Is this too weak tight?

[Scuba Chuck]

I deliberately chose not to use the converter here...

***** Hand History for Game 1742305334 *****
50/100 TourneyTexasHTGameTable (NL) (Tournament 10427849) - Tue Mar 15 22:55:27 EST 2005
Table Table 14435 (Real Money) -- Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: piskoli (670)
Seat 2: NICOBEAR (1195)
Seat 3: jmf3926 (590)
Seat 4: BigE33 (950)
Seat 5: Flahr (640)
Seat 6: Scuba_Chuk (1355)
Seat 7: Joeykswt1 (865)
Seat 8: andnow (680)
Seat 9: Birrittella (370)
Seat 10: OleDrippy (685)
Flahr posts small blind (25)
Scuba_Chuk posts big blind (50) Note: I am the BB
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Scuba_Chuk [ Tc, Td ]
Joeykswt1 raises (200) to 200
andnow folds.
Birrittella folds.
OleDrippy folds.
piskoli folds.
NICOBEAR folds.
jmf3926 folds.
BigE33 folds.
Flahr folds.
<font color="blue"> Scuba_Chuk: u got a pair Joe?
Joeykswt1: npe
Joeykswt1: i will call any raise
Joeykswt1: so bet your aces </font>
Scuba_Chuk folds.
** Summary **
Main Pot: 275
piskoli balance 670, didn't bet (folded)
NICOBEAR balance 1195, didn't bet (folded)
jmf3926 balance 590, didn't bet (folded)
BigE33 balance 950, didn't bet (folded)
Flahr balance 615, lost 25 (folded)
Scuba_Chuk balance 1305, lost 50 (folded)
Joeykswt1 balance 940, bet 200, collected 275, net +75 [ Ad Kh ] [ high card ace -- Ad,Kh ]
andnow balance 680, didn't bet (folded)
Birrittella balance 370, didn't bet (folded)
OleDrippy balance 685, didn't bet (folded)

Well, he knew I didn't have aces. And I kind of sensed he had AK before I asked. Regardless, the range of hands I put him on led me to believe I was a dog. But then again, these are the $22s.

[Apathy]

Scuba man... you really hate playing flops eh?

You make a great PF read and then waste it by folding, use your read, see a flop and outplay him.

[shoeman]

Wow! 10 handed at the 50/100 blind level. This is a situation I wouldn't be familiar with. Seems like you had a pretty good read. Even with no read, I like a smooth call here. Play the flop.

[pokerlaw]

You have to put in 150 chips to call with 275 in the pot, the odds are solid and so is your starting hand. I would get in there and gamble. good read btw.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
Scuba man... you really hate playing flops eh?

You make a great PF read and then waste it by folding, use your read, see a flop and outplay him.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. Call and push on a safe flop.

Do not pass on solid +EV plays when you have the villian covered.

[Scuba Chuck]

Am I giving too little credibility to my read? I am probably 4 tabling here. It was just instinct. A 150 bet could be anything from JJ+, AQ+. But the 200 bet seemed a little more like it didn't want to be called.

Furthermore, I would need to give just as much credibility to AQ as well, IMO. Therefore, I would need to hope that an A, K, or Q doesn't hit the flop for me to win this post flop. What is the probability that one of those cards hits the flop? I'm guessing here, but isn't it like a 60% probability? Obviously, it needs to be reduced some for a Ten hitting the flop...

I fold for three reasons, the above was one of them. The second reason is that I would be out of position on the flop. The other reason, was that I thought I had a good chip position considering the stage of the current game. This thinking might be a leak btw.

[ColdestCall]

I'll go against the grain here and say there is nothing wrong with this fold. Sure, if he turned over AK before you had to make a decision, you would call. But the fact is, you will be out of position on the flop, and it is pretty likely that an overcard or two is going to flop. Or, maybe Villain has JJ, QQ, KK or AA. Basically, you thought he had AK, but you were far from sure, or you wouldn't have folded. If you call and the flop comes undercards, you are going to push and only get called when you are losing. If you call and the flop comes with a Q, K, or A, you are pretty hard pressed to push and, if you dont, you are going to fold (150 chips poorer) when preflop raiser bets. If the flop comes J xx, you will push and likely take down the pot. Do you really need to go to war here? You are chip leader, and a bunch of people are almost at the point where they are going to be making desperation all-ins.

