SOP?

[The Dude]

I'm somewhat curious what percentage of you think this hand was filled with no-brainer decisions.

stheif is on the button, The Dude occupies the CO, and Clarkmeister is in the hijack seat. BB in this hand is actually a decent player, but he's in a little over his head at this table. He probably does fine in most Vegas 20-40 games, but he's not hard to play against. He's been playing pretty straighforward poker up to this point.

Preflop:
2 limpers to The Dude who limps in the CO w/ 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif. SB folds, BB checks.

Flop: (4.5 SBs) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif 4/images/graemlins/club.gif 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(4 Players)</font>
Checked to The Dude who bets, BB raises. Both limpers fold, The Dude calls.

Turn: (4.25 SBs) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 Players)</font>
BB bets, The Dude calls.

River: (6.25 BBs) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 Players)</font>
The Dude's plan is to raise a bet, and bet if checked to.

[URMeowed]

[ QUOTE ]
He's been playing pretty straighforward poker up to this point.


[/ QUOTE ]

If he's playing straightforward, you can't really like the river bet. Is he capable of paying off a 6 when you raise him? Would he try to thin value bet a 6 in this spot? I like call if he bets and bet if he checks.

Meow.

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He's been playing pretty straighforward poker up to this point.


[/ QUOTE ]

If he's playing straightforward, you can't really like the river bet. Is he capable of paying off a 6 when you raise him? Would he try to thin value bet a 6 in this spot? I like call if he bets and bet if he checks.

Meow.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]


I agree with this.

[/ QUOTE ]

me too.

[TStoneMBD]

terrible river raise.

[TStoneMBD]

oh btw, pretty easy turn fold if you ask me.

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
oh btw, pretty easy turn fold if you ask me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? You don't give him much for his pair outs huh? And the extra bet or two he will get when he hits a straight or his pair is good.

[Michael Davis]

Raise the turn?

-Michael

[TStoneMBD]

i think youre really stretching your outs here. i think this is a pretty clear -EV play. under some situations you need to make calls like this for metagame, but this likely isnt one of them.

[theBruiser500]

I guess you call the turn getting 5:1 cause you think you have 10 outs not 4. 3.6:1 and also implied odds, he could have a 4 but it is just statistially more likely (how mch more likely is it mathetmatically?) that he just has a 6. If you have 4 outs that is 4/46, or 42:4, 10.5:1 which is not so good but more implied odds and les slikely to happen so it seems close but a call is okay.

THe 10.5:1 and 3.6:1 needs to be weighted with the odds of this guy having a 6 and him having a 4 then we can figure out mathetmatically if this turn call is right.

[antifish225]

Fold the turn as I am not sure exatcly what outs you are hoping to draw to.....

[mmcd]

I just wanted to chime in and say that folding the turn would be ridiculous.

[antifish225]

[ QUOTE ]
I just wanted to chime in and say that folding the turn would be ridiculous.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not sure I understand your thinking here.....what do you think the BB was cr'ing the flop with?....best case scenario you are drawing to a gut shot with a pair already on board...once the turn comes and your BD flush is not alive I do not see how you are getting even close to correct odds to call a gut shot heads up (even if you assume the 5 is a completly clean out....) jmho

[FrankTheTank]

SOP until the river, which I just call, as better hands wont fold (except for maybe a middle pocket pair), while a decent player can easily fold a 6 here.

[Paluka]

Well I ran this through the old pokerstove, and it looks like you have only 15% equity on the turn or so giving him basically any 6, any 4, and some pairs he wouldn't raise with preflop.

[jayheaps]

Flop: Take the free card. Overcards will still call. the board is coordinated for 7s and 8s might not be clean outs. you likely have only 4 clean outs.

Turn: Fold. Again only 4 outs, possible 3 now in this multiway hand.

River: What hand calls you that you beat? I would have to call but I would have been gonea long time ago

[theBruiser500]

[ QUOTE ]
I just wanted to chime in and say that folding the turn would be ridiculous.

[/ QUOTE ]

MMCD, how is folding the turn ridiculous based off of mine and Paluka's post? I'm not sure what pokerstove is, but it sounds like it is doing kind of what I did in my post. 15% equity getting 5.25:1 is not enough, that indicates a fold.

[droidboy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


I agree with this.

[/ QUOTE ]

me too.

