Tricky two pair

[Petro]

First orbit at the table, so no good reads. Looks like the normal party crew from my limited time at the table.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (14 SB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (13 BB) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

River: (23 BB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, BB folds, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

Final Pot: 31 BB

[milesdyson]

What is tricky about it? No one really came to life on the turn (MP1 is surely 3-betting with the nuts here). MP1 usually has like A6 or K6 here, and that river didn't improve anyone.

Nice hand all the way around.

[toss]

MP1 bets out of nowhere on the turn. I would still raise it like you did to protect your hand and who knows, he might be betting with a flush draw or lower two-pair. I think I would also raise the river. Nice big pot.

[Russ McGinley]

I like it all the way. Your river raise got an extra 3 BBs in there, definitely worth it as you'll surely have the best hand 1 out of 4 times.

[Isura]

I don't like raising the river. Better to go for the overcalls.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like raising the river. Better to go for the overcalls.

[/ QUOTE ]
IMO, there are quite a few river cards that hero shouldn't be raising, but this isn't one of them.

[Isura]

Yeah, but what happens when everyone after folds to MP3 who 3-bets? Looks like JJ or the nut straight to me.

[istewart]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, but what happens when everyone after folds to MP3 who 3-bets? Looks like JJ or the nut straight to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

??

[toss]

Why does it look like JJ or the nut straight?

[Isura]

Yeah, but what happens when everyone after folds to MP3 who 3-bets? I think you are letting the outcome determine that it was a good play to 3-bet.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, but what happens when everyone after folds to MP3 who 3-bets? Looks like JJ or the nut straight to me.

[/ QUOTE ]
You're putting MP3 on either of those? The great thing here is most weak players won't raise JJ ever on this board, and there's no possible way - based on the turn action - that MP3 has the nut straight. I repeat - no possible way. He called closing the action after the entire field showed a yearning to throw away money.

[Isura]

I typed that pretty fast. I don't put him on such a narrow range, but 5-handed on the river, I don't think raising is +EV. If your equity is 25%, you need 3 callers to your raise to make this +EV (as a value raise), and you're NEVER folding better hand here. I don't think you'll get 3 worst hands to call to make this profitable.

[Petro]

MP1 flips over Q10o for the flopped nut straight and a spot on the buddy list.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
5-handed on the river, I don't think raising is +EV. If your equity is 25%, you need 3 callers to your raise to make this +EV (as a value raise), and you're NEVER folding better hand here. I don't think you'll get 3 worst hands to call to make this profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]
Are you assuming that everyone behind us is automatically calling if we just call? There are only two people behind us to call. That's an extra 2 BB - if they both always call.

If we raise, MP1 and MP3 are almost always calling, and those behind us may coldcall (which they will often do if they would have overcalled anyway). The way the hand went down, I'd say we're ahead on the river almost all the time, so our goal should be getting the most bets. I don't mind putting 2 BB of my own in there, because I think it's coming right back to me anyway.

MP1 is awesome, btw.

[Isura]

No I'm not assuming everyone autocalls. My post implies that everyone calling is the best situation for hero, since it puts in plenty of dead money in. But 1 call, and a reraise is more likely, or 2 calls. In both cases, I think it's very close but I lean towards calling. I just don't think that raising is obvious. Reads would have been nice in this hand.

[milesdyson]

I just don't see us getting 3-bet on this river unless someone rivered a set of 7s. The river card didn't improve anyone's hand otherwise, and MP1's and MP3's actions on the flop and turn almost always mean we're ahead of them. If either of them 3-bet the turn, my take on the hand is completely different. I can't not raise this river here.

[Russ McGinley]

Best case scenario if you call: Both blinds overcall - +2 BB
Worst case scenario if you raise: Both blinds fold, MP1 and MP3 call - +2 BB

So...

[Isura]

Best case scenario if you call: Both blinds overcall - +2 BB

Isn't that +4BB then? Maybe I'm being dense, I don't understand how you got this.

Also, worst scenerio is when 2 fold, and MP1 or MP3 raises. Unless you think it's okay to fold to a 3-bet.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
Best case scenario if you call: Both blinds overcall - +2 BB

Isn't that +4BB then? Maybe I'm being dense, I don't understand how you got this.

[/ QUOTE ]
??? MP1 and MP3 have already put their BBs in when it gets to you. Your action, calling or raising, does not include these bets. They are already part of the pot. If both blinds call, your action of calling netted you 2 more BB. If both blinds fold, your action of calling netted 0 BB. If you raise, both blinds fold, and MP1 and MP3 call, raising netted 2 BB. Raising costs more, but we're ahead so often here I'm not even taking that into account.

[Russ McGinley]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Best case scenario if you call: Both blinds overcall - +2 BB

Isn't that +4BB then? Maybe I'm being dense, I don't understand how you got this.

[/ QUOTE ]
??? MP1 and MP3 have already put their BBs in when it gets to you. Your action, calling or raising, does not include these bets. They are already part of the pot. If both blinds call, your action of calling netted you 2 more BB. If both blinds fold, your action of calling netted 0 BB. If you raise, both blinds fold, and MP1 and MP3 call, raising netted 2 BB. Raising costs more, but we're ahead so often here I'm not even taking that into account.

[/ QUOTE ]

What he said. You will be ahead enough times for this to be a profitable river raise based on the action.

[Ralf]

[ QUOTE ]
MP1 flips over Q10o for the flopped nut straight and a spot on the buddy list.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe he's allergic to nuts? Heh heh heh.

[zeropotential]

with the super-multiway pot going on you clearly did the right thing! think offall the money that these people are putting in, you only have to win ~20% of the time for this to show profit!