I would fold here, feel very weak-tight, and talk to myself about it right up until I cashed.

Edit: Posted b4 I saw your reply to Phil.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I would fold here, feel very weak-tight, and talk to myself about it right up until I cashed.


[/ QUOTE ]

Your entire post were pretty much my thoughts (I was posting at the same time). There are a lot of arguments to be weak-tight in a tournament. I think it is more of a compliment. But there is obviously a fine line, and I'm curious how close I'm coming here.

Does anyone know the probability of a flop hitting an A, K, or Q?

[poboys]

Normally, I'd say call, and play solid after the flop. You are getting a decent overlay T75. However, in this situation, I'd fold. This table is pretty tight, all TEN players left in Level 3 at a $22 table? Yikes.

The blinds are starting to go up, you are the chip lead, and you can now start picking up the blinds against the middle of the pack. I think that for Level 3/4 (assuming my guess that everyone's pretty tight) is much more profitable than your posted situation.

[Raiser]

With you holding 2 tens and not knowing what your opponent had there is a ~43% chance that the flop doesn't contain an A, K, or Q.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
With you holding 2 tens and not knowing what your opponent had there is a ~43% chance that the flop doesn't contain an A, K, or Q.


[/ QUOTE ]

Good to know. Thank you. Where did you get that?

[ColdestCall]

[ QUOTE ]
With you holding 2 tens and not knowing what your opponent had there is a ~43% chance that the flop doesn't contain an A, K, or Q.

[/ QUOTE ]

For Scuba: I think you probably know how to do this and are just feeling a little lazy, but the percentage chance an A,K, or Q flops is 1-(38/50*37/49*36/48), where the stuff in paratheses is the combined probability of an A,K and Q not coming in three cards when you hold two cards that aren't an A,K or Q.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
With you holding 2 tens and not knowing what your opponent had there is a ~43% chance that the flop doesn't contain an A, K, or Q.


[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, so there's a 57% chance that the flop hits one of my scare cards. Another reason to fold. The odds are seriously not in my favor. I think this play is +$EV, but not +CEV.

Any dissenters? Philly dog?

[Raiser]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
With you holding 2 tens and not knowing what your opponent had there is a ~43% chance that the flop doesn't contain an A, K, or Q.


[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, so there's a 57% chance that the flop hits one of my scare cards. Another reason to fold. The odds are seriously not in my favor. I think this play is +$EV, but not +CEV.

Any dissenters? Philly dog?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not to be an over technical dick, but 57% is actually the probability that at least 1 of your scare cards hits.

[Bluff Daddy]

I like the fold, everyones saying see a flop and out play him whatever the hell that means. Id like to see what they would do when an a k or q hits? And like someone said if its a safe flop and you push your prob only going to get called if your beat.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
For Scuba: I think you probably know how to do this and are just feeling a little lazy, but the percentage chance an A,K, or Q flops is 1-(38/50*37/49*36/48), where the stuff in paratheses is the combined probability of an A,K and Q not coming in three cards when you hold two cards that aren't an A,K or Q.

[/ QUOTE ]

I love math. But I am not following this. Care to explain further?

I get the first denominator, but after that I get lost with the rest of the numbers. For example, a deck contains 12 cards that I am concerned about. Villain has two of those 12. Why do you use 38 as your first numerator?

For example the first fraction seems like it should be 38/48? Is that right?

So, essentially, to make this equation simple for the moment, to calculate the probabilities of an Ace hitting the board, when I hold AK, I would calculate that as...

1-(47/50) = 6%

And then the probabilities of an Ace or a King

1-(44/50*43/49) = 22%

Is that correct? I always thought that the probability of an Ace or King hitting the flop if you held AK was much higher than that?

Scuba
-still on the learning curve.

[Raiser]

38/48 is correct if you know your opponents cards. The calculations I did were based on "at the time of the decision" numbers.

[adanthar]

There are 3 major problems with this hand.

1)Not calling in the first place (*especially* as the chip leader)
2)Making sure to tell the guy all about your hand
3)Not at least calling AFTER HE TELLS YOU WHAT HE HAS

Bleeeeeeeeeeeh.

