baseball predictions

[blindu]

who made the best off-season deals?
who made the worst off-season deals?
who will win it all next year?
who will blow this year?



well i really cant come to a decision as to who made the best off-season deals. the braves though, wow. getting tim hudson will make their starting rotation amazing.
worst off-season, same. cant come to a decision. the d-backs really made some terrible calls. russ ortiz. ouch. my pick for winning it all...red sox. they didnt lose much from last years team and i think that in the all-too-familiar ALCS scenario with boston and newyork, boston will come out on top, EVEN if they are the worst team, talent wise at that time. i dont care. still picking bosox. for the NL side...the cardinals are actually about the same strength this year...idk..they can be a threat. i like the braves though, for some reason.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
who made the worst off-season deals?

[/ QUOTE ]

The Dodgers for not keeping Beltre and Green.

[[censored]]

The Yankees will win it all this year and every year for the next 10 years.

[istewart]

[ QUOTE ]
The Yankees will win it all this year and every year for the next 10 years.

[/ QUOTE ]

[mostsmooth]

[ QUOTE ]
The Yankees will win it all this year and every year for the next 10 years.

[/ QUOTE ]
i hope youre right

[B00T]

Best Deals: I'd have to say the Mets picking up Pedro and Beltran. Pedro is hugely underrated right now and everyone is dismissing him to suck. This team added 2 All-Stars and will help a team with a large upside this year. I must say I am definitely not a Mets fan and talking with any kind of bias in my opinion.

Worst Moves- Oakland. You cannot lose Hudson AND Mulder when you have such a lackluster offense. Zito has been shaky, and Harden is not going to carry the load of those 2 trucks that just rolled outta town.

I think the Yankees will win. #1 they are due (for their terms), #2 there are enough new players who are hungry for a championship. A-Rod, Giambi, etc. Adding Unit is huge, and I think they are done foolin around.

Who will blow? Oakland is not going to be within 10 games of 3rd place. Angels, Texas, Seattle, Oakland in that order for the division. Oakland is awful.

[nothumb]

I like what the Sox have got so far but they will need to make some more changes midseason. I predict Hanley Ramirez going for a strong starting pitcher, since at least one out of the Miller/Schilling/Wells trio will spend significant time on the DL this season. Expect to see Deathwish (Bronson Arroyo) put in some strong starts this season but end up in the bullpen come October.

Also expect Renteria to put up career numbers hitting in this lineup. I'm looking for a good season out of Mueller again, too, a slight uptick from last year. Manny and Papi will continue to be President and Prime Minister of Pwntown AL.

Yankees will be tough this year. I see some serious question marks. Pavano making the transition to the AL, and being injury prone and maybe not tough enough, he could go either way. Don't know if he's the type to fold under the NY lights. Johnson will be tough but not as dominating this year as in the past. Look for the Moose to be a barometer of the Yankees' success this year, see how he handles moving to the #2 role and if he can help the young guys along a bit. I think he'll settle in at the second slot nicely and probably have a strong year, although his age is getting to be a factor.

Also, first base. Tino is going to be slow getting back and Giambi, well, who the hell knows. Yanks take a slight hit at second with Tony Butterfingers but not a huge one, Cairo was no Robby Alomar either.

Right side of the Yankee infield is still pretty good. /images/graemlins/frown.gif
Also, Matsui is a scary son of a bitch. He's gonna keep getting better and better, I really respect that yellow devil.

Also look for Baltimore to challenge everybody in runs scored and still finish fifteen games behind the second place team. /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/blush.gif

NT

[Jack of Arcades]

Beltre, maybe. Green, are you crazy? They got a great deal.

[hoyaboy1]

The Braves? You kidding? Their offense took a HUGE hit, and Hudson can't do much better than Wright, who left. Kolb is really easy to hit and is a disaster waiting to happen.

Bet the Phils in the East. Everyone else made loud moves and is overvalued.

[Soul Daddy]

[ QUOTE ]
The Yankees will win it all this year and every year for the next 10 years.

[/ QUOTE ]
Bah!

I'll go with the Marlins for best offseason, close second to the M's. Astros for worst. Sox repeat over Marlins.

[freehat]

[ QUOTE ]
Who will blow? Oakland is not going to be within 10 games of 3rd place. Angels, Texas, Seattle, Oakland in that order for the division. Oakland is awful.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is ridiculous, the division will be up for grabs between Oakland and the Angels. Oakland's offense should be improved (addition of Kendall, and improvements from Chavez, Crosby, Swisher, and with the Ginter/Ellis platoon at second) and will help to make up for the loss of Hudson and Mulder, to go along with a dynamite bullpen which was an achillees heel of the team last year. Oakland will be in the thick of it all year and should be especially strong in the second half of the year.

[Soul Daddy]

While I don't doubt that Oakland will remain competitive this year, I think to expect them to run neck and neck with the Angels is a bit optimistic. The Angels are goot.

[MarkL444]

AL Central = Detroit

[CCass]

[ QUOTE ]
The Braves? You kidding? Their offense took a HUGE hit, and Hudson can't do much better than Wright, who left. Kolb is really easy to hit and is a disaster waiting to happen.

Bet the Phils in the East. Everyone else made loud moves and is overvalued.

[/ QUOTE ]

Must be a repeat post from the beginning of last year. The Braves do have questions (LF and Kolb as closer), but the Phillies have some work to do, and the Mets are still a player or 2 away. If anyone takes the NL East away from the Braves this year, it will be the Marlins.

[hoyaboy1]

The Marlins lost their best pitcher from last year and added a first baseman that stunk for a good portion of last season.

The Braves are going to be worse, the Mets and Marlins a little better. The Phillies ditched Bowa, and made decent upgrades in CF and in the rotation. If that equates to even 5 extra wins they take the division. I would make them a very small favorite - but that still makes them a fantastic bet. As I said, very undervalued

[tbach24]

the braves got an overated pitcher and an overated closer, awesome.
the sox made their staff into one of the best 1-5 in baseball and got a great SS.
the mets got a top 15 pitcher and top 5 of. they also kept intact some of their better players.
the yankees missed out on some hitters, but got a couple good pitchers.

so imo it went:
1. sox
2. mets
3. yankees
4. braves

[tbach24]

[ QUOTE ]
The Marlins lost their best pitcher from last year

[/ QUOTE ]

Not true. AJ Burnett is the best pitcher in the NL East.

[bugstud]

Worst deals - Anyone's deal with a starter not named Pedro. Russ Ortiz, Benson, Jaret Wright all getting 7 mil? *VOMIT*

Also, DBacks with Glaus...really bad deal. Also dislike the Sexson deal for the same reasons...injuries, especially shoulder injuries, are the death injury anymore. They're harder to treat and rehab and they seem to recur substantially more often.

[B00T]

[ QUOTE ]
(addition of Kendall, and improvements from Chavez, Crosby, Swisher, and with the Ginter/Ellis platoon at second)

[/ QUOTE ]

Look at the names you listed. Quite frankly, they suck. Compare those names to any other lineup in the AL West. They are a young (as always) team, with some potential. The BEST they can do this year is be in the shadow of Texas' young bashers. Texiera Blalock and Soriano all eat those guys for lunch in terms of playing.

