SnG ROI Confidence Intervals--Monte Carlo results ***REPOST***

[Pokerscott]

For some reason the images hosted in the original post no longer work. I have received some PMs asking to repost this information with working images, so here's hoping this works...Original post and comments here (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=1570111&page=6&view=colla psed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1)



This post is meant to be a quick reference if you are interested in determining the confidence level surrounding key questions such as:

Suppose you have played 50 SnGs and are up 11 units, how confident are you that:
-You are better than the average player that consistently loses the rake?
-You are good enough to overcome the rake?
-You are an ROI 10%+ player? 20%? 30%? 40%? 50%?

The following tables help you answer these questions.

Background on this analysis and some discussion can be found in my original thread here (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=1562473&page=1&view=colla psed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1)

People requested I run the analysis not just for testing whether or not you are above average, but also looking at various levels of ROI. Here are the tables for those results.

First the average player results (note the average player should have an ROI corresponding to the rake or in this case an ROI of -9.09%)

http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y44/pokerscott/ROIneg909.gif

Here are the tables for testing your confidence that you are able to overcome the rake (ROI 0%)

http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y44/pokerscott/ROIzero.gif

And finally, here are the tables for ROI 10% - 50%

10% ROI

http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y44/pokerscott/ROI10.gif

20% ROI
http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y44/pokerscott/ROI20.gif

30% ROI

http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y44/pokerscott/ROI30.gif

40% ROI

http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y44/pokerscott/ROI40.gif

50% ROI

http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y44/pokerscott/ROI50.gif

Cheers,

Pokerscott