[ColdestCall]

[ QUOTE ]
I get the first denominator, but after that I get lost with the rest of the numbers. For example, a deck contains 12 cards that I am concerned about. Villain has two of those 12. Why do you use 38 as your first numerator?


[/ QUOTE ]

I was using the assumption that at the time of the decision you did not know for sure what was in your opponents hand. So, you have 50 unseen cards, of which 12 are A,K,Q, so the probability that an A,K,Q does not hit on the first card that comes down is 38/50. The probability that is doesn't hit on the second card is 37/49 (because now only 49 are unseen) and the probability it doesn't hit on the third card is 36/48. The combined probability that one does not hit on the flop at all, then, is 38/50*37/49*36/48, or roughly 43%, so one will hit 57% of the time.

As for the other question...

"So, essentially, to make this equation simple for the moment, to calculate the probabilities of an Ace hitting the board, when I hold AK, I would calculate that as...

1-(47/50) = 6%

And then the probabilities of an Ace or a King

1-(44/50*43/49) = 22%

Is that correct? I always thought that the probability of an Ace or King hitting the flop if you held AK was much higher than that?"

It is.

You hold AK. 50 unseen cards. 6 help you. 44 out of 50 do not. So, probability you get no help is 44/50*43/49*42/48, or 67%, so the chance you get help is 1-.67, or 33%.

Hope this is helpful (but not as much as I hope I didnt screw up the calculations /images/graemlins/tongue.gif)

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
With you holding 2 tens and not knowing what your opponent had there is a ~43% chance that the flop doesn't contain an A, K, or Q.


[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, so there's a 57% chance that the flop hits one of my scare cards. Another reason to fold. The odds are seriously not in my favor. I think this play is +$EV, but not +CEV.

Any dissenters? Philly dog?

[/ QUOTE ]

I push if a Q falls. I think AQ is possible, but I agree that AK is much more likely. JJ is also more likely than AQ, and a Q will scare the hell out of JJ.

Let me explain my thinking. I really want to push preflop, not fold. However, my quick EV evaluation of his hand leads me to believe that calling and then pushing the flop is slightly better than just pushing, and clearly better than folding.

If I lose to AQ, so be it. I would have lost to AQ if I'd pushed preflop anyway.

I know about the "you'll only get called if beat idea", but I think this is outweighed by only letting AK/AQ see 3 cards rather than 5.

Based on experience, I'm confident that playing TT here is clearly +EV. Calculating ICM/$EV in real time is a bit too much for my brain to handle, especially multitabling.

Therefore, my shortcut is simple: if the play is +EV and I'll be left with a reasonable amount of chips if I lose, then the play is probably +$EV. If an A or K flops, you'll have 1155. If not and you lose, you'll still have 490 at the 25/50 level. I can work with that: PUSH.

[The Student]

hey scuba,

my thoughts in 3 parts:

1. coldest call's math looks right to me, but i just wanted to throw in one more line - the probability of something happening (such as an A, K, or Q hitting the flop) is 1 - (the probability that it won't happen). like if the weather man says there's a 30% chance of rain, then you know that there is a 70% chance that it won't rain (1 - 70% = 30%). in some cases like this hand, it's usually easier to calculate the chance that one of those cards won't hit, then subtract that from 1, than doing it another way.

2. further rationalization for your fold: nobody else is playing like they have some real cards in this hand - which you can use as further proof that he probably has something legit and tha there are probably some more cards in the deck that would help him.

3. having said that, i still agree with adanthar - you have to play this hand. my thinking is that the play is about to get real desparate with so many people still in with short stacks at this advanced level, and here is your chance to get some chips with a real hand. i think you call here, and make a decision as to what you'll do in advance of seeing a flop (such as push any flop that doesn't have a K/Q or A, bet 2/3 pot if flop has no K or A but does have a Q, check-fold any flop with K or A, etc.). i'm reminded of a line here from some other threads - you have a real hand, the chip lead, and you have a good read that your opponent is on a draw - how good of a situation are you waiting for to commit some chips to the pot? i hate playing flops OOP too, but i don't think you can pass up this opportunity when the game is about to break open with the huge blind:stack size ratio.

ts-

edit: i just re-read the OP and saw that the blinds are at 25/50, not 50/100 as I thought. this changes the situation a little, but i still think you have to play this hand. also, i didn't realize that the PF raiser was UTG - so ignore that line about nobody else playing like they have a hand (gap concept = people might have thrown out some weak aces or kings already), but this just strengthens the argument that you should call.