Beltre, Sexson, Vlad, G. Anderson etc. are monsters compared to what Oakland has. And for the first time, their pitching doesnt give them any benfit of the doubt.

Their bullpen could aspire to be as good as Anaheim's pen.

Oakland has no chance of winning this division.

[hoyaboy1]

I wasn't talking about best pitcher going forward. Pavano was their best pitcher last year. And while AJ has great stuff, I gotta see how long he can last without getting hurt before I say he is better than Pedro.

[tbach24]

pavano was a fluke, watch. wright was the better SP pickup by the yankees. also, look at aj's numbers, they're much better. oh yeah, before you talk about injury and health vs. pedro, consider pedro's rep. statistics do not equal w/l, i'm talking about era/whip/k/9

[tbach24]

You need to read moneyball...and fast!

[hoyaboy1]

I don't expect Pavano to ever equal last year's numbers, but he should remain a solid middle of the rotation starter. I have much less confidence in Wright for a number of reasons.

Edit - oh yea, I forgot. Again, Pavano was the Marlin's most valuable pitcher last year by a large margin, although I too would prefer Burnett going forward. I'm not at all sure he'll be better than Pedro next year though (there isn't really any evidence to suggest he will be).

[tbach24]

wow, i didnt realize pavano was so good last year. he sucks for my fantasy league and burnett's nasty for it, so i assumed there was some correlation.

[Boris]

[ QUOTE ]
Who will blow? Oakland is not going to be within 10 games of 3rd place. Angels, Texas, Seattle, Oakland in that order for the division. Oakland is awful.

[/ QUOTE ]

Die bitch.

[BWebb]

No love for the Giants. They have the best player (Bonds), best pitcher in the NL (Schmidt), added Benitez at closer, Alou in right to add some punch, Vizquel and Matheny sure up the defense. The only knock is their age, but that has been a knock for years. Add in nobody in the division did anything to improve themselves, I see them getting home field throughout the playoffs. GO GIANTS!!!

[hoyaboy1]

[ QUOTE ]
wow, i didnt realize pavano was so good last year. he sucks for my fantasy league and burnett's nasty for it, so i assumed there was some correlation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't worry about it, happens to all of us

[tbach24]

The G-Men will be the best of that division. Bonds is SO good. It's ridiculous. I also think the addition of Alou will make him get more pitches. Schmidt is the best pitcher in the NL (him or Sheets) and Benitez is really good. Top 5 RP.

[bugstud]

[ QUOTE ]
No love for the Giants. They have the best player (Bonds), best pitcher in the NL (Schmidt), added Benitez at closer, Alou in right to add some punch, Vizquel and Matheny sure up the defense. The only knock is their age, but that has been a knock for years. Add in nobody in the division did anything to improve themselves, I see them getting home field throughout the playoffs. GO GIANTS!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

Hope you like 900+ AB's of below replacement value from SS and C then

You should really be upset that they just don't start Torrealba and spend the money on a player that's younger than 30.

[BWebb]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
No love for the Giants. They have the best player (Bonds), best pitcher in the NL (Schmidt), added Benitez at closer, Alou in right to add some punch, Vizquel and Matheny sure up the defense. The only knock is their age, but that has been a knock for years. Add in nobody in the division did anything to improve themselves, I see them getting home field throughout the playoffs. GO GIANTS!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

Hope you like 900+ AB's of below replacement value from SS and C then

You should really be upset that they just don't start Torrealba and spend the money on a player that's younger than 30.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would have loved for them to just give Torealba the starting job. I think he is pretty close to Matheny in terms of defense and he cannot be worse offensively. I would also love for them to trade Alfonzo and give Feliz the 3B job, but that will be tough. On the plus, word is Alfonzo got his fat ass in shape this year, so let's hope he reverts to his old form. However, a lineup of:
1. Durham
2. Vizquel
3. Snow
4. Bonds
5. Alou
6. Alfonzo
7. Grissom

plus Feliz and Cruz off the bench should be able to carry a light hitting #8 hitter. Age is always a concern, but it's baseball not football.

[B00T]

[ QUOTE ]
You need to read moneyball...and fast!

[/ QUOTE ]

Moneyball was all well and good for OPS and sacrifices and what not when you have good pitchers. Any team that loses 2 pitchers (who would be #1 starters on close to 1/2 of the teams) is cooking a recipe of disaster.

I'll take wagers (under $100) the A's dont even over .500

EDIT:Oddly enough I just looked at Pinnacle.

Mon 4/4 Total Regular Season Wins by: Oakland Athletics
12:00 PM 139 Over 80.5 wins -122
140 Under 80.5 wins +112

They dont think so either.

[bugstud]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You need to read moneyball...and fast!

[/ QUOTE ]

Moneyball was all well and good for OPS and sacrifices and what not when you have good pitchers. Any team that loses 2 pitchers (who would be #1 starters on close to 1/2 of the teams) is cooking a recipe of disaster.

I'll take wagers (under $100) the A's dont even over .500

EDIT:Oddly enough I just looked at Pinnacle.

Mon 4/4 Total Regular Season Wins by: Oakland Athletics
12:00 PM 139 Over 80.5 wins -122
140 Under 80.5 wins +112

They dont think so either.

[/ QUOTE ]

not quite true, you're getting +112 on under 81 essentually.
so they think that it's going to be over or they're getting action on the over.

In any case, I think they'll end up about 85 wins. They have enough starters that they should figure out which is the best 5 to have. I like their bullpen a lot now, and their offense is improved.

I'd be willing to take the bet

[boedeker]

braves. totally.

[Benholio]

[ QUOTE ]
braves. totally.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the Braves' deals have really big upside. We all know Hudson is a potential ace. Brian Jordan and Raul Mondesi both have potential to be worth way more than their $1m pricetag.

I think all the NL east teams (except maybe the Nationals) look very good this year, but the Braves will still be the team to beat. Hard to match the depth of the Braves lineup or Rotation.

And yes, I am biased!

Projected Lineup:
1.Rafael Furcal SS
2.Marcus Giles 2B
3.Chipper Jones 3B
4.Andruw Jones CF
5.Adam LaRoche 1B
6.Raul Mondesi RF
7.Johnny Estrada C
8.Brian Jordan LF

Rotation:
Tim Hudson
John Smoltz
John Thompson
Mike Hampton
Horacio Ramirez

I challenge you to show me a rotation that stacks up with that one all the way down to the 5th spot!

[Dead]

Mariners made the best off-season deals.

Canpt pick one for worst off-season deals.

Yanks will win it all this year.

Lots of teams will blow it this year.

[Dead]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The Marlins lost their best pitcher from last year

[/ QUOTE ]

Not true. AJ Burnett is the best pitcher in the NL East.

[/ QUOTE ]

Eh, no. I think that's Hudson now.

[hoyaboy1]

Again with the Braves. You might well win again, but no way do Mondesi or Jordan approach Drew's value, and Hudson will be hardpressed to match what Wright did. Kolb is gonna be WAY worse than bullpen Smoltz - the only way the Braves are close to as good as last year is if starter Smoltz is amazing and LaRoche has a huge year.

