66 on the button and bubble - revised and clean

[maldini]

dont have the hand history but can recreate this bubble hand. tough decision for me. please advise.

$20 SNG Pokerstars
4 players. blinds are 75/150.
im on the button with ~T1900,
SB has ~T1800 not counting the small blind posted.
BB has ~T5000
UTG also has ~T5000 and is a moron

UTG limps. he is clearly the worst player. limps almost every hand. has called some raises with aweful cards and won to get this far. hasnt been calling many raises lately.

i get 66 on the button and push.

should i wait for a better spot? what are the odds someone has a calling hand here and if they do, do i want to gamble to get enough chips to play for 1st?

[Allinlife]

your logic is flawed.

1) awful players make awful calls
2) 66 doesn't even beat a random hand
3) you have more than enough chips to play "poker"
4) you have POSITION


By pushing, you are throwing away the +EV out the window. by merely calling, you incourage SB to limp and have good chance of raking in some chips when you flop set with loose players like UTG. by Pushing, you are risking all your chips when you don't have to and looking at coinflip at best and often dominated as 4:1 underdog

[maldini]

hum. interesting. maybe i have a major leak, but i almost never just call when its 5 players or less.

doesnt a call invite a raise from one of the random hands? i surely cant call a raise and nearly no flop will be enjoyable.

this was all about FE for me. maybe the fact that i'm a coin flip or worse to any call makes it not worthwhile.

how bout a miniraise or a raise to $400-450?

[Allinlife]

nope...according to your description of UTG, he is very liekly to call your raise because he has 5k in chips and the raise dones't really scare him. and 66 don't really want to see expensive flops because they will often come with 1 or more overcards.

[curtains]

Often dominated as a 4-1 underdog? I'd change "often" to "rarely", in this situation.

[Mez]

Agreed, this goes to the point of: don't bluff a calling station. Although you're far from bluffing, you don't welcome nor want a call of your allin.

This makes limping attractive, as you're likely to have a set pay off.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]

Often dominated as a 4-1 underdog? I'd change "often" to "rarely", in this situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he can safely assume that he's at least a slight fav to any call here, and his FE is huge (but not forever). Limp here is awful...id rather fold. (by rather, there is not a question given those two options, fold or limp? fold) And what's a minraise accomplishing? You're giving huge odds to the BB (and maybe sb) to call and building a pot for four hands, one of which will surely have you on the flop?

Unless moron is trapping here (and OP said he is limping often, so no reason to think so) we may even welcome his call with A4s or k2s or whatever he limped with...worst case is a coinflip where OP has a slight edge (although busting OOTM is not worth a slight EV edge). but i think he's folding to the all-in...if it didnt work out that way, most times it would.

[curtains]

I feel that limping is much better than folding.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
Agreed, this goes to the point of: don't bluff a calling station.

This makes calling very attractive, as you're likely to have a set pay off.

[/ QUOTE ]

? I cant understand this line....(see below). This is not the time of an SNG to be playing for set value...you're taking your pairs and using them for "FOLD VALUE"...iow, 40% they fold to my all-in plus Im a 54% favorite if they call (youve put them on 2 overcards) or a 65 percent favorite to their A baby x. Those added together make all in good here ~40% to take blinds plus villain's call (pulled this out of no where so dont ask, but dont think given two left to act, size of stacks, and villain's proclivity to limp that this is so far off)
...limping is horrible IMO...this isnt level I anymore.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]

I feel that limping is much better than folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? you would limp ~10% of stack to play with 3 other hands with 66, plus the possibility of getting raised from SB or BB? That's chucking chips.

What would be you plan for the rest of PF? SB raises and UTG calls? BB Pushes? everyone calls flop comes 7 K T?

Are you just playing for set value still?

[curtains]

To assume that a blind will raise most of the time is wrong, they probably won't raise very often. If it's 3 handed and checked to me, I can bet some flops where I don't flop a set. There are more ways of winning this hand than flopping a set.

Anyway I still feel that allin is correct, but I would prefer calling before folding.

[EarlCat]

[ QUOTE ]
This is not the time of an SNG to be playing for set value...you're taking your pairs and using them for "FOLD VALUE"...iow, 40% they fold to my all-in plus Im a 54% favorite if they call (youve put them on 2 overcards) or a 65 percent favorite to their A baby x. Those added together make all in good here ~40% to take blinds plus villain's call (pulled this out of no where so dont ask, but dont think given two left to act, size of stacks, and villain's proclivity to limp that this is so far off)
...limping is horrible IMO...this isnt level I anymore.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. Hero has just over 12BBs. He can't afford to just limp in with 6s and fold when he doesn't flop his set. If he does this more than a couple times, he won't have any fold equity whatsoever. Time to $hit or get off the pot. I'm all-in.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]


To assume that a blind will raise most of the time is wrong, they probably won't raise very often. If it's 3 handed and checked to me, I can bet some flops where I don't flop a set. There are more ways of winning this hand than flopping a set.

Anyway I still feel that allin is correct, but I would prefer calling before folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with you then mostly...I know there are more ways to win then flopping a set...its just w/o a raise and such a shallow stack its very hard at this point of the SNG to play multi way w/o having the funds to gather info...A min bet on the flop could be perceived as weak and you're a sitting duck...all on the flop against 2 callers no good cas you couldve done that PF and cut down on the hands.

all in all....all-in