here's a turn checkraise against a TAG player. profitable?

[DMBFan23]

hey y'all,

villain is a decent TAG, 18/10/2.1 over about 400 or so hands.

I'm UTG with red JJ and I raise. TAG 3 bets me UTG plus 1, and everyone folds around to me and I call.

flop is 568, rainbow. I check, he bets, I call.

turn is a K spade completing the rainbow. I check, he bets, I raise

good? bad? spewing?

[Nick C]

Well, I guess you might push him off of QQ, but is he going to have that often enough (and will he fold it often enough when he does)?

Getting him to fold AQs and AQo would have its merits too, though, I'll admit.

[chesspain]

I don't like this checkraise. When it is your turn to act, there are 5.5BB in the pot. So you are betting 2BB in the hopes that he is holding QQ and will fold them, which is really the only good result for you. If he has AQ it doesn't matter much one way or the other if he folds or calls the checkraise. Unfortunately, there are a lot more ways for there to be bad results, which include:

1) He folds TT/99.
2) He three-bets you.
3) He just calls you, which leaves you in no-man's land against someone who is not folding his QQ on the river (and not calling if his AQ fails to improve).

[DMBFan23]

good post chesspain. I posted the hand because I was in fact villain, and I had QQ. he called me down instead of checkraising me, and I just didnt want to be results oriented in wondering whether his checkraise would have had any merit had he employed it. I agree that the only hand we're dying for him to fold is QQ, AQ maybe.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree that the only hand we're dying for him to fold is QQ, AQ maybe.

[/ QUOTE ]

Although he makes a mistake by folding AQ, it's not a huge mistake--meaning, I don't think it turns the checkraise into a +EV play.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
When it is your turn to act, there are 5.5BB in the pot. So you are betting 2BB in the hopes that he is holding QQ and will fold them

[/ QUOTE ]

Right.

AA - 6
AK - 12
KK - 3
QQ - 6
JJ - 1

So you are 7:21, or 3:1 on this bet -- not quite enough, especially if he might not fold QQ. If you add in TT, 99 as possible 3-bet hands for him, then calling down is clearly superior. And if you don't, you still just barely have odds to call down.

What about betting out, and folding to a raise? You still might get QQ to fold here, and it cost only half as much.

gm