[Drac]

[ QUOTE ]
If you call and the flop comes undercards, you are going to push and only get called when you are losing.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are plenty of players in the 22's that will call his all in with their unimproved AK.

[jeffraider]

I've got this guy covered so I'd be pushing before the idea to chat with him about what I've got even enters my head.

[pokerlaw]

for everyone who says fold, reverse the scenerio here: how would you have played this if instead of tens, you had slick in the BB and were facing the same raise from the same position? I feel that more people would call or even reraise, dispite the fact that tens are a better starting hand statistically....maybe I am wrong here.

I would call with either the tens or the AK. AQ also prob, but not definetly.

[ColdestCall]

[ QUOTE ]
for everyone who says fold, reverse the scenerio here: how would you have played this if instead of tens, you had slick in the BB and were facing the same raise from the same position? I feel that more people would call or even reraise, dispite the fact that tens are a better starting hand statistically....maybe I am wrong here.

I would call with either the tens or the AK. AQ also prob, but not definetly.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm still thinking about the first part of your post, but I'm pretty sure that calling in the BB with AQ is awful.

[pokerlaw]

agreed on the AQ. was thinking about it for a little longer and I realized/remembered the table was full (was just playing shorthanded on two tables for a half hour, so excuse the looseness there, lol) - definite muck w AQ.

[Raiser]

I'm not saying that you shouldn't call with tens...

but isn't the reason why calling with AK might be better than with TT here because of the possibility of villain raising with a dominated A? With AK, we are afraid of 2 hands. With TT we are afraid of 4 hands.

Am I making any sense. Smack me down please /images/graemlins/blush.gif /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[RobGW]

By level 3 you should have some type of read on UTG play. I always watch the players to my left to see how loose, tight, aggressive, passive they are since I will need to steal their blinds at some point. So if you've been paying attention you may have a read on what type of hands he plays and how he plays them. Will he make a continuation bet if the flops misses him? Does he bet differently when he has a made hand versus when he has a draw or when he completely wiffs? If so you have a clear profitable situation. If he is a good player who doesnt give any reads then I would go with your natural instincts.

[ColdestCall]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not saying that you shouldn't call with tens...

but isn't the reason why calling with AK might be better than with TT here because of the possibility of villain raising with a dominated A? With AK, we are afraid of 2 hands. With TT we are afraid of 4 hands.

Am I making any sense. Smack me down please /images/graemlins/blush.gif /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

You are making sense. Not only are we afraid of two hands versus 4 with the AK, but, as you noted, our hand now dominates hands like AQ and AJ, which were annoying two overcard coinflips when we had TT. The other nice thing about AK (from a calling standpoint) is that it is a drawing hand as opposed to a made hand. If you miss the flop, it is real easy to get away from it. Once you are involved with TT, it is very easy to lose a lot of chips by pushing on Qxx and Jxx flops when the UTG raiser has AQ or AJ, or KQ or KJ for that matter (which some people will fire in a raise with, particularly if they are soooted.)

[Scuba Chuck]

It's funny, when I folded this hand, I commented. "It's not worth fighting over 75 chips."

IMO, winning this hand ~ gaining 275 chips here ~ does help in this situation where the table is very tight. Losing this hand is more detrimental (losing 200+ chips), than the amount of chips I gain. Due to the nature of my read, my position, and the current table situation, I still think a fold is correct.

To me it came down to probabilities. At the time, I thought the probability of an A, K or Q hitting the board was greater than 50%. That was a major factor in my decision.

But perhaps this assumption is wrong. What I'm learning here is that the probability of an A/K/Q hitting in THIS SCENARIO is:
probability = 1-(38/48)(37/47)(36/46) = 1-.48 = 52%

So, if my calculations are correct, then this is a -$EV play. Furthermore, having the chip lead here, matters more in such a tight game, than the risk reward of gaining those chips. IMO, in a similar hand scenario, but with different chip stacks (i.e. more), and fewer current opponents, it would be worth it to take a chance on this coinflip.

Blast away.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I've got this guy covered so I'd be pushing before the idea to chat with him about what I've got even enters my head.

