Another River Value Bet Question; But an Interesting Flop Decision Too [Archive]

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Catt

03-16-2005, 01:30 AM

I have posted several hands over the last week, all of which have focused on river decisions. Here is another. But I also think the flop and turn (less so) are interesting.

Limited read on Villain; he seems really loose pre-flop and fairly likely to raise if he's coming in from anywhere reasonably close to the button. Nothing specific on post-flop play other than he takes marginal hands too far, and is prone to agression rather than passivity - I think but don't know that he is willing to bluff bet and even bluff raise, but not enough hands to say with any confidence. If anyone thinks it worthwhile, then (1) I think his screen-name is totally fishy -- something like "TheRickster1981" (not the real screen name); and (2) his stats over a whopping thrity hands are 45/15/1.2. My table image should be almost non-existant (short-time at table), but if anything a bit tight since I haven't gotten any real hands in 3 orbits or so at the table.

The blinds are TAGs; given different table circumstances, I might fold or cold-call pre-flop instead of 3-betting as I did in this hand. I'm open to comments on pre-flop but not terribly interested in debating it since I feel it was based almost entirely on my feel / read of the players at the table -- I'm not convinced any debate on pre-flop play would shed any light on the game in general or this hand in particular but certainly comment if you want to.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, 1 fold, MP2 raises, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
UTG+2 checks, MP2 bets, MP3 calls, Hero raises, UTG+2 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (9.75 BB) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
MP2 bets, MP3 folds, Hero calls.

River: (11.75 BB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero . . .

toss

03-16-2005, 01:38 AM

I like the flop raise to protect your share of the pot. Villain's stop'n go makes me confused too. He is loose PF, but his postflop aggression doesn't look so bad. I'd probably just check behind since I only see him calling with a worse Q.

adamstewart

03-16-2005, 01:43 AM

Edited: the first time i read your post, I didn't read the essay preface: 3-bet preflop is good.

FLOP: good.

TURN: eek. You're probably behind with him still leading into you. But may not be, and you still have 10.75:1 odds to call your 5-outer.

RIVER: check it through, and hope for the best.

Adam

Shillx

03-16-2005, 01:46 AM

I would bet the river. At worst it is a small mistake. His stop and go looks a lot like Kx, but you never know. He might have something like JT /images/graemlins/club.gif or a smaller pair.

Folding preflop would be a bit silly no wouldn't it?

Brad

chesspain

03-16-2005, 01:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Folding preflop would be a bit silly no wouldn't it?

[/ QUOTE ]

How could he fold preflop with killer reads like:

[ QUOTE ]
(1) I think his screen-name is totally fishy -- something like "TheRickster1981" (not the real screen name); and (2) his stats over a whopping thrity hands are 45/15/1.2.

[/ QUOTE ]

adamstewart

03-16-2005, 02:05 AM

I think he was referring to my intial post.

But when I first responeded, i didn't actually to take the time to read the novel preface. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

I have since edited my response.

Adam

adamstewart

03-16-2005, 02:06 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I would bet the river. At worst it is a small mistake. His stop and go looks a lot like Kx, but you never know. He might have something like JT /images/graemlins/club.gif or a smaller pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't get why you recommend betting.

What hands call that Hero beats???

Adam

Catt

03-16-2005, 02:13 AM

[ QUOTE ]
But when I first responded, i didn't actually to take the time to read the novel preface. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, that's an edited post. Be thankful I didn't post what I wrote the first time through -- that would be a true short story. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Catt

03-16-2005, 03:31 PM

Any other thoughts out there? I am still struggling to find confidence in my decision-making on river value-bet or check situations.

I ended up checking behind in this hand. My thinking was more or less: I have trouble finding a whole lot of hands that I beat and that call on the river (smaller pocket pairs, maybe a Q with worse kicker, maybe some random hand like AJo that Villain played like a donkey). I'd be a lot more comfortable with the decision (either way) if I had a real read on Villain, so maybe that answers my own question . . . but his line seemed so strange that I defaulted to the easier (maybe weaker) decision to check behind. Still would appreciate anny thoughts from those interested.

ElSapo

03-16-2005, 03:38 PM

Personally, I don't have any problems folding AQ in Party's 2/4 games... Absent any particular reads, I just muck it. Most players in that game, aside from the TAGs, trend toward passive.

The post-flop play is very weird. I'd tend to play it the same, I suppose, and not expect to win.

Fat Nicky

03-16-2005, 04:07 PM

I like how you played the whole hand. awesome flop raise. given the read on the villain after this insignificant amount of hands, i am getting to showdown with my hand as cheap as possible after he bet the turn...so, check the river.

chief444

03-16-2005, 04:32 PM

I think I agree with a river check. But the opponent's play is so unusual that I'm tempted to bet. I think it's fairly close. I wouldn't bet if I intended to call a raise though.

ElSapo

03-16-2005, 04:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think I agree with a river check. But the opponent's play is so unusual that I'm tempted to bet. I think it's fairly close. I wouldn't bet if I intended to call a raise though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd check it through, because I couldn't lay down to a raise.

Really, the play is consistent with that of a bad player -- it makes no sense because the though process is off. It looks like a poor player with a strong but susceptible holding. He can envision hero holding KQ or KK or QQ or the like, while he holds aces.

Just some ideas... He could also have JJ, TT or AJ and is trying to win the pot by putting in one bet per street.

I think the play looks really odd not because of what the opponent is holding, but because of what he's thinking.

I'm genuinely curious.

ElSapo

Catt

03-16-2005, 05:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think the play looks really odd not because of what the opponent is holding, but because of what he's thinking.

I'm genuinely curious.

[/ QUOTE ]

Results in white:

Villain turns over JJ and MHIG.

ElSapo

03-16-2005, 05:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think the play looks really odd not because of what the opponent is holding, but because of what he's thinking.

I'm genuinely curious.

[/ QUOTE ]

Results in white:

Villain turns over JJ and MHIG.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]

Just some ideas... He could also have JJ, TT or AJ and is trying to win the pot by putting in one bet per street.

[/ QUOTE ]

Man, I should turn pro immediately. Like, walk out of my job right now.... Right now... Right ...