your move- KTo $200 sit and go

[curtains]

***** Hand History for Game 1733959092 *****
200/400 TOURNEYTEXASHTGAMETABLE (NL) (TOURNAMENT 10378421) - MON MAR 14 05:02:06 EST 2005
Table Table 11673 (Real Money) -- Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 4: VcH1610 (2730)
Seat 8: Kevyamdog (4300)
Seat 9: curtainz (1570)
Seat 10: meals123 (1400)
Kevyamdog posts small blind (100)
curtainz posts big blind (200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to curtainz [ Kc, Ts ]
meals123 folds.
VcH1610 folds.
Kevyamdog raises (375) to 475

[raptor517]

cough, cough. fold. cough. dont push. he has Ax and will call. cough. holla

[superbrawl]

As I looked at this my gut said fold. Then I saw Raptor was the first to respond and was SURE he was going to say push.....Once again...im wrong.

What if OP small stack had t1600?

[raptor517]

lol, thanks J. no but foreal, the enemy monster has 4300 HP and you only have 1570. therefore, unless u are fighting back with a GF at your side and a potion or 2, you are screwed. GF being an actual good hand, not K10o, and a potion being more chips to get some FE out of this. im pretty much push push push, then think about how its not correct, but here its a fold. holla

[Elektrik]

I think it's a fold. He's got decent odds to call your all in...and you defintely don't want a 60/40 or whatever here.

Also, you have the other shortish stack being BB next hand, which can make for an easy steal depending upon how aggressive your table is.

[Paul2432]

Can we assume that this raise is standard for the situation for this player? If I was the SB here I would usually just raise all-in or fold. If your opponent here was normally raising all-in and now all of the sudden puts in this weak raise that would set off alarm bells.

Assuming this was his normal raise, I would call. Your pot odds are pretty good, better than 2:1, and you have position. Your hand is too strong to fold given the pot odds, and like the others have said, raising all-in is not likely to get him to fold. Of course if you have some reason to think he will fold to an all-in even just some of the time then moving all-in is mandatory.

I would be willing to call all-in on the flop if I make a pair, an OESD, a flush draw, maybe a gutshot plus overcard. If my opponent checks, whether I move in or take a free card would depend on the texture of the board and the tendencies of this opponent.

Just my opinion, would love to hear other discussion.

Paul

[Scuba Chuck]

I fold, look for better opp. Why the question?

[Scuba Chuck]

A reraise allin gives villain 1.6:1 pot odds. Paul, this is an interesting thought process here. This requires a big assumption. That villain is raising with ANY two.

Let's say villain will call with top 50% of hands, and that you will win 50% of those that are called. That means that 75% of the time you win this hand, and 25% of the time you lose.

Curtains, is this where you're going with this? Let's narrow this range a little more. I would think villain will call with any pair, any ace, any K, any two broadway cards, and suited connectors. Big range. that's 65 hands, or top 38% of hands (actually a little less because it includes pairs). So our equation should look like this...

$EV - Prize Equity structure analysis
KTo is exactly 50% win probability against this range.

Fold = 18.01%

ICM Numbers:
Push, fold = 23.0%
Push, call win = 29.2%

So Push = (.62)(.23) + (.38)(.50)(.292)
Push = .1426 + .05548
Push = .1981 or 19.81%

Is this small edge something that you need to employ on the $200s? On the $33s, there's just way too many other opportunities to take advantage of, I would still fold this. There are better EV opportunities than this for me.

[Nick B.]

I would call and call all in/push if I pair up.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I would call and call all in/push if I pair up.

[/ QUOTE ]

This move would seem like a leak to me, but....

[SuitedSixes]

Surprise. I fold.

[SuitedSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would call and call all in/push if I pair up.

[/ QUOTE ]

This move would seem like a leak to me, but....

[/ QUOTE ]

...but you've never played poker on TV.

[Nick B.]

I think he is giving you a very good price to double up. You will still have enough chips to have FE if you call and miss. Nobody is close to busting out, and doubling up will help you to win and make getting in the money easier. You have high cards, so if you pair up, they are likely to hold up. You probably aren't dominated and if you are, it would be rare to pair up your dominated card.

[Nick B.]

So what happened, did you fold?

[curtains]

I went allin (Don't really like it), and got called by A2h and lost.

[jeffraider]

If it were me, I'd push and then the big stack would autofold despite his good pot odds and better than average hand because by that point in the tourney he would know what a sexual tyrannosaurus I am.

You should probably have folded though.

[Nick B.]

Well next time win.

[stlip]

Is this a question of your table image, or past games with this player, because A2, even suited, even with the big stack, seems like an awfully risky calling hand for a push since he's about a 2-1 underdog against most PP or A high hands that would likely be the major part of the range you would push with.

I would probably just call to see the flop. If you hit, great, if nobody hits it might well just check through and you could end up seeing the turn and river for free anyway.

I understand the reluctance to bleed any chips around the bubble, but this might represent a stronger relative hand and position than that next one you're saving the chips for with a fold, so I'd be willing to invest a portion of my stack for a look.

[curtains]

Well the SB played quite poorly to not move allin preflop. By moving allin preflop he eliminates a lot of aces. By min raising he enticed me to move allin on a 45-47% shot, not something that you should salivate over this late in a sit and go.