[bugstud]

[ QUOTE ]
I challenge you to show me a rotation that stacks up with that one all the way down to the 5th spot!

[/ QUOTE ]

When Healthy:

Prior
Wood
Zambrano
Maddux
Rusch

[Dead]

Hampton is bad now. Colorado is partly the reason.

I think the Yankees rotation is much better:

Johnson
Mussina
Pavano
Wright
Brown

[Benholio]

[ QUOTE ]
[quoteI challenge you to show me a rotation that stacks up with that one all the way down to the 5th spot!

[/ QUOTE ]

When Healthy:

Prior
Wood
Zambrano
Maddux
Rusch

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll admit Glendon Rusch has put together better numbers than I expected. However, "when healthy" is a pretty big qualifier!

[sublime]

Lots of teams will blow it this year.

blow what?

[Dead]

Blow it completely. Some teams that did well last year will finish in the basement this year, imo.

So many teams spent tons of money over the offseason trying to build their teams into the best in their respective divisions, and in many cases it was a waste.

The Mets are an example of a team that wasted too much money on someone like Beltran. He won't help them that much.

The Yanks are an example of a team that spent their money wisely imo. So are the Sox.

Look for the Yanks to win the AL East by 5 games at least and to beat the Red Sox either in the ALCS or the ALDS.

[tbach24]

Schilling, Clement, Wells, Arroyo, Miller.

[Benholio]

[ QUOTE ]
Hampton is bad now. Colorado is partly the reason.

I think the Yankees rotation is much better:

Johnson
Mussina
Pavano
Wright
Brown

[/ QUOTE ]

This could be a good rotation, for sure, but I hardly would consider it "much better", if better at all. Johnson and Brown are one injury away from retirement. Pavano and Wright have had a grand total of 1 good year each. Mussina looked pretty bad last year (4.59 ERA), but I expect he will be better this year.

[bugstud]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hampton is bad now. Colorado is partly the reason.

I think the Yankees rotation is much better:

Johnson
Mussina
Pavano
Wright
Brown

[/ QUOTE ]

This could be a good rotation, for sure, but I hardly would consider it "much better", if better at all. Johnson and Brown are one injury away from retirement. Pavano and Wright have had a grand total of 1 good year each. Mussina looked pretty bad last year (4.59 ERA), but I expect he will be better this year.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this answers my question on rationality /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Smoltz is one injury away, Hudson has oblique problems, Hampton and Ramirez both don't have the peripherals to support their ERAs.

[Dead]

Mussina had trouble last year because he only had about half the spring training pitching time that most pitchers get, and then he had the Japanese trip to play the Devil Rays right afterward, plus he battled injuries.

I think that he will get maybe 18 wins this year, along with an ERA around 3.50.

Look for the Unit to continue being dominant, and for Pavano to do slightly worse than last year. I'd say he does about the same as Pavano. I'd say that Wright has about a 3.80 ERA, and Brown has about 4.10 ERA.

Assume that all these guys stay healthy, couple that with our offense and the strong bullpen that we have now, and it's clear that the Yankees are headed for another ring this year.

[hoyaboy1]

Hudson is the only guy in the Braves rotation who I have any idea what to expect from; the others have a good chance of either stinking or having 10 starts. Not a top 5 rotation, IMO.

[Benholio]

[ QUOTE ]
Schilling, Clement, Wells, Arroyo, Miller.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't mind you being right about this one. Clement has always been a favorite of mine, and I feel like he could have already been a big ace, and he still might be.

Arroyo has potential, but he still only has one halfway decent year, and he's been trying at the major league level for 5 years now.

Miller is going to miss the first month of the season, and when he comes back it will have been almost a year since the last time he pitched. You are going to need a different #5 to match up here! ;P

[sublime]

. You are going to need a different #5 to match up here! ;P

wakefield

[sublime]

This could be a good rotation, for sure, but I hardly would consider it "much better", if better at all. Johnson and Brown are one injury away from retirement. Pavano and Wright have had a grand total of 1 good year each. Mussina looked pretty bad last year (4.59 ERA), but I expect he will be better this year.

[Benholio]

Well, Wakefield can put the innings in for sure, but they aren't anything special. 4.88 ERA, 1.382 WHIP, and 116 K's compared to 63 walks last year.

[jesusarenque]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En respuesta a:</font><hr />
</font><blockquote><font class="small">En respuesta a:</font><hr />
who made the worst off-season deals?

[/ QUOTE ]

The Dodgers for not keeping Beltre and Green.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your ignorance of baseball is obvious. The Dodgers have made some great moves in the past year, and they are going to dominate the NL West for a while. Green is pretty much finished, and Beltre wasn't worth the money.

[jesusarenque]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En respuesta a:</font><hr />

Who will blow? Oakland is not going to be within 10 games of 3rd place. Angels, Texas, Seattle, Oakland in that order for the division. Oakland is awful.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have got to be kidding. Oakland is way better than Seattle and Texas. Oakland will probably win the division, with Anaheim finishing second.

[CCass]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I challenge you to show me a rotation that stacks up with that one all the way down to the 5th spot!

[/ QUOTE ]

When Healthy:

Prior
Wood
Zambrano
Maddux
Rusch

[/ QUOTE ]

There are already reports that Prior is shutting down due to elbow "issues".

[tbach24]

1. Burnett
2. Pedro

somewhere in the 3-5 range is Hudson. Burnett and Pedro are neck-and-neck, but blow the rest of the competition out of the water. They also have very nice parks vs. ATL's hitter friendly park.

[jesusarenque]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En respuesta a:</font><hr />
The G-Men will be the best of that division. Bonds is SO good. It's ridiculous. I also think the addition of Alou will make him get more pitches. Schmidt is the best pitcher in the NL (him or Sheets) and Benitez is really good. Top 5 RP.

[/ QUOTE ]

The Giants are going to be really bad. The NL West is a two-horse race between the Dodgers and Padres. The Dodgers could run away with it.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
Green, are you crazy?

[/ QUOTE ]

Green was a great person to have in the clubhouse, he drew a lot of fans, and his second half numbers were spectacular.

[tbach24]

I forgot the Padres, I'm such a tool.
Here's how my rankings goes:
1. Padres
2. Dodgers
3. Giants
4. DBacks
5. Rockies

I wasn't thinking past their SP1, RP and OF. If you had to make a team of the best SP, RP and hitter, they easily get it though.

[BWebb]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The G-Men will be the best of that division. Bonds is SO good. It's ridiculous. I also think the addition of Alou will make him get more pitches. Schmidt is the best pitcher in the NL (him or Sheets) and Benitez is really good. Top 5 RP.

[/ QUOTE ]

The Giants are going to be really bad. The NL West is a two-horse race between the Dodgers and Padres. The Dodgers could run away with it.

[/ QUOTE ]

You, my friend, have no idea about baseball. Dodgers lineup is extemely weak once you get past the first 4 spots. Penny is an injury risk and the #5 spot of the rotation will be a nightmare.

