What do you *believe* the *Official* ITM and ROI thread

[citanul]

What do you believe is a good strong, successful player's ROI and ITM for each Party Poker level? Assume that player is playing 1 table.

Sorry, I entered this before I was done, because I don't know how the polling thing works just yet.

Here's the rest of what I wanted to say: I'd like to see what people believe the attainable stats are for each level. We can get into people's actual experienced win rates in the posts if people want.

If someone wants to append to this post the formulae, or a link to a discussion of formulae for the confidence intervals for ITM and ROI, that would be great.

citanul

[eastbay]

IMO, the most important variable has been completely left out.

eastbay

[eastbay]

IMO, the most important variable has been completely left out. Therefore, I have no answers.

eastbay

[citanul]

You want hourly rate?

citanul

[lorinda]

What do you believe..... playing x tables......

Lori

[citanul]

sigh. i editted it to have 1 table.

citanul

edit: If I could make it a giant matrix, I would, honestly, I don't think that the majority of people who will answer the poll will have differences they will be able to pinpoint down to even within 5% for how they think winrate changes when you move from 1 to 4 to 8 tables.

[lorinda]

Well not sure if you had that in there before, but if you did I have no idea what it could be /images/graemlins/blush.gif

Lori

[Scuba Chuck]

Eastbay, IMO, you've left one variable completely out. Your 7 digits. (or ten digits for that matter). How do we get a hold of you now?

[eastbay]

Ok, now it's 1-tabling. But now nobody who really might have any idea knows how to answer, because all those same people multitable. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Those same people generally aren't into believing things for which they have no evidence, either. Ok, maybe I'm just speaking for myself now.

eastbay

[Scuba Chuck]

Is this just for fun? I can't imagine what monkeys are going to be putting in their - the truth or lies. I think it's all lies I say, all lies.

[Scuba Chuck]

Who the hell plays one table at a time?

[citanul]

AAAAARGH.

citanul

eastbay, could you at least a guy a hand and hook me up with a discussion of the confidence intervals that isn't total loony crap, or someone just going "2000 tournaments minimum"?

[citanul]

well, i didn't ask them what they do, i asked them what they *thought* a strong player could do.

it's only half for fun.

[lorinda]

Could the person who voted 26-30% ITM in the 200s please provide an amazing explaination about coming first being very important, or just shoot themselves.

Lori

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Could the person who voted 26-30% ITM in the 200s please provide an amazing explaination about coming first being very important, or just shoot themselves.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

Wa Chissssshhhhhh - "Crack that whip."

[citanul]

too low?

citanul

[Daliman]

I find it funny that highest ROI for 100's is 21-25, but for 200's, someone said 26-30, lol.

26-30 is impossible in 200's.

[lorinda]

too low?

30% of the players finish ITM.
If 26% was a good player, I would like to be the fish in that game, preferably with 9 good players.

Lori

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Could the person who voted 26-30% ITM in the 200s please provide an amazing explaination about coming first being very important, or just shoot themselves.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

It wasn't me but I almost did because I thought it was ROI. But who cares about maximum ITM, anyway?

Incidentally some of those higher end numbers are waaaaay off.

[lorinda]

but I almost did because I thought it was ROI

This would make sense.

The $33 ROI poll is scaring me.

Lori

[citanul]

I know, I was kidding around /images/graemlins/smile.gif

citanul

[citanul]

Where would you put the numbers for the 55s, 109s, and 215s?
part of the point is that people who think that the results are silly should chime in with knowledge, instead of just saying "this is silly." that way, if there's a decent discussion, one could point people who ask "what's the difficulty/roi drops/etc associated with moving up?" to one place.

citanul

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]

eastbay, could you at least a guy a hand and hook me up with a discussion of the confidence intervals that isn't total loony crap, or someone just going "2000 tournaments minimum"?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, man, since I've been picking on you I will do some quick calculations on the topic and get back to you shortly.

eastbay

[Barrett's Last Privateer]

citanul,

I'm not eastbay, but I'll have a stab!

I'm only going to consdier ITM, beacsue it's easier.