[/ QUOTE ]

The only reason to chat is because I'm already 90% confident I'm folding. Obviously if I'm 90% sure I'm playing, I'm not chatting.

[Scuba Chuck]

OK, this is the way I see this hand from a chip standpoint.

Max Win = 275 chips
Max loss = 865 chips.

Not a very good win/loss ratio.

Again, blast away.

[Drac]

I still think there are a lot of times the AK will pay you off even when it misses the flop thinking you're trying to push him around with AQ/AJ/KQ, etc. or that you're betting only a draw. At this point you probably have some kind of read on him to weigh this possiblity in your evaluation. I guess what I'm saying is your max win is more than 275.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not saying that you shouldn't call with tens...

but isn't the reason why calling with AK might be better than with TT here because of the possibility of villain raising with a dominated A? With AK, we are afraid of 2 hands. With TT we are afraid of 4 hands.

Am I making any sense. Smack me down please /images/graemlins/blush.gif /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

You are making sense. Not only are we afraid of two hands versus 4 with the AK, but, as you noted, our hand now dominates hands like AQ and AJ, which were annoying two overcard coinflips when we had TT. The other nice thing about AK (from a calling standpoint) is that it is a drawing hand as opposed to a made hand. If you miss the flop, it is real easy to get away from it. Once you are involved with TT, it is very easy to lose a lot of chips by pushing on Qxx and Jxx flops when the UTG raiser has AQ or AJ, or KQ or KJ for that matter (which some people will fire in a raise with, particularly if they are soooted.)

[/ QUOTE ]

Rather than counting the number of hands you are "afraid of", just use PokerStove to calculate the EV against a range of hands.

As for the calling with AK argument, Sklansky discusses AK specifically in Tournament Poker for Advanced Players, I believe. His conclusion is that you are usually much better off going allin pre-flop with AK. His rational is simple: with AK, you will usually need to improve you win. Hence, it is better to move all-in and guarantee that you see all 5 cards on the board. If you call, you will often have to fold if the flop misses you.

If you call with AK and the flop misses you, you can check and let him take the pot away from you. As the pre-flop raiser, it's almost an autobet for him, even with AJ or KQ.

Alternatively, you can bet out 200-300. I'm not thrilled about betting that kind of cash into a preflop UTG raiser with only Ace-high.

[spentrent]

Scuba I think I follow your line of thought here. It's the same line of thought I have at Level 1: "don't get involved in a coin flip now when it's likely that you'll have a better chance to increase your stack later."

However, in your scenario we've made it to Level 4 without getting one of those chances. With no reads -- I assume you're multitabling -- but still a full table, it's probably safe to consider the typical player at the table to be tight, such that someone holding AK is capable of folding to an over-the-top pre-flop play.

Instead of automatically thinking "coin flip, just say no," it may be time to start thinking "hey, I'm in a rock garden, it's time to push edges and enjoy the unmined fold equity that's being wasted in this game."

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess what I'm saying is your max win is more than 275.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know what you're saying here. Using your line of thought, this ultimately then increases the probability of losing all of my chips then. Which makes this an even uglier situation.

Man, do I look at things as the glass is half empty.

I'm still stuck on, "What are the reasons for me to not play this hand." This simple pro/con analysis - still leads to a fold in my book.

It's so interesting to see all the different views on this hand. I might do an $EV analysis tonight, to see if I can come up with some numbers.

It's still interesting to note, we are fighting over 75 chips. That is such an insignificant number of chips at this stage of the game.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
it may be time to start thinking "hey, I'm in a rock garden, it's time to push edges and enjoy the unmined fold equity that's being wasted in this game."

[/ QUOTE ]

Although I don't normally believe what people write in the chatbox, I did believe this line from him.

[ QUOTE ]
Joeykswt1: i will call any raise

[/ QUOTE ]

This may not be a rock garden.

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
It's still interesting to note, we are fighting over 75 chips. That is such an insignificant number of chips at this stage of the game.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain is fighting for 75 chips.

You have been offered the opportunity to fight for 275 chips.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]

I know what you're saying here. Using your line of thought, this ultimately then increases the probability of losing all of my chips then. Which makes this an even uglier situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Repeat after me: "Seeing a flop is not a bad thing to be avoided at all costs."