[sam h]

Worst offseason deal was obviously the Magglio Ordonez contract, but that one bad deal is outweighed in aggregate by the Snakes' three terrible decisions on Ortiz, Glaus, and Green.

Best offseason award goes to the Mets.

Red Sox win the series again, in six over the Marlins.

Usual suspects will blow but will be joined by Atlanta, Oakland, and LA.

[tbach24]

[ QUOTE ]
Mariners made the best off-season deals.

[/ QUOTE ]

Who? Beltre had one FANTASTIC year but other than that has been awful. Sexson is oft-injured but still good. They didn't make any improvements to their staff...I think they had an awful offseason.

[ QUOTE ]
Canpt pick one for worst off-season deals.

[/ QUOTE ]

Look above.

[ QUOTE ]
Yanks will win it all this year.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not if Theo has any say.

[ QUOTE ]
Lots of teams will blow it this year.

[/ QUOTE ]

Finally we come to an agreement.

[jesusarenque]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En respuesta a:</font><hr />
</font><blockquote><font class="small">En respuesta a:</font><hr />
</font><blockquote><font class="small">En respuesta a:</font><hr />
The G-Men will be the best of that division. Bonds is SO good. It's ridiculous. I also think the addition of Alou will make him get more pitches. Schmidt is the best pitcher in the NL (him or Sheets) and Benitez is really good. Top 5 RP.

[/ QUOTE ]

The Giants are going to be really bad. The NL West is a two-horse race between the Dodgers and Padres. The Dodgers could run away with it.

[/ QUOTE ]

You, my friend, have no idea about baseball. Dodgers lineup is extemely weak once you get past the first 4 spots. Penny is an injury risk and the #5 spot of the rotation will be a nightmare.

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh, no. The Dodgers' lineup is weak? Have you seen the clowns (Bonds not included) the Giants are going to run out there? They should rename the team the SF AARPs.

[BWebb]

I don't see how you guys think a team that was one game away from the division title last year, then went out and improved their lineup, bullpen and have a deep rotation will get worse this year? Especially when one team lost their 2nd best starter (Wells) and didn't add anything significant, while the other team lost its top two hitters (Beltre and Green).

[jesusarenque]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En respuesta a:</font><hr />
I don't see how you guys think a team that was one game away from the division title last year, then went out and improved their lineup, bullpen and have a deep rotation will get worse this year? Especially when one team lost their 2nd best starter (Wells) and didn't add anything significant, while the other team lost its top two hitters (Beltre and Green).

[/ QUOTE ]

The Giants lineup will not be better this year than last. They are all a year older, and if Bonds' gets hurt they have a chance to be really terrible.

[jesusarenque]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En respuesta a:</font><hr />
Worst offseason deal was obviously the Magglio Ordonez contract, but that one bad deal is outweighed in aggregate by the Snakes' three terrible decisions on Ortiz, Glaus, and Green.

Best offseason award goes to the Mets.

Red Sox win the series again, in six over the Marlins.

Usual suspects will blow but will be joined by Atlanta, Oakland, and LA.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oakland and LA will not only not blow, but they will also have a very good chance to win their divisions.

[cbragado]

Worst offseason moves - Los Angeles

NL West - SF
NL East - Florida
NL Central - Cards
Wildcard - Atlanta

AL West - Anaheim
AL East - Yankees
AL Central - Minnesota
Wild Card - Boston

World Series - SF over Boston in 7

[BWebb]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't see how you guys think a team that was one game away from the division title last year, then went out and improved their lineup, bullpen and have a deep rotation will get worse this year? Especially when one team lost their 2nd best starter (Wells) and didn't add anything significant, while the other team lost its top two hitters (Beltre and Green).

[/ QUOTE ]

The Giants lineup will not be better this year than last. They are all a year older, and if Bonds' gets hurt they have a chance to be really terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well no [censored]. If Gagne gets hurt, the Dodgers will have trouble closing games.

[BWebb]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The G-Men will be the best of that division. Bonds is SO good. It's ridiculous. I also think the addition of Alou will make him get more pitches. Schmidt is the best pitcher in the NL (him or Sheets) and Benitez is really good. Top 5 RP.

[/ QUOTE ]

The Giants are going to be really bad. The NL West is a two-horse race between the Dodgers and Padres. The Dodgers could run away with it.

[/ QUOTE ]

You, my friend, have no idea about baseball. Dodgers lineup is extemely weak once you get past the first 4 spots. Penny is an injury risk and the #5 spot of the rotation will be a nightmare.

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh, no. The Dodgers' lineup is weak? Have you seen the clowns (Bonds not included) the Giants are going to run out there? They should rename the team the SF AARPs.

[/ QUOTE ]


1. Durham &gt; Izturis
2. Vizquel = Werth
3. Snow &lt; Drew
4. Bonds &gt; Kent
5. Alou &gt; Bradley
6. Alfonzo &gt; Choi
7. Grissom &gt; Valentin
8. Matheny = Ross or the other dude

[cbragado]

The Giants will have the best offense in the NL West outside of Colorado (coors field effect) just like last year. Their only weakness last year was their bullpen, which was addressed with the aquisition of Benitez.

The Dodgers' bullpen is the only thing they have on the Giants. And even that is a stretch, considering that their second best relief pitcher went to Florida last year.

The Padres are throwing out the same team as last year, less David Wells. Peavy is good, but Jason Schmidt may be the best in baseball. The Padres Defense is inconsistent at the corners and their offense is horrible at home.

[Jack of Arcades]

You realize that that's a completely [censored] stupid way of comparing lineups, and that it proves nothing, right?

[Jack of Arcades]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, Wakefield can put the innings in for sure, but they aren't anything special. 4.88 ERA, 1.382 WHIP, and 116 K's compared to 63 walks last year.

[/ QUOTE ]

190 innings of league average pitching is very very special.

[Jack of Arcades]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Green, are you crazy?

[/ QUOTE ]

Green was a great person to have in the clubhouse, he drew a lot of fans, and his second half numbers were spectacular.

[/ QUOTE ]

You know what draws a lot of fans? Winning.

And first half numbers are just as relevant as second half numbers. Quit cherrypicking everything to try to make him look better than he is.

[Benholio]

[ QUOTE ]
190 innings of league average pitching is very very special.

[/ QUOTE ]

Average != special

[Jack of Arcades]

Los Angeles has likely the best defense in baseball, while San Franciso, uh, doesn't come close with my man Barry showing as much mobility as the Lincoln Memorial. Dodgers allowed only 4.2 R/G while SF allowed 4.75. The difference in ERA isn't as much - only .3 runs - which shows the difference in defense.

[DangerGoodson]

Twins=World Champs.

Have the pitching, the defense, and the young power bats.

[ThaSaltCracka]

WTF, where did that avatar come from?

[Chris Daddy Cool]

I'll take this bet.

[nolanfan34]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll take this bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I'd put money on that too.

After reading this thread, there are some people with some interesting analysis style of baseball. I'm being generous with that sentence.

