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View Full Version : Varying your play to luck. Sound strategy or seeing ghosts?


royaltrux
03-15-2005, 02:15 PM
Zen and the Art of Poker by Larry W. Phillips is a very useful book to help you stay in the zone (zen-like state) while facing the many trials of playing poker. I think it is a must read for everyone who wants to look at how they emotionally play the game.

Anyway in Chapter II, Sub-Chapter 11 entitled "The Wall of Cards: Cyclical Luck" it talks about the ebb and flow of luck during play. How when cards run cold for one they streak for another. He talks a lot about feeling the flow of the game, your place in it and playing accordingly.

Here is where we get into murky water. He is basically talking about switching gears but he says,

"Mathematicians tell us that each hand takes place independently of all others. This is good advice to ignore. If things are going badly, back off. You may be playing in a game closer to your bankroll than your opponents are (or the experts), and thus cannont afford to test out the theory. Don't go home from a cardroom with a horrendous loss just because you read somewhere that mathematically "every hand is independent of every other," so you just kept betting away, despite the fact that you were losing every hand, one after the other. For your purposes the hands weren't operating independently of each other.

Longtime, experienced card players believe in the bunching of luck. They have seen it. They have felt it. They know it is not a pipe dream of a mirage. Ignore this phenomenon at your peril. Even the mathematicians admit that it can happen, will happen, does happen, and has happened--they just dispute it when it is happening."

He's basically saying that if you're getting the worst of it, even if you are on a streak of cards, you shouldn't play what is considered optimal (betting and raising) by our beloved SSH standards. I know that it is wise to stay when you have the best of it and leave a game when you are getting the worst of it, but is this what D&M&Co are saying in their various writings. It seems like he is basically throwing all math out the window and relying on paranormal circumstances. I have seen and felt this happen at times and I tell my self that the math will work out in the long run ( and it does).

But I was wondering what everyone thought about the short-term and how valid is this argument. And if this is what D&M&Co meant by "the worst of it" then this post is sorta usless. But it might for a good discussion that involves poker.

riffraff
03-15-2005, 02:41 PM
I like this book as a whole, although this is by far the worst kind of information in it and IMHO should be completely ignored. We learn from Sklansky that each hand is independant of the previous and that Luck is not something that can be predicted. These pages of an otherwise good book should be torn out and burned.

Harv72b
03-15-2005, 02:44 PM
This is exactly the kind of advice that I'd hope my opponents are listening to.

We've all had our good runs before, where we were getting AT or better every hand, hitting every flop, and having a couple of opponents make good second-best hands to boot. And yeah, that can build off itself...when you're running well, you play with more confidence, which in turn increases your chances of winning (assuming that you play more aggressively when you're confident). When you're running poorly, a lot of players go to a more timid style (exactly what Phillips is suggesting!), which in turn increases their chances of losing--the guy betting into you heads up with 44 on an A-high board while you timidly call down with your A8s doesn't know that he's behind, and therefore doesn't know that he should fold before he catches his 2-outer on the river. The flop that gets checked through because you opted not to bet your second pair hand near the end of the order may bring a turn which creates a better hand (or a strong draw) for a player who would have folded for a flop bet. The guy to your right who raises with a draw and forces you to fold the best hand (because the forces of luck are stacked against you, don't you know?) isn't going to thank the Sweet Mother Fortune when his A-high missed flush draw beats the original bettor's Q-high missed flush draw--he's going to smugly rake the pot & know that he won because he made a good flop play, and someone else (you) made a bad one.

If you're playing in a game too close to your bankroll, you shouldn't be leaving the card room because you're running cold--you should be leaving the card room because you can't afford to play that game.

Luck has a definite short-term effect on the game. Nobody would dispute that. But adjusting your style of play because you've been unlucky will have a bigger short-term effect on your game, and will have a long-term effect on your game if you continually do so.

revots33
03-15-2005, 02:53 PM
I also like the book but dislike this advice. It's just superstition.

That being said, I think it can be a good idea to call it quits when running bad... because sometimes I end up tilting (even if I can't admit to myself that I am). In this way, bad luck CAN lead to more bad luck (even though it's actually bad play on my part).

In a way it's not much different than the advice to quit if you're down 30BBs or whatever. Sometimes our play deteriorates after a run of bad beats, even if we don't immediately realize it. Or sometimes the other players at the table are better than us, and we're not giving them credit.

BonJoviJones
03-15-2005, 08:37 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Don't go home from a cardroom with a horrendous loss just because you read somewhere that mathematically "every hand is independent of every other,"

[/ QUOTE ]

This is good advice.

[ QUOTE ]
Longtime, experienced card players believe in the bunching of luck. They have seen it. They have felt it. They know it is not a pipe dream of a mirage. Ignore this phenomenon at your peril. Even the mathematicians admit that it can happen, will happen, does happen, and has happened--they just dispute it when it is happening."

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the stupidest thing I've ever read.

Zen is overall a very good book. Luckily it's errors tend to be glaringly obvious, so if you're on the ball it shouldn't affect you much.

tek
03-15-2005, 08:40 PM
Remember, if you are on a rush others may back off out of fear. If you are running bad, they will attack. In either case the amplitude of the highs and lows will be artificially increased. One may view this as being lucky or unlucky in addition to what the cards may look like.

bernie
03-16-2005, 05:05 AM
[ QUOTE ]
You may be playing in a game closer to your bankroll than your opponents are (or the experts), and thus cannont afford to test out the theory.

[/ QUOTE ]

Most key part of the whole excerpt. Bankroll!

Given his analysis, casinos should shutdown because some idiot is on a roll on the crap table.

You can't judge a run until it's over.

[ QUOTE ]
"Mathematicians tell us that each hand takes place independently of all others. This is good advice to ignore.

[/ QUOTE ]

If your in this frame of mind during a session, quit. You are now letting prior hands, and likely monetary issues cloud your thinking and control your play.

Take a walk and clear your head. You're not in the right frame of mind to play.

b