[/ QUOTE ]

me three

- Andrew

[mmcd]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I just wanted to chime in and say that folding the turn would be ridiculous.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not sure I understand your thinking here.....what do you think the BB was cr'ing the flop with?....best case scenario you are drawing to a gut shot with a pair already on board...once the turn comes and your BD flush is not alive I do not see how you are getting even close to correct odds to call a gut shot heads up (even if you assume the 5 is a completly clean out....) jmho

[/ QUOTE ]

I put the big blind on approximately:

22 33 55 6x, maybe Ax, with a small chance of 77 88 99, and an even smaller chance of a 4 or 66. Why would he checkraise a button bet by a player that probably doesn't have much of a hand (or at least doesn't need to have much of one) and shut out the field with a big hand here. If he has a 4 or better, I think most players either lead out or check-call here. I also think he'd be more inclined to lead (with the intention of 3-betting) with any overpair rather than checkraise. Just going by the flop action, I think 22 or 33 are the most likely suspects here. BB checks to see what happens, he gets a bet from the button, now he can raise and confront the field the field with a double bet and get heads up with what is likely the best hand (and shut down immediately if cold-called).

Personally, I think raising the turn is a better line here, as I think it will get you the pot fairly often, and it enables you to more legitimately collect 3-big bets when he calls and you pair the river because if he calls the turn raise with his 6, he's committed to seeing a showdown and you can value bet your 7 or 8 with a clear connscience. I don't see any value whatsoever in the river raise other than not having to show your hand.


BTW, he doesn't have "a gutshot", he has 2 overcards and a gutshot.

[1800GAMBLER]

[ QUOTE ]
I just wanted to chime in and say that folding the turn would be ridiculous.

[/ QUOTE ]

[antifish225]

Still not getting your thoughts on this one - he has precisly 2 weak overcards, a gut shot, and a backdoor flush draw on the flop - on the turn his backdoor flush draw is gone and there is an over card on the board - even if you put his holding (on the turn) against a 'Random' Hand (which you can assume the blind has) he only has 25% equity in the pot....now assume that the BB has something even marginally better than a 'random hand' - as low as a pair of 2's (as this is one hand you could put him on in your analysis) you still only have 32% equity in pot (which seems wrong but I belive is right)- against A6 you have 22% equity.....with these numbers in mind.....how is a fold on the turn not the correct play....? Thoughts?

[mmbt0ne]

22% equity and 32% equity both sound good getting 5.25:1 on the turn.

His flop check-raise really looks like a 6 to me. Why would villian go killing his action that early in the hand with trip 4's and two limpers left to act?

[mmcd]

Folding is incorrect because calling is better and raising is even better still. He likely has 10 outs, and figures to pick-up at least 1 bet on the river when he hits.

He is getting better than 5-1.

Given bb's likely range of hands and the fact the he may be a little on the weak side, I think a turn raise will pick up the pot at least 30% of time here, quite possibly more than 50% depending on the bb.

Would you fold a 4-flush or an OESD here?

Folding 87 would be approximately equivalent.

[antifish225]

You make some valid points - well thought out - and I agree with your assesment that a raise is better than a call in this situation (as I believe applies to most situations like this) - however I would still be finding a fold on the turn...as on the turn I would have to be figuring that I was either quite behind or potentially drawing dead (and with an over card on the board I don't think I have any where close to 10 outs as your assesment implies - I see where you are getting this from but disagree that hitting a 7 or an 8 is a clean out - so if we say a 5 is clean (4 outs) and add another 2 for the 7 or 8 - we have 6 outs for 6.7 odds of winning - pot is paying 5-1 right now - so it is a close call assuming you get paid on the river - but I would still be finding a fold....) JMHO

[J.A.Sucker]

I don't know about SOP. I would consider playing it different on most streets. I would strongly consider raising preflop. In fact, I would just do it without considering it.

I would check behind on the flop here, too.

I would consider raising the turn, though calling or folding have merits.

I would call a river bet and bet if checked to.

[YoureToast]

[ QUOTE ]
He likely has 10 outs

[/ QUOTE ]

A straightforward player who checkraises the flop and you give hero credit for 10 outs. Highly risky IMHO.

2 clear mistakes in this hand.
1. Not reraising the flop (lets get some "real" information about this so-called straightforward player, ie. Does he cap? Does he bet out on turn?).
2. Calling the turn. (I would fold; a raise is a lot better than calling).

Other arguable mistakes.
1. Calling preflop (I call here but I don't like it too much).
2. Raising on the river. I'd call here and bet if checked to ala Sucker (only 1/2 of a mistake).