[jesusarenque]

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I don't see how you guys think a team that was one game away from the division title last year, then went out and improved their lineup, bullpen and have a deep rotation will get worse this year? Especially when one team lost their 2nd best starter (Wells) and didn't add anything significant, while the other team lost its top two hitters (Beltre and Green).

[/ QUOTE ]

The Giants lineup will not be better this year than last. They are all a year older, and if Bonds' gets hurt they have a chance to be really terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well no [censored]. If Gagne gets hurt, the Dodgers will have trouble closing games.

[/ QUOTE ]

"Closing games" isn't nearly as important as hitting. Bonds means WAY more to the Giants than any of the Dodgers's players means to the Dodgers.

[sam h]

[ QUOTE ]
Oakland and LA will not only not blow, but they will also have a very good chance to win their divisions.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oakland will blow relative to their usual performance, despite what all the Beane-freaks say, and finish a distant second or third behind the Angels. Claiming they won't drop off this year has become the new black. The problem is that its not all about the Big Three breaking up - they have troubles on offense too, ones that Jason Kendall isn't fixing.

LA should also limp to about .500 and finish third behind the Padres and Giants. When you just won the division and expectations are high, that is what I call b(Lowe)ing. Kudos to them for getting rid of Green though.

[tbach24]

[ QUOTE ]
And first half numbers are just as relevant as second half numbers.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is somewhat untrue. Green still sucks though.

[jesusarenque]

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The G-Men will be the best of that division. Bonds is SO good. It's ridiculous. I also think the addition of Alou will make him get more pitches. Schmidt is the best pitcher in the NL (him or Sheets) and Benitez is really good. Top 5 RP.

[/ QUOTE ]

The Giants are going to be really bad. The NL West is a two-horse race between the Dodgers and Padres. The Dodgers could run away with it.

[/ QUOTE ]

You, my friend, have no idea about baseball. Dodgers lineup is extemely weak once you get past the first 4 spots. Penny is an injury risk and the #5 spot of the rotation will be a nightmare.

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh, no. The Dodgers' lineup is weak? Have you seen the clowns (Bonds not included) the Giants are going to run out there? They should rename the team the SF AARPs.

[/ QUOTE ]


1. Durham &gt; Izturis
2. Vizquel = Werth
3. Snow &lt; Drew
4. Bonds &gt; Kent
5. Alou &gt; Bradley
6. Alfonzo &gt; Choi
7. Grissom &gt; Valentin
8. Matheny = Ross or the other dude

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't believe that you actually posted this. Do you realize that

1. you are comparing players that don't play the same position,

2. this matters, and

3. the difference between one set of two players isn't the same as the difference between another two players?

Aside from that, you aren't even correct in your faulty analogy. You have little knowledge of what makes a good baseball player.

[tolbiny]

"wright was the better SP pickup by the yankees"

Wright is a headcase- there is at least a 30% chance of him imploding in NY this year. The braves have a history of resurecting talent pictchers with confidence probelms... but they let wright go wihtout much fuss after he showed improvement. Why? i would bet that they know something we don't. If Wright starts out badly in NY and they boo him it could destroy his whole season.

The most improved team (in terms of wins + the possiblilty of postseason) The Cleveland Indians.
The Indians startd off atrociously last year, made a midseason run to come within 1 game, collapsed, and then finished strong over the last 10. They have upgraded their bullpen- simply by having Howry and Wickman for the whole year, Scott Saurback is also there and he has a solid track record. Millwood has a good shot at being the free agent pick up of the year- they upgraded 3 rd base with Aaron boone, but have questions at short with 2 essential rookies fighting over the spot.
Their outfield has an opening- but with plenty of young (and one old) players who can contibute. They will likely end up in 2nd to the twins, but have a solid shot at beating them if they are close late in the season.
If they end up in the playoffs their front three of Millwood, Westbrook and Sabathia should match up well enough to give them a shot at winning a 5 game series. Best case scenario for the tribe- getting knocked out of the ALCS by boston or the Yanks-
worst case.... 75-87.

[tbach24]

AL East: Sox
AL Central: Twins
AL West: Angels (1st seed)
Wild Card: Yankees

NL East: Braves
NL Central: Cardinals (1st seed)
NL West: Padres
Wild Card: Astros

AL MVP: Ramirez
AL Cy Young: Santana
NL MVP: Bonds
NL Cy Young: Sheets

Sox vs. Twins- Sox
Angels vs. Yankees- Yankees
Cards vs. Astros- Cards
Padres vs. Braves- Padres
Sox vs. Yankees- Sox
Cards vs. Padres- Cards
Sox vs. Cards- Sox
WS MVP- Ortiz
The more things change, the more they stay the same...

[sam h]

[ QUOTE ]
Average != special

[/ QUOTE ]

Indeed it does when its your fifth starter and he's giving you 200 innings.

[BWebb]

[ QUOTE ]
Los Angeles has likely the best defense in baseball, while San Franciso, uh, doesn't come close with my man Barry showing as much mobility as the Lincoln Memorial. Dodgers allowed only 4.2 R/G while SF allowed 4.75. The difference in ERA isn't as much - only .3 runs - which shows the difference in defense.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hence the additions of Vizquel and Matheny. And with what Bonds brings to the plate, he wouldn't have to move a single foot and he would still be the MVP.

[jesusarenque]

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</font><blockquote><font class="small">En respuesta a:</font><hr />
Los Angeles has likely the best defense in baseball, while San Franciso, uh, doesn't come close with my man Barry showing as much mobility as the Lincoln Memorial. Dodgers allowed only 4.2 R/G while SF allowed 4.75. The difference in ERA isn't as much - only .3 runs - which shows the difference in defense.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hence the additions of Vizquel and Matheny. And with what Bonds brings to the plate, he wouldn't have to move a single foot and he would still be the MVP.

[/ QUOTE ]

You do realize that Vizquel and Matheny are bad players, don't you?

[BWebb]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The G-Men will be the best of that division. Bonds is SO good. It's ridiculous. I also think the addition of Alou will make him get more pitches. Schmidt is the best pitcher in the NL (him or Sheets) and Benitez is really good. Top 5 RP.

[/ QUOTE ]

The Giants are going to be really bad. The NL West is a two-horse race between the Dodgers and Padres. The Dodgers could run away with it.

[/ QUOTE ]

You, my friend, have no idea about baseball. Dodgers lineup is extemely weak once you get past the first 4 spots. Penny is an injury risk and the #5 spot of the rotation will be a nightmare.

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh, no. The Dodgers' lineup is weak? Have you seen the clowns (Bonds not included) the Giants are going to run out there? They should rename the team the SF AARPs.

[/ QUOTE ]


1. Durham &gt; Izturis
2. Vizquel = Werth
3. Snow &lt; Drew
4. Bonds &gt; Kent
5. Alou &gt; Bradley
6. Alfonzo &gt; Choi
7. Grissom &gt; Valentin
8. Matheny = Ross or the other dude

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't believe that you actually posted this. Do you realize that

1. you are comparing players that don't play the same position,

2. this matters, and

3. the difference between one set of two players isn't the same as the difference between another two players?

