PLHE Online Tourney Hand (Fossilman-Help?)

Blinds are 200/400. I have 8000 in the cutoff. MP
player doubles the blind to 800. She is not smart.
Her raises signify the strength of her hand, so I
immeadiately put her on AJ, AT, or middle pair
(66-99).

I thought about making a reraise to represent a big
pair, but figured it would fly over her head, so
decided against it and called the 800 with KQ of
hearts. Now, first off, I know my hand sucks, I know
she's leading at this point. I made this call in
preparation of my predetermined move on the flop,
which was to go all in over her flop bet barring an A
on the flop.

Flop comes 7 3 2 rainbow

PERFECT! She bets pot of 2200, leaving her 3200 more.
I go all in and she calls instantly. She flips over
99 and cripples me to 1800.

Bad move? Or just bad timing against the wrong
player? I'm sure most nearly every good player would
muck their 9s on a rag flop like that...I mean I
either hit a set, slowplayed AA or KK, or was a
complete bluff...I just don't understand how somebody
can call on a flop like that. No conceivable draw or
anything on my part. Plus, I had only showed down an
AKs and a QQ before this hand.

Thanks...

Dan

[lorinda]

IMO a looks like a bad move.
You have stated that this player gives away the strength of their hand and now they have bet the pot on the flop /forums/images/icons/laugh.gif
I would call to see the flop because I can get away from the hand easily when they bet, if she bets small on the flop then I think your play would work.

Just a thought
Lori

[Greg (FossilMan)]

Executive Summary: Not smart players make not smart calls.

Now, the truth is, her call isn't really a mistake, unless there is very little chance you were bluffing or mistakenly raising with top pair. I count 2200 preflop, plus her 2200 on the flop, your 2200 call, plus your 3200 raise. That makes 9800 in the pot, and she has to call 3200. If she's behind, she has 2 outs, which by itself gives her >8% equity in the pot. And, it seems like it could be pretty likely you're bluffing, just hit a pair, or have a pocket pair such as 88, 66, or lower which didn't flop a set.

I mean, what are the chances you have AA? She only doubled the big blind. If you had AA or KK, wouldn't you have reraised preflop to make sure the blinds didn't get a cheap call for a sizable pot? I bet you would. Maybe she knew that, and therefore put you on a bluff or a worse pair that you thought could beat her AK or the like. Your preflop play was simply not consistent with a big pair. As such, it's harder for you to represent that fact postflop. Or, maybe she isn't smart, and just thought I can beat top pair, I call.

So, whether she's smart or not smart, she's going to call, it seems.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[ohkanada]

Trying to be fancy against a player who has no clue is plain silly.

Not sure if you stack of 8000 is big or not compared to others. I don't like your call preflop. Even by your own admission you are behind on every hand you think she might have. Doing a pot sized raise may take the hand down here.

On the flop this raggedy flop is perfect for 99. This type of opponent is not going to lay down that hand on that board. I am not sure if I would laydown 99 on this raggedy flop. Sure you could have a set but you could also have A7 suited or 88 or other 1 pair combos.

Now would she lay down AJ in the same situation. Only you know, but after putting 1/2 her stack in she may not be folding anytime soon.

Ken Poklitar

[soda]

I think it could be a very good play to call this type of player with a KQ and then play them off a hand that doesn't hit.

However, problems arise when you make mistakes postflop.

Her bet on the flop should have made your hand hit the muck. If she truly is a poor player, she'll tell you when she has AJ in this situation by her bet amount on the flop, then you can take the pot by playing position strongly. Her bet says "overpair", and with such she cannot fold to such a small raise on the flop.

best of luck,

soda