Other than that you played it well!

[The Dude]

I think you guys are vastly overrating the possibility that this specific player has trips, considering his flop check-raise. This player is smart enough to realize he wants people to stay in when he's got trips, and didn't seem to be tricky enough to check-raise in order to convice me he didn't have trips.

As it was, he checked to me on the river, confirming that he didn't have trips. I bet and he called, and my hand was good. I guess looking back you can say only call a river bet, but I was damn sure he didn't have anything better than 2 pair on the flop, and I was damn sure that if he were willing to bet 22 on the river he'd pay off the raise.

[Victor]

[ QUOTE ]
think you guys are vastly overrating the possibility that this specific player has trips, considering his flop check-raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

yea. this is exactly what i thought. he clearly does not have trips.

however, you are underrating the possiblility that he has 67, 68, 77, 88, or 99. For these reasons I would not raise the turn or river.

[The Dude]

[ QUOTE ]
2 clear mistakes in this hand.
1. Not reraising the flop (lets get some "real" information about this so-called straightforward player, ie. Does he cap? Does he bet out on turn?).

[/ QUOTE ]
Why? He's showing down a 6. I'm going to need to hit my hand to win this pot.

[ QUOTE ]
Other arguable mistakes.
1. Calling preflop (I call here but I don't like it too much).

[/ QUOTE ]
If you don't like it, why do you do it? I would rather raise preflop than fold, BTW.

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]

2 clear mistakes in this hand.
1. Not reraising the flop (lets get some "real" information about this so-called straightforward player, ie. Does he cap? Does he bet out on turn?).

[/ QUOTE ]

While not terrible, reraising the flop is pretty bad. what more information do you need other than that a straightforward player check-raised a late position bettor on a flop of 644? This pretty clearly defines a range of hands that he could have, and a 3bet does not give you any more information. The only argument in favor of a 3bet would be for a free card, or if you think the player is weak enough to fold his small pocket pairs to a turn bet, but this is doubtful.

[ QUOTE ]
2. Calling the turn. (I would fold; a raise is a lot better than calling).

[/ QUOTE ]

As has already been discussed, folding here is a mistake, especially since hero will gain a bet or two on the river when he improves. This is a call because we can fairly safely put villain on 22, 33, 55, a 6, or possibly a 77-99. 77 and 88 are unlikely given hero's holding.

[ QUOTE ]

Other arguable mistakes.
1. Calling preflop (I call here but I don't like it too much).

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not arguable. The only question here is to raise or call. You absolutely cannot fold this hand after two limpers in the CO. You're giving up way too much if you do.

[mmcd]

I was damn sure that if he were willing to bet 22 on the river he'd pay off the raise.

How often does this player bet 22 on the river here?

I doubt he does it very often. Better for him to induce the bluff. Likewise with 33 55 or even a 6.

This is my main problem with the river raise. If he bets into you again, theres a very good chance your 7 or 8 is no good, or a much smaller chance he's outright bluffing.

I think the type of player your describe is far more likely to induce a bluff with his marginal hands on the river than to make razor thin value bets. The weakest hand I can see him value betting the river with here is a 6 with a good kicker, and maybe not even then. I don't think a weak/tight Vegas "Can probably beat 20 but is in over his head at 40" value bets 55 here too often, and I doubt he would ever value bet 22 or 33.

[mmcd]

The king on the board is virtually meaningless in this situation. He'd have to have specifically K6.

You are discounting your pair outs WAY too much.

[mmcd]

1. Not reraising the flop (lets get some "real" information about this so-called straightforward player, ie. Does he cap? Does he bet out on turn?).

I think even weak-tightish players are capable of either capping the flop or pulling a stop and go with a 6, 22, 33, or 55 on this board.

[The Dude]

[ QUOTE ]
How often does this player bet 22 on the river here?

[/ QUOTE ]
Not very often, if ever.

[ QUOTE ]
Better for him to induce the bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]
Just because it's better doesn't mean he'll do it.

[mmcd]

[ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Better for him to induce the bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]
Just because it's better doesn't mean he'll do it.

[/ QUOTE ]


[ QUOTE ]
As it was, he checked to me on the river...I bet and he called

[/ QUOTE ]

[The Dude]

Yeah, and he didn't check-raise me on the flop with trips either.

So the real question is: if he bets the river, did he check-raise the flop with trips or better (or improve since then), or did he bet his 6 on the river?