Aside from that, you aren't even correct in your faulty analogy. You have little knowledge of what makes a good baseball player.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wasn't comparing players, I was comparing the batting orders. The Giants top 3 will have a high OBP than the Dodgers. Edge: Giants. Then compare the middle of the lineup Edge: Giants. Then compare the bottom of the lineup, Edge: Giants. Nowhere in the batting order do the Dodgers have an advantage over the Giants. Nowhere.

[jesusarenque]

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The G-Men will be the best of that division. Bonds is SO good. It's ridiculous. I also think the addition of Alou will make him get more pitches. Schmidt is the best pitcher in the NL (him or Sheets) and Benitez is really good. Top 5 RP.

[/ QUOTE ]

The Giants are going to be really bad. The NL West is a two-horse race between the Dodgers and Padres. The Dodgers could run away with it.

[/ QUOTE ]

You, my friend, have no idea about baseball. Dodgers lineup is extemely weak once you get past the first 4 spots. Penny is an injury risk and the #5 spot of the rotation will be a nightmare.

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh, no. The Dodgers' lineup is weak? Have you seen the clowns (Bonds not included) the Giants are going to run out there? They should rename the team the SF AARPs.

[/ QUOTE ]


1. Durham &gt; Izturis
2. Vizquel = Werth
3. Snow &lt; Drew
4. Bonds &gt; Kent
5. Alou &gt; Bradley
6. Alfonzo &gt; Choi
7. Grissom &gt; Valentin
8. Matheny = Ross or the other dude

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't believe that you actually posted this. Do you realize that

1. you are comparing players that don't play the same position,

2. this matters, and

3. the difference between one set of two players isn't the same as the difference between another two players?

Aside from that, you aren't even correct in your faulty analogy. You have little knowledge of what makes a good baseball player.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wasn't comparing players, I was comparing the batting orders. The Giants top 3 will have a high OBP than the Dodgers. Edge: Giants. Then compare the middle of the lineup Edge: Giants. Then compare the bottom of the lineup, Edge: Giants. Nowhere in the batting order do the Dodgers have an advantage over the Giants. Nowhere.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you can't see why your analysis is so poor I'm not going to waste my time explaining it to you.

Buy this book:

www.baseballprospectus.com (http://www.baseballprospectus.com)

[tolbiny]

"You do realize that Vizquel and Matheny are bad players, don't you?"

what are you smoking? Vizquel bad? unless by bad you mean better than average. He is no longer the goldglover of his prime, but he is still better defensively than 70% of shortstops, and hit .290 last year. he is also a damn fine clubhouse presence, and always plays hard.

[jesusarenque]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En respuesta a:</font><hr />
"You do realize that Vizquel and Matheny are bad players, don't you?"

what are you smoking? Vizquel bad? unless by bad you mean better than average. He is no longer the goldglover of his prime, but he is still better defensively than 70% of shortstops, and hit .290 last year. he is also a damn fine clubhouse presence, and always plays hard.

[/ QUOTE ]

Vizquel is pushing 40. He is not nearly as good defensively as his reputation, and he has never been a particularly good offensive player. He can only go down from here. For future reference, if you are trying to convince me of a player's offensive ability, do not use batting average.

[DangerGoodson]

[ QUOTE ]
WTF, where did that avatar come from?

[/ QUOTE ]
Lost a bet to clarkmeister

[ThaSaltCracka]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
WTF, where did that avatar come from?

[/ QUOTE ]
Lost a bet to clarkmeister

[/ QUOTE ]that muthafucka, stealing my avatar idea, oh well, he used it for GoT as well.

[BWebb]

Dude, if it isn't obvious the Giants have the better lineup, than I don't know what else to say. The Giants scored 90 more runs than the Dodgers did last year. The Giants had a team OPS of .795 compared to the Dodgers .755. What changes did the two teams make. The Giants replace Michael Tucker, Deivi Cruz and AJ Prezenski (sp?) with Moises Alou, Omar Vizquel and Mike Matheny. That is at least a push, but I think it is an obvious improvement. The Dodgers, on the other hand, replaced Adrian Beltre, Shawn Green and Steve Finley with Jeff Kent, Hei Sop Choi and JD Drew. That is an obvious decline. I don't think I can make it any simplier than that. I don't need baseballprospectus to tell me that.

[ThaSaltCracka]

anyone who argues LA has a solid offense is dellusion and quite wrong, sorry. SF wins solely because of Barry.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]

You know what draws a lot of fans? Winning.

And first half numbers are just as relevant as second half numbers. Quit cherrypicking everything to try to make him look better than he is.

[/ QUOTE ]

Point taken.

[jesusarenque]

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Dude, if it isn't obvious the Giants have the better lineup, than I don't know what else to say. The Giants scored 90 more runs than the Dodgers did last year. The Giants had a team OPS of .795 compared to the Dodgers .755. What changes did the two teams make. The Giants replace Michael Tucker, Deivi Cruz and AJ Prezenski (sp?) with Moises Alou, Omar Vizquel and Mike Matheny. That is at least a push, but I think it is an obvious improvement. The Dodgers, on the other hand, replaced Adrian Beltre, Shawn Green and Steve Finley with Jeff Kent, Hei Sop Choi and JD Drew. That is an obvious decline. I don't think I can make it any simplier than that. I don't need baseballprospectus to tell me that.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't say the Dodgers had the better lineup. I said your analysis was faulty, which it was.

[DesertCat]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
(addition of Kendall, and improvements from Chavez, Crosby, Swisher, and with the Ginter/Ellis platoon at second)

[/ QUOTE ]

Look at the names you listed. Quite frankly, they suck. Compare those names to any other lineup in the AL West. They are a young (as always) team, with some potential. The BEST they can do this year is be in the shadow of Texas' young bashers. Texiera Blalock and Soriano all eat those guys for lunch in terms of playing.

Beltre, Sexson, Vlad, G. Anderson etc. are monsters compared to what Oakland has. And for the first time, their pitching doesnt give them any benfit of the doubt.

Their bullpen could aspire to be as good as Anaheim's pen.

Oakland has no chance of winning this division.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you are partially confused by teams that have good hitting parks vs. teams in pitching parks like Oaklands.


2004 OPS+
Gintner 112
Soriano 98
Soriano fell off the face of the earth last year. His raw stats still look good because he plays in a launching pad. Even though Soriano should rebound, with an Ellis/Ginter platoon the A's 2nd base production should be much better than last year, and on par with Sorianos.

Crosby 91
Young 106
Cabrera 79
Young is very good, but you can argue since he's at his career peak, and Crosby is 3 years younger, that Bobby may pass him this year.

Blalock 111
Chavez 132
Beltre 163
Blalock is young with great potential, but isn't even an above average 3B yet. Beltre's year last year among best ever. But he hasn't done it as long as Chavez, so reversion to the mean predicts they will be neck and neck as two best 3rd basemen in the league.

Teixeira 128
Durazo 136
Teixeira is younger and should be getting better as Durazo declines. But 2005 production should be similar.

Garret Anderson 105
Kotsay 114
Garret may be done. He's only had two good seasons, and his injury problems may be serious. Swisher and Byrnes will also probably out-hit him.