It's even less of a bad thing when you have the other guy covered and he's basically told you his freaking hand.

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Joeykswt1: i will call any raise

[/ QUOTE ]

This may not be a rock garden.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope you aren't letting coffee-housing force you to dismiss the rest of my post outright.

[Bigwig]

Why in the hell is everyone convinced that the raiser doesn't have AA-JJ? Cause of the table talk? Are you all this easily convinced with table talk? Give me your usernames.

[The Student]

"To me it came down to probabilities. At the time, I thought the probability of an A, K or Q hitting the board was greater than 50%. That was a major factor in my decision.

But perhaps this assumption is wrong. What I'm learning here is that the probability of an A/K/Q hitting in THIS SCENARIO is:
probability = 1-(38/48)(37/47)(36/46) = 1-.48 = 52%"

Just to be clear - this calculation is the probability that a A, K, or Q will hit on the flop assuming that the villian has 2 of those 3 scare cards.

"IMO, winning this hand ~ gaining 275 chips here ~ does help in this situation where the table is very tight. Losing this hand is more detrimental (losing 200+ chips), than the amount of chips I gain. Due to the nature of my read, my position, and the current table situation, I still think a fold is correct. "

I don't like your thinking here mainly because it seems like you don't have a real plan. Why assume that losing the hand means you lose more than 200 chips? If you call the raise and know what you're going to do depending on what flop comes up, then why assume you'll lose more than 200 chips? for example, if you call the bet knowing that you'll push any flop without a A, K, or Q, assuming that you're ahead, then you'll only lose more than 200 due to a BB. and if you'll check-fold any flop that has an A, K or Q in it, then you lose your 200 and move on with a comfortable stack. but realize that you have great pot odds here for a call - to potentially win 275 you need to put in 150 (odds of almost 2:1), but you can see from your calculations that the odds of the villian catching a scare card are only about 1:1.

still a PF call in my book.

ts-

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
Why in the hell is everyone convinced that the raiser doesn't have AA-JJ? Cause of the table talk? Are you all this easily convinced with table talk? Give me your usernames.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the raiser is capable of having AA-JJ. I also think he's capable of having AKo|AQo... not from the table talk, but from typical observed 5|10|20|30 play.

[ColdestCall]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not saying that you shouldn't call with tens...

but isn't the reason why calling with AK might be better than with TT here because of the possibility of villain raising with a dominated A? With AK, we are afraid of 2 hands. With TT we are afraid of 4 hands.

Am I making any sense. Smack me down please /images/graemlins/blush.gif /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

You are making sense. Not only are we afraid of two hands versus 4 with the AK, but, as you noted, our hand now dominates hands like AQ and AJ, which were annoying two overcard coinflips when we had TT. The other nice thing about AK (from a calling standpoint) is that it is a drawing hand as opposed to a made hand. If you miss the flop, it is real easy to get away from it. Once you are involved with TT, it is very easy to lose a lot of chips by pushing on Qxx and Jxx flops when the UTG raiser has AQ or AJ, or KQ or KJ for that matter (which some people will fire in a raise with, particularly if they are soooted.)

[/ QUOTE ]

Rather than counting the number of hands you are "afraid of", just use PokerStove to calculate the EV against a range of hands.

As for the calling with AK argument, Sklansky discusses AK specifically in Tournament Poker for Advanced Players, I believe. His conclusion is that you are usually much better off going allin pre-flop with AK. His rational is simple: with AK, you will usually need to improve you win. Hence, it is better to move all-in and guarantee that you see all 5 cards on the board. If you call, you will often have to fold if the flop misses you.

If you call with AK and the flop misses you, you can check and let him take the pot away from you. As the pre-flop raiser, it's almost an autobet for him, even with AJ or KQ.

Alternatively, you can bet out 200-300. I'm not thrilled about betting that kind of cash into a preflop UTG raiser with only Ace-high.

[/ QUOTE ]

You've got a point here, and I didn't necessarily say I WOULD call with AK, just that I like calling with it better than I like calling with TT.

FWIW, if I'm playing either AK or TT in this situation, I am pushing them preflop - it will be entirely dependent on my read of UTG raiser whether I'm playing or not. I have to either believe that I have some fold equity on the push, or that I am going to get called by a dominated hand a reasonable amount of the time. I didn't get the sense there was much FE in the OP, nor did I think the TT was likely to dominate, so I opted for fold instead of push.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I hope you aren't letting coffee-housing force you to dismiss the rest of my post outright.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I didn't, but this isn't level 4 yet. BTW, if this was level 4, my standards stop at JJ.

