I found two lines I like for week 5

[TAFKAn]

San Diego +5 at Denver
I immediately fell in love with this line when it came out a couple hours ago. How this can be more than a field goal is beyond me. San Diego defense showed what they were made of when they stopped one of the highest scoring offenses in the league. The Pats were SHUT OUT in the second half. I believe Denver's defense and special teams cannot possible play worse than they did on Monday. They will bounce back and play tough. That leads me to believe this will be a tight game, low -scoring, and come down to a field goal at the end. 5 pts is too much.

KC -3 at Jets
All I have to say is "Thank you god for this wonderful gift".

KC may have a leaky defense but everybody's defense has had a great day vs. the Jets. But the REAL issue in this game is whether or not the Jets can keep KC under 50 pts. They can't. Take KC and run, don't walk, to the bank.

I love both these lines and will almost certainly take some action by sunday.

TKFAN, this scares me. I was planning on playing the other sides in both of these games, but after your great picks last week I'm nervous.

You're right, Denver can't look as bad as they did Monday, which means they'll play better. Both teams you like are going from from home to road games, and you're going against teams going from the road to home. Denver should play better, and San Diego is good, but not as good as it appears.

Kansas City is a very mediocre team. There isn't as big of a gap between them and the Jets as it appears. Herm Edwards should have them motivated, as this really is a must win for them.

I'd like to hear what others think. Good Luck!

[TAFKAn]

My picks are hardly my doing. I do the research, I read the analysis of better football minds than my own, and I bounce my takes off the forum here. This forum has the benefit of some GREAT handicappers and their input almost always points me in the right direction.

I have not bet these two lines yet, I was just posting my first impressions. But I'm even more convinced today that the lines are good.

San Diego +5:

For one, any divisional game giving up 5 is a lot. Between two teams that are a combined 7-1, I think 5 is too much to give. San Diego showed that their defense is for real last week. I believe they will give the less-than-stellar Denver offense some trouble. Denver has not been the usual offensive powerhouse. They put up the FEWEST pts vs. Buffalo so far. However, I do believe that the Denver defense will come back strong after a miserable failure in Baltimore. Their defense is good and full of fast, hard-hitters. It will be a tough game fought in the trenches and I think it will come down to a field goal. 5 pts is a lot to give in a game like that. Unless Denver scores a TD on the last drive, I think San Diego covers. Denver's strong start is looking a lot less impressive after the Rams have turned out to be so bad and the 9ers have shown a lot of offensive problems. These teams are evenly matched right now in my opinion.

Also, don't forget that Schottenheimer is VERY familiar with Denver. He will call a good game vs. his old opponent Shanahan.

KC -3 at NY Jets:

I think you're right, KC is a mediocre team. They are a team with an awesome offense and a bad defense. However, the Jets are NOT a mediocre team. They are a very bad football team right now and the lines are way inflated by bettors who can't shake the memory of last year's 10-6 team. In the NFL, any team can go from the cellar to the superbowl these days. And vice versa. The Jets suck now, period. I'm going to bet against the Jets until they actually win a game. I think they are looking at a 3 or 4 win season.

The wild card in the KC game is Pennington actually. Will he step up and lead his team to score? Hard to tell. But so far, every week the Jets have shown me that they suck. They can't move the ball, they can't stop the ball. What more do you need to know? Last week vs. Jax was their BEST rushing game with 70 yards on the ground, getting 44 yards from C. Martin.

They'll probably post their highest numbers yet vs. KC but that really shouldn't matter. KC offense is looking like the '99 Rams. The Jets defense has been horrible all year and now they face the highest scoring team in the league?!?!?! The only way they win is if their offense wakes up in a big big way, and I don't see that happening.

As always, all comments and feedback and criticism are appreciated.

[Wildbill]

Matchups favor Denver, but the line is high. Broncos aren't going to let the Chargers run on them and its risky to expect Brees to win the game. The points are the big equalizer, but Denver at home has been a team over the last few years to come out firing in the first half and build a big lead. If they get a big lead the Chargers are finished and the line won't matter. The Chargers are not going to come back on anyone good with this offense as it is now, it is purely a offense built to stay close or protect a lead. If its forced to open up and stop using Tomlinson it will be mistake prone and ineffective.

I don't think the Chiefs are a bargain, but I am certainly not putting any money on the Jets right now. Chiefs have been a poor road team for awhile, laying points with them is too risky for my tastes.

I agree with you on the KC jets game. I expect the jets to put up some points but probably lose by double digits. There offense is very bad, although i think pennington will give them a little pop. He looked pretty good in the pre season. the problem for the jets is i think that they have to put up 40 points to win this game, that is probably out of reach even against kc's poor defense. Btw i don't know the over under off hand right now but i would definatly take the over if the line is anywhere around 52 or below. I have had the over in Kc's games the last two weeks and they have payed off nicely

Good luck

Dave G