[mmcd]

Improve since then (or 88, 99).

[YoureToast]

[ QUOTE ]

Quote:
2 clear mistakes in this hand.
1. Not reraising the flop (lets get some "real" information about this so-called straightforward player, ie. Does he cap? Does he bet out on turn?).




[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why? He's showing down a 6. I'm going to need to hit my hand to win this pot.

[/ QUOTE ]


I think your jumping to conclusions that he has a 6 here. If he is "completely" straightforward, he could have a 4 or any overpair. If he's somewhat "tricky" straightforward, he also could have a 4 or any overpair. By reraising, you might be able to find out if, in fact, he does "only" have a 6. If he caps, or calls and then bets out on the turn, you can (depending on the texture of the turn card) more likely put him on an overpair (which kills your pair draws) or a 4. If he calls and checks the turn, walllla...you learned that your read that he had a 6 WAS probably correct AND you get your free card if you choose. Seems like a no-lose situation to me. You also save turn and river big bets if you don't hit on the turn, and possibly one more big bet if you happen to hit your 7 or 8 and its not good.

[YoureToast]

[ QUOTE ]
This pretty clearly defines a range of hands that he could have, and a 3bet does not give you any more information.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah? Heres the range of hands I put on this straightforward player. 4x, 6x, 33, 55, 66, 77, 88, 99, TT, JJ (maybe even KK or AA), 57, 58, AK, AQ, AJ...and on and on it goes. Relatively speaking, I know nothing about what this "straightforward" player has. By reraising, I (1) have a possibility (admittedly low) of villain folding, (2) define my hand and get to see him act TWICE more before I decide whether to go to river with my relatively weak holding, and (3) get more money in the pot if I hit my gutshot.

[ QUOTE ]
This is a call because we can fairly safely put villain on 22, 33, 55, a 6, or possibly a 77-99. 77 and 88 are unlikely given hero's holding.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just don't understand how you deduce that villains holdings are limited to these (as explained above).

[ QUOTE ]
Other arguable mistakes.
1. Calling preflop (I call here but I don't like it too much).



This is not arguable. The only question here is to raise or call. You absolutely cannot fold this hand after two limpers in the CO. You're giving up way too much if you do.

[/ QUOTE ]

My stats for suited cards suck. I overplay them and I think most other players do too. I still call, so I agree.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you guys are vastly overrating the possibility that this specific player has trips

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]

The Dude's plan is to raise a bet, and bet if checked to.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh?

[AsSeenOnTV]

All I can say is the drugs of today must be alot better then they were in my day.....

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
By reraising, I (1) have a possibility (admittedly low) of villain folding

[/ QUOTE ]

No chance he folds here.

[ QUOTE ]
(2) define my hand and get to see him act TWICE more before I decide whether to go to river with my relatively weak holding

[/ QUOTE ]

Define your hand? You're not going to the river with eight high, you have to improve to win this pot. Seeing him act TWICE before your next action tells you nothing. His most likely action to a 3bet is call and check the turn, regardless of what he has, so you don't gain any information. And if you did gain some information, what are you going to do with it? Your hand needs improvement.

[ QUOTE ]
(3) get more money in the pot if I hit my gutshot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll just let you rethink this one.


As far as deducing the villains holding based on his CR, it's pretty easy. 4x is very unlikely since he did a move that protects a weak holding. A 4 does not want to limit the field like that. AA-JJ are not possible holdings considering the preflop action. TT is very unlikely. 99 is possible, 88 and 77 are possible but unlikely given that hero holds one of each. 6x is very likely. 55, 33, and 22 are also likely holdings. Villain does not have a draw like 57 or 58 for the same reasons that he doesn't have a 4. He also doesn't have big ace hands due to the lack of a preflop raise, and then a CR on the flop. Those two plays are inconsistent with an overcard type hand.

[ QUOTE ]

My stats for suited cards suck. I overplay them and I think most other players do too. I still call, so I agree.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe that's because you 3bet in this spot, and you refuse to put opponents on a likely range of hands, instead opting to think they could have almost anything.

[The Dude]

[ QUOTE ]
Huh?

[/ QUOTE ]
Huh?

[Trainwreck]

I was thinking something along these lines:

You sir are a magoo.

This was an obvious fold on the flop.

Laugh riot on anything else, wearing fancy pants at a 10/20? ROLFLMAO!

