American Idol ......Week 1....March 14th

[rusty JEDI]

Anwar up to 38 - 43.

I Have officially started shorting Anwar.

Last year i dont believe any single person was this high even when it got down to 5 left. And when it did Latoya and Fantasia kept flip flopping on value. When it gets down that low the values are going to become volatile at any sign of weakness. Anwar will show weakness.

That said I have not decided what point i will sell. I will likely hold until top 2 (If hell freezes over and he makes it that far). At that point he cant be valued double the other contestant and i may take only a small loss if i buy them back.


rJ

[astroglide]

the betting is crazy this year period, i wouldn't count on past trends to mean anything. i think comments like "if hell freezes over and he makes it that far" show way too much emotion in your betting. the fact is he's the favorite and right now the most likely to win the competition. saying he won't make the top ranks is just bonkers.

[rusty JEDI]

I think he is a lock for top 5. Most of my anwar comments are a little bit of a stab at him more than a total statement of fact.

Anwar
Bo
Carrie
Nadia
wildcard person out of nowhere.

From there I think its up in the air. Even at 25% chance of winning (just throwing that out) he is overpriced, hence the short.

rJ

[Bytestream]

[ QUOTE ]
the fact is he's the favorite and right now the most likely to win the competition

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a fact? Where exactly do you come across facts like these?

Simply browsing the AI message boards reveals that Anwar has relatively little popularity among the 300 votes a night teeny boppers.

This weeks TV Guide has an interview with Simon Cowell, in which he lists his picks for the Top 4 contests: Carrie, Bo,Jessica, Mario. Granted the interview is at least a week old, but you think one performance puts him at the top of the a list he wasnt previously on? And if so, then what will one bad performance down the line do?

[GrannyMae]

Last year i dont believe any single person was this high even when it got down to 5 left

when it was top 11, i loaded up on fantasia's at 38. next day she was 47.

when latoya was eliminated, she was in the 60's

[RollaJ]

[ QUOTE ]
Last year i dont believe any single person was this high even when it got down to 5 left

when it was top 11, i loaded up on fantasia's at 38. next day she was 47.

when latoya was eliminated, she was in the 60's

[/ QUOTE ]

There goes that theory /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[astroglide]

like 0.00009% of the idol watching/voting population posts on the official message boards. he's the favorite with all of the odds makers as well as the 'free markets' (e.g. tradesports) and also the 'most likely person to win' among basically everybody i know that watches the show (friends, coworkers, etc). the betting is the point though, not what the 13 year-olds have to say about it. if you go by their opinion, constantine has a chance of winning.