/graemlins/wink.gif From what I've seen so far there are still plenty of morons at the $55s. I realize that against tougher opponents you have to take advantage of more marginal edges, something I just have to get used to.

[curtains]

No it's not, but folding would be a serious error.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]

No it's not, but folding would be a serious error.

[/ QUOTE ]

My intuition is really different here. Lemme think about this and get back to you. Good god, what if I learn something...the horror!!

[Mr_J]

My intuition is telling me to fold aces now. My last 11/12 have bee cracked. 9/10 preflop, 1 outdrawn postlfop and 1 outflopped. Geez.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
My intuition is telling me to fold aces now. My last 11/12 have bee cracked. 9/10 preflop, 1 outdrawn postlfop and 1 outflopped. Geez.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is definitely nothing like folding AA. To be effective, satire needs to resemble reality more than yours does.

[curtains]

I love you all

[Mr_J]

Too much info...