PDA

View Full Version : Double gutshot where 3 outs = split pot and 4 outs = huge pot for me.


ihardlyknowher
03-15-2005, 03:07 PM
Villain1 is pretty rocky. Villain2 is loose passive.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif. CO (Villain2) posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 (Villain1) raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO (Villain2) (poster) calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Villain1 bets</font>, Villain2 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Villain1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Villain2 raises</font>, Hero calls, Villain1 folds.

River: (10.25 BB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Villain2 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, Villain2 calls.

Final Pot: 16.25 BB

riffraff
03-15-2005, 03:14 PM
First, KJo is not a hand you want to play UTG+1. Easy fold pre-flop.

On the flop you are playing out of position against a pre-flop raiser who you describe as "rocky". You should fold. It's not possible to determine if you are drawing dead or to 6 outs.

The turn improves your hand to give a double-gutshot.. again you don't know exactly where you are except that a non-diamond queen will make your hand. It's bet and raised before you.. board has 2 diamonds on it.. egadz. Maybe fold?

Ok, you got there on the river.. reap the rewards of your suckout. A runner-runner of this magnitude should be paid off this well.

stoxtrader
03-15-2005, 03:17 PM
This is a fold pre-flop...does ed miller really advocate KJo in EP?

Flop play is good.

Turn is a fold, what are your outs? what is the size of the pot? how much does it cost?

the risk does not justify the reward.

river nice lead.

mr pink
03-15-2005, 03:19 PM
i'd dump this preflop on most tables. i don't like the flop call either. you're getting 9.5 to 1 closing the action but your hand is worth a generous 3.5 outs. i'd just fold the flop and move on.

Entity
03-15-2005, 03:19 PM
I would fold preflop. I'd also probably fold the flop.

The turn and river are fine.

Rob

istewart
03-15-2005, 03:20 PM
The turn is 4:1 with a double-gutshot. The possibility of being reraised sucks, and your overcards are not that great, but I'm not sure it's a clear fold. Wrong?

Thigh
03-15-2005, 03:32 PM
If it's not a suckout, this is pretty close. Villain1 is a rock who raised PF, then bet out on the flop. Villain2 raised on the turn, and he's LP.

Now, knowing play at the micro level, I wouldn't be at all surprised if they were raising over nothing. But then the read on them is wrong.

Your behind on the odds on the flop, and the turn. The turn pot is giving somewhere around 3.6:1, and your pulling to around 7 outs. Giving you 5.6:1. Not to mention there's a flush draw on the board.

This could definitely be classified as a suckout by less patient people.

btspider
03-15-2005, 03:35 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I would fold preflop. I'd also probably fold the flop.

The turn and river are fine.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

turn is a bit close, but i don't expect the PFR to 3-bet an overpair with this board. we might split if we catch the bottom gutter.. so we have a few less outs here. i don't think we need to be worried about the flush unless the PFR has overcards of flushes.

riffraff
03-15-2005, 03:40 PM
What does patience have to do with it?

Someone goes runner-runner vs me on a 2-flush (or 3-flush) flop with none in their hand and no other outs I consider it a suckout.. might just be me tho. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Thigh
03-15-2005, 03:43 PM
Well, I didn't think there were any patient people here. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

ihardlyknowher
03-15-2005, 03:52 PM
It is a suckout. Sorry.

On the flop, the call is bad, didn't stop to think that one or both of my overs were not live.

The turn is closer. I am pretty sure Villain 2 has a made str8, but got over excited about the deceptiveness of catching a Q (I am used to NL). But, here is the best case EV for calling (assuming Villain1 calls, there is no flush draw, and I get 2BB of implied odds on the river):

(3/45)(9.25BB/2) + (4/45)*(11.25BB) - 2BB = -0.69BB

Thigh
03-15-2005, 03:56 PM
Didn't know you were an NL player. Must have missed that. Yea, when I watch a NL game, this is something I see a lot. You guys are overly aggressive, maybe not considered that in an NL game, but would be in a limit game.

But, I would assume that in NL games this could still be considered a suckout.

riffraff
03-15-2005, 03:58 PM
I hope I didn't sound too harsh.. I was just giving honest critique. I shouldn't use that word tho. Think about your odds if the "rocky" pre-flop raiser has AA/KK/QQ/JJ? AK? AQ? KQd? (obviously didn't have KQd since he folded the turn raise)

Thigh
03-15-2005, 03:58 PM
Oh, and, hey, at least YOU sucked out on someone instead of someone sucking out on you. It's good to get them back every once in a while. But your bankroll could suffer in the long run.

As long as who you sucked out on wasn't another 2+2'er.

ihardlyknowher
03-15-2005, 03:59 PM
If the stacks are deep enough and the Villain won't let go of his lower str8, implied odds can be huge. It is really opponent dependent.

ihardlyknowher
03-15-2005, 04:00 PM
[ QUOTE ]
As long as who you sucked out on wasn't another 2+2'er.

[/ QUOTE ]

He had J8o, so I really doubt it. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Thigh
03-15-2005, 04:04 PM
I don't know, whoever had J8o, was playing against a 2+2'er who was calling bets with a lot less on the flop. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Okay, okay. Just kidding, having some fun.

Nick Royale
03-15-2005, 04:22 PM
I would fold preflop, flop and maybe also the turn. With 2 to a flush on the board and 4 of your 8 outs putting a 4 straight on the board I would discount your outs to 7. That means you'll have to make 3BB after the turn call the times you hit (assuming you'll never get 3-betted). A pretty slim call.