Now that I've had time to think about this more, no matter how I play this hand, as we're approaching level 4, villain's chips are going in the middle on the flop or post flop. It's just too valuable a hand this late in the tournament for him. And he's already committed 25% of his stack. So, the question is do I want to risk 2/3 of my stack on a coinflip?

Do you not see it that way?

[Bigwig]

I agree. I think you could also reasonably add TT (not likely in this case, of course), 99, AJ, and KQ.

Still, TT is a miserable underdog to that range, he's out of position, not desperate, etc, etc. Folding here isn't just a good play, IMO, it's by far the best play.

EDIT: Correction--he's not a dog, or if he is, only a slight one. However, he's not enough of a favorite to warrant getting crazy here.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Still, TT is a miserable underdog to that range, he's out of position, not desperate, etc, etc. Folding here isn't just a good play, IMO, it's by far the best play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, someone who resolutely agrees with my play.

We have definately gotten off topic regarding the assumptions here. Once again, I view this hand as a 50/50 chance of winning IF villain has AK. The fact that I could be dominated does also push me in favor of folding here.

[maldini]

fold preflop. you're a coinflip or much worse. if he's not UTG its a little different analysis.

regarding if he had AK: you know when you like the flop and when you dont typically. not nearly as true w/ 10s.

[curtains]

I think folding is fine. The guy is UTG.

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
Once again, I view this hand as a 50/50 chance of winning IF villain has AK. The fact that I could be dominated does also push me in favor of folding here.

[/ QUOTE ]

If AK|AQ is in his pre-flop raising range -- which I think is reasonable for the typical player at this level -- then you have a better than 50% chance of winning this bet IF he calls over time, regardless of what he shows down in this instance.

Bigwig's probably right about this typical player in that 99|AJ|KQ could be added to his range. If this is the case, you're at least a 60% favorite, considering the number of card combinations that (1) dominate TT, (2) are even with TT, and (3) are dominated by TT.

And we have to consider fold equity. There's a chance that you will knock AK|AQ|KQ|AJ out of the pot. Maybe even QQ|JJ (but let's not get our hopes up /images/graemlins/wink.gif).

Finally, we have to consider whether it's worth it if he calls and you win. You'll have ~2200 chips; given your mid-game and bubble skills, you're definitely ITM.

I push pre-flop. I think I'm a 60+% favorite if he calls, but I'm happy to take the chips right now.

You're right Chuck, he might have you beat. But that's always the case every time you play a hand.

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
I think folding is fine. The guy is UTG.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think position matters to the typical $20+2 player.

[curtains]

I just don't like moving allin with TT here, I don't know what to say. In a normal game, I'd never dream of anything but folding here unless I knew something about my opponent, or the stacks were really deep. Maybe this all changes in a $20 tournament but I'd be surprised.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Still, TT is a miserable underdog to that range, he's out of position, not desperate, etc, etc. Folding here isn't just a good play, IMO, it's by far the best play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, someone who resolutely agrees with my play.

We have definately gotten off topic regarding the assumptions here. Once again, I view this hand as a 50/50 chance of winning IF villain has AK. The fact that I could be dominated does also push me in favor of folding here.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are starting to sell me on the fold. I'm not sure I'd fold, but I'm not sure it's wrong either.

I'm also more convinced that you weren't the hero in your Standard? (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Number=1931928&amp;page=&amp;view=&amp;sb=5&amp; o=&amp;fpart=1&amp;vc=1) post.

[Elem100]

Hoho. I do a degree in maths (I found the number of threads working out the % of cards flopping etc very amusing). Mathematically, all those saying he should do anything but fold here are just plain, utterly, wrong. I'm amazed there is even discussion.

Of Villians likely 56 raising hands, 24 dominate you, and your out of position so even if you get your 9-high flop your screwed. The remaining 32 hands he isnt calling all his chips if he doesnt hit.

This is a no brainer.

