Worth taking chances early?

[dfscott]

I'm having a hard time deciding how to play early hands. I use the standard strategy of only playing premium hands and pairs early, but I'm never 100% sure how far to take them.

For example, here are two hands that I played completely differently, and I'm not sure if either was correct (in a $EV sense):

AKs Hand:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t790)
Button (t715)
SB (t555)
BB (t1215)
UTG (t550)
UTG+1 (t1090)
MP1 (t2310)
MP2 (t775)

UTG+1 is very loose -- has played about half of his hands. SB is slightly loose, playing about 25%.

Preflop: Hero is CO with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises to t60</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t200</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t555 (All-in)</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls t495, <font color="#CC3333">Hero re-raises to t790 (All-in)</font>, UTG+1 calls t235.

If I don't fold here, is pushing correct or should I save my last 300 and bail on a bad flop?

88 hand:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t785)
BB (t990)
Hero (t800)
UTG+1 (t740)
UTG+2 (t770)
MP1 (t990)
MP2 (t745)
MP3 (t755)
CO (t665)
Button (t760)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
Hero calls t15, UTG+1 calls t15, UTG+2 calls t15, MP1 calls t15, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls t15, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t105) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets t50</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t150</font>, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls t150, CO folds, SB folds, BB calls t100.

Turn: (t555) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t225</font>, MP1 calls t225, BB calls t225.

River: (t1230) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t410 (All-in)</font> , MP1 calls t410, BB calls t410.

Final Pot: t2460

FWIW, I think I probably should've just gone all-in on the turn since I had two opponents to cut down on the drawing odds.

[Mr_J]

AKs I call preflop.

88 I'd probally play in a similiar way depending on other players, but I'm no postflop genius.

[pokerlaw]

IMO, i would play them the following:

1st scenerio: The AK raise is just a tad higher than I would make it, but well within acceptable range (i would do 140-170). I would muck w the SB's all in though, unless you also have a read he is loose. With the min raise and then your RR, his move is saying at least 10s and maybe AA or KK, its too early, at least for me. Though losing 200 chips on a Party sucks ass.

2nd scenerio: I would also push on the turn, or at least raise more, to chase out any flush draws, or at least make them pay if/when they call, especially w two players against you.
However, another option that I use occsionally/rarely is to slowplay the set, call the low bets until the river hits and see if a flush drops. If it doesn't, value bet at the end.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
I would muck w the SB's all in though, unless you also have a read he is loose.

[/ QUOTE ]

Looser than the 25% VP$IP I had him on?

[Scuba Chuck]

Hand 1:
General thoughts and questions: Is your basic preflop strategy to get all your chips in the middle with AKs? If so, well played. Furthermore, once you've committed the 200 chips to the middle, I agree that you should just push the rest.

For my personal play, AKs is not an allin hand for me on levels 1-3.

FWIW, I think you are betting here to gather information. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me to raise to 200 here. 140+ also seems like quite a bit. I think it might make sense to make a bet/call that you can get away from if someone reraises/pushes over you. What does a raise over you mean? Well it means a few potential things.

1) One you're dominated by hands like AA or KK
2) It's the wrong side of a coinflip with pairs QQ down.
3) Party Poker fish thinking that AK or AQ is a powerful hand.

I play the $33s. I never see AQ do this. I would say less than 10% of the time I see AK do this. (I'm always surprised when I see it though). So in essence, most of the time it's likely 1 or 2. So you're either dominated or the wrong side of a coinflip.

I don't play those odds.

In fact, David, you should plug the potential other hands into poker stove and see how your hand rates.

Hand 2:
Bet the pot (or push) on the turn. There's plenty of chips right there for you to take, and be happy.

[Slim Pickens]

I like the way you played them both.

AKs hand: I've gotten into it in a couple other threads with people who don't like playing AKs like the nuts preflop, which I can totally understand at higher buy-ins. The thing about AKs with two callers is that you are most often on the happy side of any overlay. What two hands are going to be calling an all-in reraise in the 10's? I'm going to say mostly low/mid pockets and worse aces. If you hit you triple, not double up. One of the three of you is drawing almost dead and 19 out of 20 times it's not you. UTG+1 has shown us nothing but a minraise so far so I'd not hesitate to put him on KQ, AJ, or worse. I think you want in on a side pot with UTG+1 more than you want to try to save the chips for later, so the push is good.

88 hand: Again, nice play. I hate with the white hot fire of a thousand suns slowplaying sets on boards with draws. I love it when people curse me out in the chat box for being a fish when I "draw out on them" against their flopped set of 4's or something. Look dude, if you'd given me the chance to fold I would have but I flopped 4 to the nut flush off the big blind and you checked behind me. What I am I supposed to do, fold my turn flush out of respect to what used to be a good hand you held? I think your turn bet was big enough, but just barely. You didn't give odds for a flush draw to call (although BB was close) and you got two callers. You probably could have made it 300, but the end result is the same. All your chips are going in unless you want to try to check this down (why?), so figure out how to get the most other chips in with them. FWIW I probably push the turn.