Play like this, you go broke! [said with bad chinese accent from old calgon commercial that these magoos would never know]

&gt;TW&lt;

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Huh?

[/ QUOTE ]
Huh?

[/ QUOTE ]

you said overrating
but i read underrating
thus my post
made no sense

[YoureToast]

[ QUOTE ]

No chance he folds here.

[/ QUOTE ]

None? Zero? Nunca? I beg to differ.

[ QUOTE ]
I'll just let you rethink this one.


[/ QUOTE ]

I've rethought it and I misspoke a little. I should have said that 3 betting "may" get more money in the pot in the event you hit your gutshot. Usually, I would agree the action would tend to NOT do this, but it can have the effect of doing thing, especially since the desired draw is somewhat hidden.

[ QUOTE ]
Your hand needs improvement.

[/ QUOTE ]

So would you bet as The Dude here did? I would, even though I need to improve.

[ QUOTE ]
4x is very unlikely since he did a move that protects a weak holding.

[/ QUOTE ]

This part of your post is where I disagree most. Even straightforward players are prone to play in a non-straightforward manner heads up. I'm relatively straightforward but when it gets heads up, I do everything I can to hide my true holding. Here there is no reason why even the most straightforward middle limit player would not check raise with a very strong holding. The idea is the beat guys like you into submission, rather than just beating you pretty good. This illustrates a sort of contradiction in the original post -- how often do you find a straightforward player continue to play straightforward heads up? I think the answer is rarely.

[ QUOTE ]
AA-JJ are not possible holdings considering the preflop action.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow. You think getting money in the pot on the flop is a flawed way to get more money in the pot, but you calling with a great hand heads up in the big blind is completely out of the question. Even the most straightforward players will do this.

[ QUOTE ]
Villain does not have a draw like 57 or 58 for the same reasons that he doesn't have a 4.

[/ QUOTE ]

He'll slowplay them? Please explain this one.

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe that's because you 3bet in this spot, and you refuse to put opponents on a likely range of hands, instead opting to think they could have almost anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course I put players on a range of hands; here I just do see how the action allows you to narrow it so well. You may be right here in both of your statements and I will focus on that.

[Justin A]

Last reply here. You don't seem to want to listen, and you're finding arguments that fit your conclusion.


I've rethought it and I misspoke a little. I should have said that 3 betting "may" get more money in the pot in the event you hit your gutshot. Usually, I would agree the action would tend to NOT do this, but it can have the effect of doing thing, especially since the desired draw is somewhat hidden.

Getting more money in the pot "in case" you hit your draw makes no sense. You don't have enough equitey HU to want to get more money in the pot with your draw.


So would you bet as The Dude here did? I would, even though I need to improve.

Betting last to act on the flop is good because you have a small chance of winning the pot immediately. The chance of winning the pot immediately with a 3bet is miniscule.


This part of your post is where I disagree most. Even straightforward players are prone to play in a non-straightforward manner heads up. I'm relatively straightforward but when it gets heads up, I do everything I can to hide my true holding. Here there is no reason why even the most straightforward middle limit player would not check raise with a very strong holding. The idea is the beat guys like you into submission, rather than just beating you pretty good. This illustrates a sort of contradiction in the original post -- how often do you find a straightforward player continue to play straightforward heads up? I think the answer is rarely.


When this move was made, the pot was not HU. This was a multiway pot that was made HU by his checkraise. A player with a 4 would not want to do this, and neither would a player with a draw. If he had 57 for the open ender, he would not play it with a check-raise to limit the field.


Wow. You think getting money in the pot on the flop is a flawed way to get more money in the pot, but you calling with a great hand heads up in the big blind is completely out of the question. Even the most straightforward players will do this.


Now you're starting to make me wonder if we're talking about the same hand. Getting money in on the flop is wrong because you don't want to get more money in the pot. His opponent is not HU in the big blind. He's in the big blind and three players have limped. He's raising AA-JJ, and he did not raise. So he doesn't have AA-JJ.

[YoureToast]

I did a poor job of remembering the original post. I still don't understand how you narrow the types of hands he has and be so confident about that. I have learned (and maybe its from playing at Party for too long) that the only thing to expect HU or 3handed is the unexpected. I will rethink my cynicism here. Thanks for the insight.

[bernie]

Your river raise would look a little odd. What hand are you representing playing this way?

Raising the turn looks like a good alternative. It's a nice semi bluff card. Especially if you really think he only has a 6.

b