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
I just don't like moving allin with TT here, I don't know what to say. In a normal game, I'd never dream of anything but folding here unless I knew something about my opponent, or the stacks were really deep. Maybe this all changes in a $20 tournament but I'd be surprised.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand what you're saying, and I agree-- when the stakes are higher.

I need to do some data-mining to back up my feeling about the typical $20+2 player. I'll admit that.

I'm basing my play suggestion on the feeling I've gotten after playing a bunch of $10+1/$20+2 games. I believe that the typical opponent overvalues his hand pre-flop. This typical opponent has a dramatically larger range for raising -- even when out of position, including UTG -- than you would expect from a typical "solid" player.

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
Hoho. I do a degree in maths (I found the number of threads working out the % of cards flopping etc very amusing). Mathematically, all those saying he should do anything but fold here are just plain, utterly, wrong. I'm amazed there is even discussion.

Of Villians likely 56 raising hands, 24 dominate you, and your out of position so even if you get your 9-high flop your screwed. The remaining 32 hands he isnt calling all his chips if he doesnt hit.

This is a no brainer.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're completely ignoring "re-raise all-in" as an option. Which might make it a no-brainer, but not the no-brainer you suggest.

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Once again, I view this hand as a 50/50 chance of winning IF villain has AK. The fact that I could be dominated does also push me in favor of folding here.

[/ QUOTE ]

If AK|AQ is in his pre-flop raising range -- which I think is reasonable for the typical player at this level -- then you have a better than 50% chance of winning this bet IF he calls over time, regardless of what he shows down in this instance.

Bigwig's probably right about this typical player in that 99|AJ|KQ could be added to his range. If this is the case, you're at least a 60% favorite, considering the number of card combinations that (1) dominate TT, (2) are even with TT, and (3) are dominated by TT.

And we have to consider fold equity. There's a chance that you will knock AK|AQ|KQ|AJ out of the pot. Maybe even QQ|JJ (but let's not get our hopes up /images/graemlins/wink.gif).

Finally, we have to consider whether it's worth it if he calls and you win. You'll have ~2200 chips; given your mid-game and bubble skills, you're definitely ITM.

I push pre-flop. I think I'm a 60+% favorite if he calls, but I'm happy to take the chips right now.

You're right Chuck, he might have you beat. But that's always the case every time you play a hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh?

TT has about 48.2% equity vs AA-99, AK-AJ, &amp; KQ, not 60+%.

[microbet]

It always seems to come down to 'call in a low buyin, fold in a high buyin', but if he overvalues his hand you have to worry more about A, K, Q, or J on the flop. If you are at a higher limit against a player you think knows the value of hands, then you can be more confident about your read that he doesn't want to be called and that that then means AK or low PP and not KJo.

[this post is not particularly well placed in response to spentrent or even really what curtains was saying - more of a general response that sort of fits in ]

[curtains]

To me it really comes down to fold in any buyin. Unless you know the UTG specifically is insane.

[Elem100]

Oh yeah, move all in:

4/5*24/56 + 10/23*32/56 = 60% of the time we lose nearly all our stack.

Clearly this is a great time to go all in.

[Degen]

don't see how u can call this weak TIGHT...this implies that when you do enter a pot, you are passive...this is just very, very tight

i personally would call the raise and play the hand after that, i suppose that is weak tight hehe, thats how i play in the beginning...if were a little later on i'd juice it PF, but don't see why you'd fold...


Degen

[pooh74]

This was barely mentioned earlier, but he is getting 2-1 to see the flop with a solid starting hand. This must be factored in when calculating the likelihood of x coming on the flop (IOW if u knew for sure he had AK or AQ, then actually you're better than you thought bc of the pot odds you are receiving here, youre not the button). Im not saying this isnt a good fold, just that it isnt a bad call.

[valenzuela]

No way I fold pocket tens if I know my oponent hands...I would even call with 23o if I know he has AK.

[raptor517]

you would call with 23 there? thats certainly an interesting play i dont think i have ever made.. as for the 10s, i really like a fold. certainly no reason to get in there. you fold u still have around 1.3k chips, with the average being 800. you dont need to get in a coinflip right now. the rest of the table will start going crazy in the next 10 hands anyway. save your chips right here, as i think in this situation you are most definitely a slight favorite or huge dog.

[SuitedSixes]

http://usera.imagecave.com/BSwing23/scubapwn.JPG