Slim

[Benholio]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would muck w the SB's all in though, unless you also have a read he is loose.

[/ QUOTE ]

Looser than the 25% VP$IP I had him on?

[/ QUOTE ]

<ul type="square"> 25% VP$IP isn't loose here
VP$IP doesn't help you determine a raiser's holdings
[/list]

Once the action gets back to you, you are putting ~600 chips in to win ~1750, so I don't think you can fold anymore.

Calling isn't really an option either, because you are definately getting all-in on any flop.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I've gotten into it in a couple other threads with people who don't like playing AKs like the nuts preflop, which I can totally understand at higher buy-ins.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is still an easy answer, seem my post above. Nothing like playing negative edges ...at any level. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[AA suited]

1) i would have just called the min raise on early blinds. i've lost tooooo many w/AK. if i dont catch a peice of the flop, the pot is small enuf to let it go.

what level are you playing? at 50+5, i would read utg+1 min raise then calling an all-in re-re-raise as QQ+ and fold. KK or AA = you're dominated. even if he has QQ, you're on the wrong side of the coin toss.

2) i would have just called on the flop. he's betting 1/2 pot so i'm putting him on a K and not a draw. i would hope he would bet into me on the turn so could raise. else bet if he checked.

hm.. or is reading 1/2pot bets as tp a leak? and i should read them as blocking bets for a draw nstead??? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[Phil Van Sexton]

1st hand
Once the SB pushes, I'm not happy, but I guess I'd have to call. You have him covered by only 245, so pushing pre-flop is pointless. The 245 is going in on any flop, but maybe I can get UTG+1 to fold if the flop misses him.

If I were playing the hand, I'd probably make a smaller re-raise pre-flop. I'd make it 100 to go. The loose raiser is going to call regardless, so there's no point in making an enormous raise. I don't mind calling, but I'd probably raise it in order to isolate against the loose player. 100 is plenty to do this.

2nd hand
Sometimes I play sets like this too, and I have no idea why. It's like eating 5 day old chinese food: it seems like a good idea at time, but you quickly regret it. Usually, you'll get away with it, but it's not a good feeling while you wait for the results.

Pushing the turn is correct, but it's very tempting to try to keep people in the pot or induce a raise. This is unnecessary. Push.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I've gotten into it in a couple other threads with people who don't like playing AKs like the nuts preflop, which I can totally understand at higher buy-ins.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is still an easy answer, seem my post above. Nothing like playing negative edges ...at any level. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll respond to both your and Slim's post, since my answers are related to both.

I play AKs as an all-in hand in the early levels, but to be frank, it's mainly because "Beating the Party 10+1" says to play it and go all-in.

Ok, here are the rest of my thoughts -- you can tell me where I'm off-base...

I generally overbet at the early levels at the 11s, especially in EP. A pre-flop raise of 3BB doesn't phase anyone, so I usually go with about 4-5. In this case, UTG's min-raise didn't scare me since I'd seen him min-raise with all kinds of crap, but it did beef up the pot, so I felt like my raise needed to be significant to get everyone out. So, I bet around 5BB + his raise.

When SB went all-in, I knew that Aleo's guide says not to call an all-in with AK, but I felt like SB was making a play. Even if he did have a big hand, I had him covered and felt like I might be able to beat UTG+1's likely crap hand and still be ok.

FWIW, they both had crap (A4s and A5s), but one hit their kicker on the turn and the other on the river and I got sent packing.

And I think that's the root of my question. Let's say we played the entire hand face up (or at least my opponents' hands). At these levels, is the advantage you get doubling (or tripling) up early with the risk of an early bust in a 60-40 situation? I actually did triple up in the 88 hand, but still ended up busting out on the bubble (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Number=1929032&amp;page=2&amp;view=colla psed&amp;sb=5&amp;o=14&amp;fpart=1). Maybe it's because I didn't play the big stack well or just got unlucky, but I think people might be putting too big of a value on an early big stack, since it's not so big later in the game.

[1C5]

I am still playing the $11s and in the early rounds, AK (soooted or not) is NOT an all in hand for me. I will usually raise 3-5X the BB depending on what level I get it on and then that is few enough chips that I can fold to an all in or big raise while still keeping most of my chips and if I miss the flop I can still get out of the hand with most of my stack in still with me.

But if I hit an A or K on the flop and someone gets 2 pair or 3 of a kind, there is a good chance I will lose all my chips.