Kendall 110
Molina 86
Barajas 78
This is where the A's have made their major upgrade. They went from worst to best AL West catcher by far.

If you look at Oakland's offense, it's greatly upgraded at Catcher, 2nd, and Outfield (Swisher over Dye).

But the real reason why they can be competitive is their pitching. Zito and Harden were two of the AL's best starters last year. Joe Blanton, Danny Haren, Dan Meyer, and Huston Street are all among the top young pitchers in baseball. The question is how much can they contribute this year. John Sickels rates Meyer and Street A-, and Blanton B+. Haren already pitched for St. Louis last year. Oakland may still have the best rotation in the West this year. If not, they will be the best in the entire AL when these guys mature. No other team in the west has any prospects that can match them.

[nothumb]

[ QUOTE ]
Schilling, Clement, Wells, Arroyo, Miller.

[/ QUOTE ]

Realistically this should go
Schilling
Wells
Clement
Miller
Arroyo

...if everyone is healthy. But I agree, this lineup, plus Wakefield, is tough, and deep.

NT

[BWebb]

[ QUOTE ]
Uh, no. The Dodgers' lineup is weak? Have you seen the clowns (Bonds not included) the Giants are going to run out there? They should rename the team the SF AARPs.

[/ QUOTE ]

This looks a lot like you saying the Dodgers have a better lineup.

[jesusarenque]

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Uh, no. The Dodgers' lineup is weak? Have you seen the clowns (Bonds not included) the Giants are going to run out there? They should rename the team the SF AARPs.

[/ QUOTE ]

This looks a lot like you saying the Dodgers have a better lineup.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm saying the Dodgers' lineup is weak, but outside of Bonds, so is the Giants'. The Dodgers finished ahead of the Giants last year, and I think the Giants have done nothing to pass the Dodgers. The Giants' hitters are all old, and none of them (Bonds exluded) is likely to improve. Again, if Bonds goes down, the Giants could be terrible. The Dodgers don't rely on any one player like the Giants do. The Dodgers did lose Beltre, but they added Drew. JD is one of the very best players in the game when healthy.

[DesertCat]

[ QUOTE ]


1. Durham &gt; Izturis
2. Vizquel = Werth
3. Snow &lt; Drew
4. Bonds &gt; Kent
5. Alou &gt; Bradley
6. Alfonzo &gt; Choi
7. Grissom &gt; Valentin
8. Matheny = Ross or the other dude

[/ QUOTE ]

2004 OPS+
Durham 115
Izturis 88

Visquel 95
Werth 115

Snow 144
Drew 158

Bonds 260
Kent 124

Alou 128
Bradley 108

Alfonzo 93
Choi 116

Grissom 95
Valentin 88

Matheny 67
Ross 44

Totals:
Giants 997
Dodgers 841

This was a fun exercise, but it's really unfair to the Dodgers. First, every single Giant is older than every single Dodger in this comparison. And even more, most of the Dodgers are younger than their peak performance ages, while the giants are all way older. This means you should expect all of the Giants to have worse years than last year, while all the Dodgers should have as good or better years than last.

And injuries should hurt the Giants more. JT Snow had a fluky career best OPS+ at age 37, and he only played 107 games (which is still better than he's done two out the last three years). The Giant's best hitters simply won't play as many games as the Dodgers best hitters. Only if Barry stays healthy the entire year, will the Giants have an edge in offense.

But the Dodger defense will be much better than the Giants. They have one of the best defensive outfields, the Giants have three statues. Kent has one of the best zone ratings of any 2B, and Izturiz might be the best shortstop.

So I think Offense+Defense is close, so it will all come down to pitching. The Dodger bullpen is certainly better, it got better last year even after trading Mota. But they don't have anyone like Schmidt in the starting rotation. Who knows what Lowe and Penny will do. If they are both great, the Dodgers win going away. If they suck, and Bonds is healthy, he makes another run at a ring.

[BWebb]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Uh, no. The Dodgers' lineup is weak? Have you seen the clowns (Bonds not included) the Giants are going to run out there? They should rename the team the SF AARPs.

[/ QUOTE ]

This looks a lot like you saying the Dodgers have a better lineup.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm saying the Dodgers' lineup is weak, but outside of Bonds, so is the Giants'. The Dodgers finished ahead of the Giants last year, and I think the Giants have done nothing to pass the Dodgers. The Giants' hitters are all old, and none of them (Bonds exluded) is likely to improve. Again, if Bonds goes down, the Giants could be terrible. The Dodgers don't rely on any one player like the Giants do. The Dodgers did lose Beltre, but they added Drew. JD is one of the very best players in the game when healthy.

[/ QUOTE ]

What are you talking about??? The Dodgers won the division by one game. Since then, the Giants added Benitez (stastically the best NL closer last year, look it up) to improve the bullpen, Alou to improve the offense and Matheny and Vizquel to improve the defense. The Dodgers lost their top three hitters from last year (not including DeLuca) and Mota from the bullpen. The players they replaced them with are not as good. I think with those changes, the Giants can make up one game. I'd predict they beat the Dodgers by at least 6 games this year in the standings. This "Bonds is the only good player" argument has been going on for year. In the meantime, the Giants have the 3rd best record in the history of baseball since 1997.

[DesertCat]

[ QUOTE ]


Green was a great person to have in the clubhouse, he drew a lot of fans, and his second half numbers were spectacular.

[/ QUOTE ]

Shawn Green OPS +
2004 113
2003 117

Those are horrible numbers for a right fielder who can't field, or even a first basemen who can. He hasn't been the same since his shoulder injury. This is example #1 of why the DBacks made the worst deals of the offseason, they could have got the same production from Burnitz for a fraction of the cost.

This is also why signing Richie Sexson was one of the worst off season moves. If his performance declines or he misses any significant time, it's a disaster. Even if he returns to form, they overpaid for an okay hitting 1B. He's never hit anywhere near as well as Delgado for instance. And they gave up two high draft picks to sign him!

[DesertCat]

[ QUOTE ]
The Dodgers lost their top three hitters from last year (not including DeLuca) and Mota from the bullpen. The players they replaced them with are not as good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Deluca collapsed playing for the Marlins. The bullpen (Brazoban et al) pitched just as well after Mota left. JD Drew is dramatically better than Green, both in hitting and defense. Choi is a much better hitter than Green. Kent is a much better hitter than Cora.

Remember the Dodgers also started Encarnacion &amp; Roberts half the season, who were two of the worst hitting outfielders in the MLB. Upgrading to Werth from them is huge.

Deluca was an above average catcher and they'll miss his first half performances (but not his horrible second half collapses, and not at the salary the Marlins gave him). And obviously they lose a lot with Beltre. But the upgrades they made at all other positions should more than make up for a single player who may or may not repeat his one great season.

