All-in here or wait for the short stack?

[dfscott]

Button had been very aggressive, stealing blinds back from the brink several times. Big stack was calling instead of raising and letting people see lots of cheap flops and checking when he missed.

Although it looked like button was about to go, I felt like this hand was too good to pass up, especially since I had no confidence that button was going anywhere. I'm trying not to be results-oriented (I ran into AA in the BB) and figure out whether this is the wrong place to be aggressive or not.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney ($10+$1), Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t350)
Hero (t1200)
BB (t1520)
UTG (t4930)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif.

[curtains]

Allin baby...

[curtains]

btw I don't think it's close either.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
btw I don't think it's close either.

[/ QUOTE ]

I assume you can say this due to the fact you can count the range of calling hands here on one hand? Is that why you don't think it's close?

I haven't done the math, but thinking about the range of calling hands here it would seem very narrow, thus the probability of calling subsequently very low. Leading to a very high steal probability.

Are these your intuitive thoughts Curtains?

If so, Dfscott, you should do a prize strucutre analysis, it will help you for future questions.

[curtains]

I don't know, my hand is too good, he will fold most of the time. etc etc. It's a huge swing to have 1600 instead of 1000.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
If so, Dfscott, you should do a prize strucutre analysis, it will help you for future questions.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you talking ICM? Yeah, I haven't run the numbers yet - I'm too sleepy... Maybe tomorrow...

[curtains]

ICM won't help you here. Pushing is too clear cut.

[Apathy]

Two things to note here: one..this is a push

And two: utg should have pushed any two here but did not cause he's terrible.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
ICM won't help you here. Pushing is too clear cut.


[/ QUOTE ]

That statement is bulls..t. Prize Structure analysis (ICM) will make this a clearcut push, but it's good for OP to do the math, to see how clearcut it is. I'm disappointed in your attitude about permitting OP to avoid doing the homework.

Scuba

PS, it's late in NY, what the hell you doing up this late Curtains?

[curtains]

Yeah UTG has a perfect allin situation.

[Scuba Chuck]

Just some thoughts to give you an idea of how narrow a calling situation this is.

I would think that there are only 5 hands he would call with here. JJ+, and AK.

There are 169 hand combinations. 13 of those are pairs. There are only 6 ways to make pairs. there are 16 ways to make any other two card combo. That means there's a total of 78 (13x6) + 2496 (156x16) = 2574 hand combinations. So, 24 for the 4 pairs, and 16 for the AK, leaves a total of 40 total hand possibilities. 40/2496 = 1.6% probability that BB will have these hands.

If you've done any $EV analysis before, I assume you can see how good a steal situation this is.

Note: Blast away if my math is off. I'm tired, but I'm pretty sure I did that correctly.

[curtains]

I beleive these calling standards are WAY too tight. BB should call with a LOT more. Even if BB loses, the shortstack will be forced allin first.

[curtains]

If BB is really folding that many hands its a brainless allin from the SB. Even with BB calling a lot more hands , its still a clear allin. Your hand is just too strong.

[raptor517]

curtains is right, this is an easy push. holla

[Benholio]

[ QUOTE ]
Just some thoughts to give you an idea of how narrow a calling situation this is.

I would think that there are only 5 hands he would call with here. JJ+, and AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Woah woah hold on a minute. Did the OP say somewhere that BB was a 2+2'er or something? You can't go giving random players credit for playing properly.

I think a random player in the BB here will call with a MUCH larger range of hands. Afterall, he can still outlast the shortstack if he calls and loses anyway. Hero is the one facing elimination here.

I would probably push this hand too, but I think it is a lot closer than you guys are making it out to be. I'm sure an ICM analysis will come out smelling like roses, but it won't be taking into account that Button is all-in blind on the next hand.

[1C5]

I agree. In the 11s, in this situation I have been called by all pairs (including 22) and any 2 face cards is often an autocall for people at the $11 level for some reason.

[davehwm]

Yeah, be careful guys. I know you are probably a long time removed from the $11s, but the range of calling hands here is much larger than you think. I've really been trying some of the bubble concepts I see here by putting people on a range of calling hands before pushing. I more often than not find myself scratching my head at the absolute crap these people will call with.

[dfscott]

Ok, let's see if I can do this right...

I widened the gap of calling hands a bit to AT+, 88+, which BB will only have 6.8% of the time. Although the 11s are a little crazy, BB seemed to be pretty straightforward, so I think this is a reasonable assumption.

Running the numbers on this, I get an EV of .2188 if I just fold. If I push and BB folds (which should happen 93.2% of the time), results in .3262, while if I get called, it's a measly .0081 (since I'm only good about 28% of the time against that range of calling hands). However, adding those two together provides a hefty .3262, making this an obvious push (from an ICM perspective). Converted to $$, it comes out:

I fold: $17.50
I push: $26.50

[1C5]

Can you tell me what I need to do those calculations and how to do them? I would like to learn but have never done them before.

[Voltron87]

Push. Easily.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
Can you tell me what I need to do those calculations and how to do them? I would like to learn but have never done them before.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right here (http://www.bol.ucla.edu/~sharnett/ICM/ICM.html). There's a "how to use this thing" link at the bottom that explains it.

