Here's one of those hands I'd really rather have folded

[Scuba Chuck]

I'm curious as to the thoughts about $EV analysis here vs. future FE. I believe the extra 100 chips saved here is worth more to me in future hands than to play this scenario. 32s ranks 163rd out of the 169 total hand combinationis. Yuk. I did run pokerstove, and it says that 32s has a 36% win probability against any two cards.

Any thoughts?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t975)
UTG (t872)
MP1 (t734)
MP2 (t1254)
CO (t1864)
Button (t306)
SB (t1995)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t306 (All-In)</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls t106.

Flop: (t712) J/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Turn: (t712) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t712) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t712

[shoeman]

I really hate these situations. Odds to call with a crap hand. Unfortuneately, this is one situation where you have to call. Call 100 to win 600. You don't just have good pot odds, you have great odds. Winning would help you more than losing will hurt you. And hey, it could be worse, you do have a suited connector.

[WarDekar]

I don't really know what I'm talking about so take this advice with a grain of salt, but there is NO way I fold this.

You're calling 106 to win a pot of 712, obviously you have the pot odds to do it. Provided you aren't up against a PP, you're going to lose this hand ~60% of the time and be left with t669. ~40% of the time you come away with 1381.

If you fold here you're going to be left with 775. I don't see how the extra 106 chips is going to give you that much more future FE. The very next hand if it's folded around to you chances are you steal it anyway, regardless of whether you have 669 or 775, it's still &gt;2BB so you have a reasonably good chance of stealing either way.

Do you honestly want to fold this next time? I don't see how you can....

[poboys]

Easy call here. You risk 106 to win 606? A simple EV calc shows that you only have to win a little under 15% of the time for this to be +cEV.

I also think this is $EV. If you win, you have T1581. If you call and lose, you are sitting on T669. Not great, but you'll get the button in 1 hand (probably at T569) and have a chance. If you fold, you'll get the button with T775. You are still going to have to win some all-ins.

So the difference between folding and calling does not nearly come close to calling and winning.

[Scuba Chuck]

I called, so I agree with all the math. Great Pot odds. $EV analysis is also VERY positive. But none of this gives credibility to future FE.

[ QUOTE ]
Easy call here. You risk 106 to win 606? A simple EV calc shows that you only have to win a little under 15% of the time for this to be +cEV.


[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW, I think the probability of winning this hand is in the 17-35% range.

[ QUOTE ]
If you fold here you're going to be left with 775. I don't see how the extra 106 chips is going to give you that much more future FE.

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I think about an extra 100 chips all the time with regard to FE. And it does/could make a difference. We're talking about 15% of your stack.

Atticus, where are you? Can I make an argument to folding this? I really don't think I can.

[poboys]

[ QUOTE ]

I think about an extra 100 chips all the time with regard to FE. And it does/could make a difference. We're talking about 15% of your stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

Another way to look at it, you are giving up 1/2BB, so does it really make a difference whether you have 3.75 or 3.25BB?

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Another way to look at it, you are giving up 1/2BB, so does it really make a difference whether you have 3.75 or 3.25BB?


[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. I'm curious if anyone can walk through the argument that is valid to fold, and then point out it's flaws - considering Future FE vs. the math.