[AA suited]

[ QUOTE ]
1st hand
Once the SB pushes, I'm not happy, but I guess I'd have to call. You have him covered by only 245, so pushing pre-flop is pointless. The 245 is going in on any flop, but maybe I can get UTG+1 to fold if the flop misses him.

If I were playing the hand, I'd probably make a smaller re-raise pre-flop. I'd make it 100 to go. The loose raiser is going to call regardless, so there's no point in making an enormous raise. I don't mind calling, but I'd probably raise it in order to isolate against the loose player. 100 is plenty to do this.

2nd hand
Sometimes I play sets like this too, and I have no idea why. It's like eating 5 day old chinese food: it seems like a good idea at time, but you quickly regret it. Usually, you'll get away with it, but it's not a good feeling while you wait for the results.

Pushing the turn is correct, but it's very tempting to try to keep people in the pot or induce a raise. This is unnecessary. Push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Phil,
for #2, are you saying you don't like the raise on the flop? what would you have done instead?

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
wait, for #2, you;re saying you don't like the raise on the flop? what would you have done instead?

[/ QUOTE ]

The flop was fine. I was talking about the turn.

[AA suited]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
wait, for #2, you;re saying you don't like the raise on the flop? what would you have done instead?

[/ QUOTE ]

The flop was fine. I was talking about the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

so my suggestion is -EV?
"2) i would have just called on the flop. he's betting 1/2 pot so i'm putting him on a K and not a draw. i would hope he would bet into me on the turn so could raise. else bet if he checked.

hm.. or is reading 1/2pot bets as tp a leak? and i should read them as blocking bets for a draw nstead??? "

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I play AKs as an all-in hand in the early levels, but to be frank, it's mainly because "Beating the Party 10+1" says to play it and go all-in.


[/ QUOTE ]

It's been a long while since I read the Aleo guide (3 months??). It seems to me that you're taking this advice a little out of context here. In fact, I believe it says that AK is an ok hand to go allin with, but not to call one with. IMO, an AK hand is a great hand, and it can be a troublesome hand. To make matters even more complicated, the fish on $10+1 make it even more difficult to put them on a hand.

In essence, the aleo guide says to play only 4 hands in the first 3 levels. Then steal blinds when you 'have' to in levels 4+. (This all assumes we're talking pre-bubble). Otherwise, you're waiting for all the fish to knock each other out. It is not your job to knock people out until you're ITM and perhaps on the bubble.

[ QUOTE ]
At these levels, is the advantage you get doubling (or tripling) up early with the risk of an early bust in a 60-40 situation? I actually did triple up in the 88 hand, but still ended up busting out on the bubble. Maybe it's because I didn't play the big stack well or just got unlucky, but I think people might be putting too big of a value on an early big stack, since it's not so big later in the game.



[/ QUOTE ]

Lots said here. You just correctly stated why it's not worth it to take a coinflip early in an SNG. It doesn't guarantee you any money. Conversely, if you took all of your coinflips on the bubble, 50% of the time you will make money. Hopefully that makes sense.

Poker rewards patience and selected aggression. I think the $10+1s are very much about patience. Be patient, survive until the bubble. Let the others knock each other out. Take coinflips when it's 4 handed or less (assuming you're not too short stacked). Don't panic.

Regarding big stack play. There are lots of opinions on this forum regarding this caliber of play - and the differences are skill dependent. If you triple up early, theoretically, I would think you could coast into the money, so keep that in mind. In levels 1-3, don't change your strategy too much. Your large stack doesn't scare fish, it attracts them like mosquitos to a zapper. They just get sucked in. Continue to play ABC poker, protect your chips. Use your large stack to wield power on level 5+. Save your chips to practice your skills in middle play. You don't need to open up your game before then.

There are lots of "bad" advice posts, IMO, on this forum about taking coinflips early. Be wary.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
"2) i would have just called on the flop. he's betting 1/2 pot so i'm putting him on a K and not a draw. i would hope he would bet into me on the turn so could raise. else bet if he checked.

hm.. or is reading 1/2pot bets as tp a leak? and i should read them as blocking bets for a draw nstead??? "

[/ QUOTE ]

There are 5 other people in the hand. 5! You must raise. It doesn't matter if he has TP or not. I actually would've raised to 200 on the flop, though 150 is fine.

Besides, the pot is small, so 1/2 pot is only 50. Any flush draw certainly has the implied odds to call 50.

If you call the 50, now the pot is 200. The people behind you have better pot odds. Pretty soon, flush draws DO have the pot odds to call. You must take this into account in multi-way pots. You can try to price draws out, but 1 or 2 callers can easily price them back in.

If he has TP, he made a stupid bet that doesn't get rid of the draws that you are worried about. You must correct this mistake. If he does have TP, he won't fold. If he is semi-bluffing a draw, your raise is charging him more to see the turn. This is also good.