[1C5]

thanks

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, let's see if I can do this right...

I widened the gap of calling hands a bit to AT+, 88+, which BB will only have 6.8% of the time. Although the 11s are a little crazy, BB seemed to be pretty straightforward, so I think this is a reasonable assumption.

Running the numbers on this, I get an EV of .2188 if I just fold. If I push and BB folds (which should happen 93.2% of the time), results in .3262, while if I get called, it's a measly .0081 (since I'm only good about 28% of the time against that range of calling hands). However, adding those two together provides a hefty .3262, making this an obvious push (from an ICM perspective). Converted to $$, it comes out:

I fold: $17.50
I push: $26.50

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sorry but I feel like your EV calculations if you push and get called are off by quite a bit. Probably you just added an extra zero.

[colehard]

Am i being dim or isn't BB getting 2:1 on his call? Lately I have had a real problem stealing as I am being called correctly by a large range of hands. Under these circumstances, the BB should pretty much call with anything except an Ace unless they can't put you on a steal. Blind defense seems to be increasingly understood - at least where I am playing

[curtains]

The point is that the BB wil be scared to call because someone is about to be eliminated in 4th place.

[Scuba Chuck]

Citanul, you're always saying to always be aware of pot odds. What do you think of colehards comments?


[ QUOTE ]
Am i being dim or isn't BB getting 2:1 on his call? Lately I have had a real problem stealing as I am being called correctly by a large range of hands. Under these circumstances, the BB should pretty much call with anything except an Ace unless they can't put you on a steal. Blind defense seems to be increasingly understood - at least where I am playing

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm more interested in how you'd play this hand, not how villain should.

[Scuba Chuck]

Just some interesting math, based on colehard's comments

Fold = 23.11% of the Equity prize pool

Assume x = probability of losing this hand

Call = x(.1189) + (1-x)(.3582)
So breakeven is:

.2311 = x(.1189) + (1-x)(.3582)
.2393x = .1271
x = .53

Thus if you think your win probability is 47% or greater, you should always be calling with this hand.

Is this an edge I should be considering here - from villain's point of view?

This is a very wide range of hands, IMO. In fact, Dave's calling assumptions are probably dead on. You could probably include a few more broadway hands.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ok, let's see if I can do this right...

I widened the gap of calling hands a bit to AT+, 88+, which BB will only have 6.8% of the time. Although the 11s are a little crazy, BB seemed to be pretty straightforward, so I think this is a reasonable assumption.

Running the numbers on this, I get an EV of .2188 if I just fold. If I push and BB folds (which should happen 93.2% of the time), results in .3262, while if I get called, it's a measly .0081 (since I'm only good about 28% of the time against that range of calling hands). However, adding those two together provides a hefty .3262, making this an obvious push (from an ICM perspective). Converted to $$, it comes out:

I fold: $17.50
I push: $26.50

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sorry but I feel like your EV calculations if you push and get called are off by quite a bit. Probably you just added an extra zero.

[/ QUOTE ]

I did find an error, but I don't think I'm off by that much. I may not be understanding the process correctly, so let's walk through it and maybe you can point out where I'm messing up:

First, there's only a 6.8% chance that BB got the hand (AT+, 88+) to call me with (I pulled that from PokerCalc). Once he gets it, I now only have a 27.9% chance of beating him (again, from PokerCalc).

So, the probability that I push, he calls, and I win is:

.068 * .279 = .0190, or a 1.90% chance.

If it happens, I'll have 2400 chips, BB will have 320, and the other two stacks will be unchanged at 4930 and 350. Running this through the ICM calculator results in a value of .3357 (this was my mistake -- last time I had something closer to .42).

So, my EV for this situation is .3357 * .0190 = .0064 (with the error, it came out to .0081)

From your post, however, it sounds like you were looking for an answer along the lines of an order of magnitude bigger. What did I miss?

[Pokerscott]

Only time I wouldn't push is if this were a step 3 tournament.

Pokerscott

[Scuba Chuck]

Here's your calculation

a = probability of getting called = .068

x = push, steal blinds
y = push, called and lose
z = push, called and win

Push = (1-a)x + a(.721)y + a(.279)z
push = (.932)(.2745) + (.068)(.721)(ZERO) + (.068)(.279)(.3357)
Push = .2558 + 0 + .0063
Push = .2622

Your original numbers look fine.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
Here's your calculation

a = probability of getting called = .068

x = push, steal blinds
y = push, called and lose
z = push, called and win

Push = (1-a)x + a(.721)y + a(.279)z
push = (.932)(.2745) + (.068)(.721)(ZERO) + (.068)(.279)(.3357)
Push = .2558 + 0 + .0063
Push = .2622

Your original numbers look fine.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ahh, I did find one other mistake -- I had the ICM value of "Push and everyone folds" too high.

Still a clear push however you look at it.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Still a clear push however you look at it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Scary thought, but if you review my previous post on the math regarding villain's calling standards, this has a much higher showdown potential then I realized. You need a very strong hand here to push, IMO. A9 is strong enough.

But on the $10+1s, I doubt (maybe hope) that the fish there will risk their stack knowing that Mr Hangeronner guy is about on his way out.

Turned out to be a more interesting hand than I realized at first.