If I've played N tournaments and cashed X times, then a 95% confidence interval for my ITM, P is

X/N - 1.96*sigma < P <= X/N + 1.96*sigma where

sigma = square root of (1/N)*(X/N)*(1 - X/N)

to change from 95% to another level of confidence it's the 1.96 that has to chnage.
For 90% use 1.645, for 99% use 2.575

As far as sample size is concerned, this is actually basically okay provided the 95% confidence interval is stricly between zero and one. The confidence interval obviously gets smaller the bigger the number of trials, but as long as it's between zero and one you're laughing.

So for ITM values which will be in the range .3 to .5, even 10 trials could be enough to give a valid (though wide) confidence interval.

4 cashes from 10 SNGs gives a 95% confidence interval the true ITM is between 10% and 70% (woop de doo!)

40 cahses from 100 SNGs gives a 95% CI of (30,50)

200 cashes from 500 gives (36,44)

400 from 1000 gives (37,43)

and so on.

Hope this was useful and if someone else posted a better response in the time it take me to type this y'all read that one instead!

BLP

[Daliman]

I said 31-35 i think ROI for 33's. Is that too high?

[ilya]

I only feel qualified to answer for $20 tournaments.

I think an ITM in the upper end of the 35-40% range and an ROI of 16-20% are "good, strong" numbers. I would consider an ITM of of 42-44% and an ROI in the mid-twenties to be excellent/exceptional.

[Mr_J]

"I said 31-35 i think ROI for 33's. Is that too high?"

Think I remember a post by Eastbay saying he was hitting around 30% 1-2 tabling.

[Mr_J]

" I'd like to see what people believe the attainable stats are for each level."

Realistic or max???

These are my thoughts of solid mutlitabling (4+)

$33 low 20s.
$55 15%
$109 10%
$215 7%

I know there are people doing better, like high 20s for the $33s, low 20s for the $55s, high teens for $109s and low-mid teens for $215s, but those figures provide a solid $/hr and I'd be happy with any of them ($10 at $109s would make me $100 an hour, tax-free).

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
"I said 31-35 i think ROI for 33's. Is that too high?"

Think I remember a post by Eastbay saying he was hitting around 30% 1-2 tabling.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh jeez, then i could EASILY do 41-45.... /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
"I said 31-35 i think ROI for 33's. Is that too high?"

Think I remember a post by Eastbay saying he was hitting around 30% 1-2 tabling.

[/ QUOTE ]

That was 55's. My observed ROI was higher in $33s but I didn't stick around there that long.

eastbay

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
Eastbay, IMO, you've left one variable completely out. Your 7 digits. (or ten digits for that matter). How do we get a hold of you now?

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess my sense of humor fell asleep, either that or I didn't get my Scuba decoder ring despite waiting 6-8 weeks for delivery. Do you mean I'm not posting as much?

eastbay

[squire]

hello, i am have been lurking here for a while now. i have only been playin for about 9 months and hooked already. i see the term roi everywhere in this forum but still dont know what it means and how to work my own out, please let the light dawn on my marble head and fill me in.

[Degen]

i 4-table and hit 27.5%

[Degen]

Return On Investment...each time you play...so a 20% ROI for a $55 buy-in event gives you an average of $11 profit, in the long run, for each tourney uou play.


Degen

[squire]

at last!
thank you sir

[raptor517]

ok, well, my thoughts as for the 4 tabling maxes. over 750 sngs i had a 19% roi 4 and 8 tabling at the 55 level, so i think that probably around 21% would be the straight up MAX.

as for 109s, 4 and 8 tabling, i have pulled such terrible numbers that 10% would be super great for me, but definitely not the max attainable. i would say it is somewhere around 18%, and it is definitely my goal to get there. holla

[apd138]

I hit the mid 44% ITM and 32% ROI for six tabling $11 and my stats were significantly better when I was 4 tabling.

[Apathy]

Then why not move up? I am positive your roi would not decrease by half moving up to the 20 dollar level.

As for the other questions in this post I like the numbers Raptor gives for the 50s and 100s but I think that even playing 4 tables he slightly underestimates the max roi attainable for those levels, especially the 55's.

If you throw game selection in the mix you could do amazing things in terms of roi (but who cares about roi anyways?) roi doesn't pay any bills.