Bad luck or do I just suck?

[Beck]

I'm a limit player converting to NL SNG ($11)for a change of scenery (although played a bunch previously with success).

I've started recording my results in Aleo's spreadsheet, and things started of great (80 tournaments) with ROI 40%, which I knew wouldn't last. But at least I felt I was a better player than the competition, easily identifying a lot of the mistakes they make (to many hands early on, all-in with nothing etc).

However........ Over the last 60 I've lost 30 buy-ins. Several times I've been all-in preflop with AA/KK/QQ only to lose to lower pairs who spike their set. OK, that's what happens. Again and again and again.....

But my real problem is, that I have no real problem getting to the last five. But I've been busted on the bubble over and over again lately.
Given equal stack sizes, there's no one specific to prey on. Should I still push with PP/Big cards to steal blinds or a coinflip if called?? At least, that's what I've been doing.
But whenever I push with PP, they hit the board with their overcards.
If I push with AK and they call with a PP, then either I don't hit or they make a set or a freakin runner runner flush (happened the last 3 times, I hit the board with my AK). Am I playing AK to hard? Should I just make a raise, hoping to steal the blinds, or at least see the flop before going all in? What if they re-raise me all-in? Then I guess I have to call.

I know I'm not a world class player, but I definately do beleive (mistakenly perhaps) that I am a way better player than the average $11 Party player. I'm also fully aware that I'm getting hit pretty hard by variance.

I know my sample size is extremly small, and therefore insignificant, but I'm getting worried, that my bubble strategy is all wrong. If my strátegy is wrong then please enlighten me. If it's just bad luck, then so be it.

[lorinda]

From what I can work out, you're about even over 140 tourneys.

Sadly, the best answer is to play another 140 and see where you are, although a 30 buyin drop in the $11 is certainly a little alarming.

I'm calling Lorinda's Paradox on this one I'm afraid.

Lori

[raptor517]

well, my advice to you is a lot like lorindas. keep playing. you have to play a WHOLE lot before you can find out where you are at. you may be experiencing a bad run early in your sng career, and that is certainly no fun. it seems like for a time every coinflip you enter into you will lose, without a doubt, and it can go on for seemingly forever. just keep it up, keep posting, reading, etc, you'll get there. holla

[Paul2432]

I agree with the others that it takes a lot tournaments to determine if you are truly a winning player from the results of those tournaments.

However, there is another, far faster way to determine if you are a winning player. That is by evaluating the quality of your play directly. This is hard to do as a self-evaluation, but if you read here a lot and see where you disagree with other posters, that will give you a good idea. Of course, you need to have an open mind, and be willing to accept that a play you view as standard may be dead wrong.

Also, post some hands and see what others think.

Paul

[Beck]

Yeah, I know that 140 tourneys is nothing, and a whole lot have to be played (typing this while just lost another 2 coinflips and on a 3rd table somebody beating my AK on a K high flop, all-in on flop, and hitting his 3-outer.....)

But am I risking to much by pushing with the PP on the bubble? When I started of playing SNG's about a year ago I just focused on getting in the money. Once there, I could concentrate on winning. And that strategy seemed to pay of much better. Or does that just mean that perhaps I'm not sufficienly survival-oriented anymore, taking the play-to-win philosophy too far?

[1C5]

I know what you are saying. I just started playing $11s in December. Played only 300 so far. First 200 had ROI of 45%!! Eveything was going my way. This last 100 reality hit and I lost EVERY coinflip and many races when I was ahead. I think I am getting better yet the results are worse but I am just chugging away and trying to improve everyday.

As for your bubble question. Often you will have less than 10X the BB when there is 5 left. If this is the case you should be in all in or fold mode (unless you want to slowplay AA or KK or something sometimes). If the blinds are high and I get a small PP, I may fold depending on my chip count etc whereas if I am in the SB and it has been folded to me, I will often push with it. So to answer, it depends.

One thing I have learnt about the $11s though is that people will often call with anything so you will see a lot of coinflips when you push with small PPs or 2 high cards. This means that variance can be higher and obviously if we lose most every coinflip, we won't be making any money. But it has to get better, you can't lose every coinflip forever. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[poboys]

A few things. As a limit player, one advantage that you should have is hand selection. Most 10+1's do not understand the difference between AT and AQ. One disadvantage is that agression, a key concept on the bubble, is more a NL skill than a limit one. However, when you balance the two, you will become a profitable low-limit SnG player.

My suggestion is to spend lots of time SEARCHing this forum. The question you asked, while a good one, has been asked over and over. So, go find your answers using Search.

Second, post replies to or ask further questions about other people's posts. This is a great way to objectively think of some of the problems in SnG play (read: you didn't get sucked out on THEIR hands, so you can think more clearly). Invariably, someone will tell you you're crazy, "incorrect," -EV, etc. Try to figure out why (they may be wrong), or ask why and you'll learn much more than posting your own HH or asking general questions about how to become better.

Good luck!

[Beck]

[ QUOTE ]
As a limit player, one advantage that you should have is hand selection. Most 10+1's do not understand the difference between AT and AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, this may sometimes punish me, in the sense, that I too often value a hand whether it's +cEV and not necessarily $EV. In limit ring you gain from pushing every little edge, but because of payout structure in a SNG you sometimes need a bigger edge. That much I know, at least /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Scuba Chuck]

Hard to tell from the lack of info, but just some thought provoking questions:

How often are you pushing, when it's 6 handed?
How often are you pushing, when it's 5 handed?
How often are you pushing, when it's 4 handed?
Do you push when you don't really need the chips, with mediocre cards?
Do you push from out of position?
Do you push with position, with below average cards?

I continue to believe (prove me wrong), but the most common way to increase your ITM % on the $10+1s, is to let them knock each other out. They will do this, I promise.

[Beck]

[ QUOTE ]

How often are you pushing, when it's 6 handed?

[/ QUOTE ]
Probably too much.
[ QUOTE ]

How often are you pushing, when it's 5 handed?

[/ QUOTE ]
Probably too much.....
[ QUOTE ]

How often are you pushing, when it's 4 handed?

[/ QUOTE ]
Probably too much or at least:
[ QUOTE ]
Do you push when you don't really need the chips, with mediocre cards?

[/ QUOTE ]Yes, probably....
[ QUOTE ]
Do you push from out of position?

[/ QUOTE ]WAY too much...
[ QUOTE ]
Do you push with position, with below average cards?

[/ QUOTE ]And again, we got a winner.

Yup, I suck /images/graemlins/smile.gif