If you were heads-up, calling would make more sense, but only because raising would often cause him to fold a mediocre hand. A 1/2 pot bet is actually a fairly weak bet, especially when its only 50. A 1/2 pot bet often means 2nd pair or less when heads up. Raising will just scare these hands off.

I'll usually make a 100% pot bet when the pot is less than or equal to 100. Otherwise, you are still giving correct implied odds to draws.

[1C5]

Worst story ever. This week I had an SnG where I got AA first hand, someone else had KK and another had a flush A high (I flopped a full house to triple up 1st hand!! Knocked 2 people out. And I didn't even get into the money. It was terrible. Had AA cracked soon after and had about the unluckiest bubble play to knock me out 5th or 4th. It was sad.

[Slim Pickens]

[ QUOTE ]
This is still an easy answer, seem my post above. Nothing like playing negative edges ...at any level.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey. No need to be a card snob. /images/graemlins/mad.gif AKs is a perfectly good hand against players who think A6s is a monster. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

I don't like being in an all in situation with this hand, but I think the first raise was appropriate, and the fact that there will be a decent-sized side pot makes the all-in work for me.

I'd like to point out that this is not a coin flip in the usual meaning of the term. It's a three-way pot, and with the range of hands I'd put the other two on, I'd say Hero makes it through this hand about 80% of the time: 40% with almost three times the chips, 40% with fewer (470 from winning the side pot) but still alive (which BTW is not that much less than if he folds to the all-in), and 20% where he's out. If I'm right that SB is on a middle pocket pair (I was wrong... it was worse) and UTG+1 is on two high cards (wrong again.... just one high card) then this is an easy push.

Slim

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd say Hero makes it through this hand about 80% of the time:

[/ QUOTE ]

hmmmm, I think this is optimistic thinking... intuitively, I understand your side pot comment, but (and this is very level dependent here) the gamble is that villain doesn't have a pair most of the time. I still view this as an overall negative edge. We'll have to just disagree. Perhaps the $10+1s have changed so much that it's that insane, but I really doubt it.

FWIW, if you believe you're opposition is really playing this way (overvaluing Ace-rag), then you're clearly in a dominant card position here. I reran pokerstove. AKs against any pair and any Ace gives you a 64% advantage. Personally I think this is a very dangerous assumption, and could create bad habits. But what do I know???

[ QUOTE ]
I'd like to point out that this is not a coin flip in the usual meaning of the term. It's a three-way pot,

[/ QUOTE ]

Generally speaking, 3 way pots are almost Never a coinflip for AKs. Consider your assumptions, AKs (hero), small pocket pair (SB), and two high cards (idiot). Hero has a 36% chance of winning. In fact, rarely does a nonpaired hand have a greater than 50% preflop probability of winning in a 3 way allin. The one exception - well the current example AKs vs. A5o vs. A4o is a great example. In this scenario, Hero is a 60% favorite. But hindsight is 20/20.

Slim, I think it's dubious of you to promote, condone this type of play. If it suits your style, so be it. But for me, IMHO, the math says this is a -$EV play.

Finally, we do agree on something. After hero committed so many chips to the pot (250), I do agree that he must push the remainder in after SB.

[Scuba Chuck]

David, FYI, I'm pretty sure if you change your location to SNG - $10+1s, you'll get the same message across...

[Slim Pickens]

[ QUOTE ]
But for me, IMHO, the math says this is a -$EV play.


[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, I agree that the end situation is -$EV. The thing is, I like the initial re-raise given all the factors leading up to it, and I like the all-in with the pots the way there were, so I'd say the play was correct. It's just one of those situations that turns out -$EV because of factors out of Hero's control. He has to make the best he can out of it, which I think he did. If he'd known in advance that SB was headed all-in and UTG+1 would call, I say fold AKs no matter what.

I think this just goes to show how hard it is to play AKs early. You can do everything exactly right and still easily end up somewhere you don't want to be, like a three-way all-in without a high pair.

How often does Hero win the main and side pots individually? If 64% is the overall advantage when taking into account all the chip stacks and side pots, I say take it.

Slim

[Scuba Chuck]

Slim, where I think this forum disagrees here is on the reraise to 200 chips. Frankly, a raise to 100 chips (few enough to get away from still), and a call by original villain should tell you all you need to know.

Obviously SB made this a little more interesting because he essentially decided to 'give up.' (Or seriously overvalues Ace-rag.) I think that perhaps the poor play on the $10+1s makes us consider our play more by results rather than solid play.

There's a fair argument here, Slim. That your play should adjust to the way your opponents will play, not the way they should.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
David, FYI, I'm pretty sure if you change your location to SNG - $10+1s, you'll get the same message across...

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep, I think I can change it now. I just kept getting replies that started, "I'm not sure if I'm smart enough to critique a Pooh-bah, but..."