Push with any two (Pary $100+9)

[Dudd]

In late stages of a SNG, obviously aggressive play is the rule of the day due to the high blinds/short stacks. I tend to take this to the extreme, pushing all in constantly around the bubble, relying on the fact that most players are looking to cash and will run scared with most of their hands, even though many of them will be a small to large favorite over my holding. The hand below is the extreme case of this. Was this the right play? I figure at least half the time I'll take down the blinds, and unless I'm called by an overpair, I'm probably no worse than a 2-1 dog should I get called. Is this too aggressive, or what I should be doing come bubble time?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP (t2040)
Hero (t1820)
SB (t2930)
BB (t3155)
UTG (t55)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t1820 (All-In)</font>, SB calls t1670, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (t3940) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Turn: (t3940) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t3940) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t3940

[drewjustdrew]

I have had bad experience with these types of plays and am starting to avoid them. You should fold. Your opponents are not that far ahead of you that you need to take unnecessary risks. Maybe you make that move if you have closer to 1000 and risk falling to an auto-call situation for your opponents. Even then, possibly wait for a higher card than a 7 to go to battle with.

[eastbay]

You've taken a good idea and pushed it a little too far here. If you put both SB and BB on calling hands of 55+, A5+, KQs, the standard ICM line is to fold:

http://sitngo-analyzer.com/poker/72o.PNG

They'd really have to be playing VERY tight, say calling standards of 99+,AJ+ for this push to be a winner:

http://sitngo-analyzer.com/poker/72o-tight.PNG

Since you already said you play aggressively, your image probably does not warrant calling standards nearly this tight for them. Fold.

eastbay

[curtains]

argghhghghgh its close enough to Friday already , I beg you for the program!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! /images/graemlins/smile.gif /images/graemlins/smile.gif /images/graemlins/smile.gif :P

[iMsoLucky0]

There are many, MANY, cases in 109 SNGs where you should push with any two. However, this is most definitely not an example of that.

There are several reasons why this is not a good spot to push with any two, but the main reason is that the blinds can call you and still have 1000+ chips left. This takes away a huge chunk of your fold equity here, and makes the play not be profitable. Also, you can fold here (and even fold through the next round), until you need to start feeling pressured. The 450 chips you gain here are not that important in the overall tournament. You should definitely wait for a better spot to steal.

Edit: Damn you and your numbers eastbay. What's wrong with a little theory anymroe? /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Dudd]

So it's pretty much a consensus that this is too aggressive. What general kind of hand do I need before this play becomes correct?

[eastbay]

It really depends on your image here and the looseness of the calls you're going to get.

Give us a guestimate of your read on getting called down and we can answer better.

eastbay

[Dudd]

As I said in my original post, I figured that I was at least going to take down the blinds half the time, probably closer to 2/3rds of the time. I had been playing extremely aggressively, but I wasn't getting pushed back at much.

[wiggs73]

[ QUOTE ]
As I said in my original post, I figured that I was at least going to take down the blinds half the time, probably closer to 2/3rds of the time. I had been playing extremely aggressively, but I wasn't getting pushed back at much.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you have to figure that at some point, you're going to get played back at. Eventually, the others are going to get tired of your all-ins and call you, possibly even with hands outside normal calling ranges. And this is ok, but not when you have 2-7.

Like another poster said, you took a good idea a bit too far here IMO. It's good to be able to push with any 2 cards, but it's not always right to do so.

Oh, also, Eastbay's numbers are good to use as reference too (as always). Is there anybody not looking forward to getting their hands on this program?

[eastbay]

Picking up the blinds only 1/2 - 2/3 of the time here is actually a pretty bad spot, and you really don't want to get involved without a strong hand if, for example, you expect to get shown any ace or any pair (giving 68% steals). Stay out of the way and let one of those loose ace calls happen on someone else.

Pairs down to about 55, and aces down to about A9 are probably good candidates.

As your opponents tighten up from there, you can start adding more hands. Obviously, a SB push has more wiggle room in general here, too, especially since stack on your left has more to lose than big stack.

eastbay

[kdotsky]

Is it the right situation to push here if he has the players left to act covered since the BB probably goes out next hand?