[blindu]

i have another important question. does anyone forsee a 2005 version of johann santana coming out of nowhere?

the dbacks though, wow. i feel ashamed to be a fan of theres. gargiola jr. has made some bad calls in the past (giving our entire god damn team for richie sexon), but these new ones are just atrocious. shawn green? wooooow. neato. the russ ortiz thing almost made me vomit though. really. i just wish things were like...oh i dont know...2001 again? back then we had a good team with a few stars here and there, but mainly alot of small contributions. before last year started though, we found it neccesary to give up our infield for richy sexon, who ended up getting injured-- on a check swing. at least the suns are doing well...

but yeah, i dont remember who said it, but whoever said that the braves were terrible this year is either 1. uninformed or 2.actually has a brain tumor. the braves have owned that division since the early 90's, and their going to continue owning it. also, yankees offseason deals are overated. yes, i am bias, and i hate them with a passion. but i dont care. as bad the calls oakland may have made, the AL west is still the best up and down division. last year was amazing. 3 teams going in and out of 1'st place up until the last game of the season. that is thrilling. also last year, the NL west (except arizona and colorado) was very exciting. barry bonds (i frankly do not care whether he does steroids) is the best player since ted williams to play the game. but, the giants arn't too great a team in general. adding alou in the 4 spot is nice and all...and while their hoping that he will put up a 30-40 homerun season while bonds watches him from 1'st base, i dont see it happening. bonds though, is just amazing. him and shaq have this effect on their respective game that is just amazing. pitchers and managers will change entire gameplans around this guy. its fun to watch. the dodgers made some good deals as well. adding dlow was fine, but their other additions were good. both the redsox and yankees will make the post season (obviously?) but im not quite sure who will win the division and who will take the wild card. one team i will be rooting for is the twins. their the exact converse of the yankees and i love it. santana is (sorry rj, your off my team now, i dont give a damn) better then any pitcher on the yankees staff.
anyway though, heres how i see it:
nl west: dodgers
nl east: braves
nl central: cardinals
nl wildcard: giants

al west: rangers
al central: twins
al east: sox/yankees
al wildcard: sox/yankees

[Shajen]

I love all the Braves haters in this thread.


Every year you guys come out and say they are gonna suck and every year they win their division.

/images/graemlins/blush.gif

[tbach24]

I'm not sure I understand why Wells will be ahead of Clement in the rotation. Anyone care to shed the light?

[BWebb]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The Dodgers lost their top three hitters from last year (not including DeLuca) and Mota from the bullpen. The players they replaced them with are not as good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Deluca collapsed playing for the Marlins. The bullpen (Brazoban et al) pitched just as well after Mota left. JD Drew is dramatically better than Green, both in hitting and defense. Choi is a much better hitter than Green. Kent is a much better hitter than Cora.

Remember the Dodgers also started Encarnacion &amp; Roberts half the season, who were two of the worst hitting outfielders in the MLB. Upgrading to Werth from them is huge.

Deluca was an above average catcher and they'll miss his first half performances (but not his horrible second half collapses, and not at the salary the Marlins gave him). And obviously they lose a lot with Beltre. But the upgrades they made at all other positions should more than make up for a single player who may or may not repeat his one great season.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't write off DeLuca because he had a tough 2nd half. The Dodgers wouldn't have been in first place at the time of the trade without him. Also, even with his rough 2nd half he is far better than Ross or that rookie. You are also comparing Drew to Green when in reality he is replacing Finley. I'd say those are close to even players, with a slight edge going to Drew. Also, there is no way you can say Choi is better than Green. I'd have to call that a push. Kent is an obvious upgrade over Cora, but not defensively. Finally, the drop off to Valentin from Beltre is huge. It would be like replacing Bonds with Tucker. All in all, the Dodgers stayed even at best. In no way can one really say they improved themselves this winter. Anyway, it's fun arguing, but I can't wait for opening day.

[tbach24]

[ QUOTE ]
DeLuca

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you guys talking about Paul Lo Duca? Is this some type of nickname for him?

[BWebb]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
DeLuca

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you guys talking about Paul Lo Duca? Is this some type of nickname for him?

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL. Don't ask me why I was calling him DeLuca. LoDuca is who I was talking about.

[boedeker]

i love how all the braves haters claim that nobody can replace who they had before, same old line we have been hearing for the past 10 years.

sheffield
lopez
maddux
glavin
brian jordan the first time

don't deny shuerholz.

[DesertCat]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
DeLuca

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you guys talking about Paul Lo Duca? Is this some type of nickname for him?

[/ QUOTE ]

The manager of the Marlins, Jack McKeon (hope I at least spelled that right) kept calling him Deluca when he came over. Jack's like 76 years old, but it was funny and now I can't stop using it, even unintentionally.

[tbach24]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
DeLuca

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you guys talking about Paul Lo Duca? Is this some type of nickname for him?

[/ QUOTE ]

The manager of the Marlins, Jack McKeon (hope I at least spelled that right) kept calling him Deluca when he came over. Jack's like 76 years old, but it was funny and now I can't stop using it, even unintentionally.

[/ QUOTE ]

HAHAHAHAHHAHA. That's awesome. I think he's primed for a good season (I hope so, got him ilke 14th round).

[DesertCat]

[ QUOTE ]

You can't write off DeLuca because he had a tough 2nd half. The Dodgers wouldn't have been in first place at the time of the trade without him. Also, even with his rough 2nd half he is far better than Ross or that rookie. You are also comparing Drew to Green when in reality he is replacing Finley. I'd say those are close to even players, with a slight edge going to Drew. Also, there is no way you can say Choi is better than Green. I'd have to call that a push. Kent is an obvious upgrade over Cora, but not defensively. Finally, the drop off to Valentin from Beltre is huge. It would be like replacing Bonds with Tucker. All in all, the Dodgers stayed even at best. In no way can one really say they improved themselves this winter. Anyway, it's fun arguing, but I can't wait for opening day.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lo Duca had 2HR after Aug 1, and hit something like .210 after Aug. 15, he was actually outhit by the Dodgers platoon during that time. He's a big reason why the Marlins missed the playoffs, the Dodgers dumped him just in time. His career OPS is 840 pre-all star break, 683 post all star break. It's his standard MO to collapse in August. But you are right, they'll miss his pre-allstar AB's.

2004 OPS+
Drew 158
Finley 110
They are not even close. And Drew is a good defensive player, Finley, while he looks good making shoe-top grabs, annually has one of the worst zone ratings for outfielders.

Look at these two other guys
Encarnacion 84
Roberts 85
These two stiffs stunk up 600 AB's for the dodgers last year. And they are now gone.

Green 113
Choi 116
Green is 32 and has been in sharp decline for two years. Choi is 26 and should still improve.

Kent's zone rating has been excellent, and even if he was a bad defender, his bat will produce many more runs than Coras glove could save.

Valentin's career OPS is 773, but he hits 583 against lefthanders, and 826 against right. Kent hit 871 against lefties last year, so a Kent/Valentin platoon at 3rd would mitigage some of beltres loss. The rest is coming from huge upgrades in the outfield and from Kent's AB's at second.

The Dodgers scored 761 runs in 2004. Do you want to bet on whether they'll score more in 2005?

[cbragado]

you're speaking of last year. LA lost a potential gold glover in Beltre and now have Jeff Kent at Second. Losing Beltre is bad and adding Kent to second base forces Isturis to carry the defensive slack.

[B00T]

I appreciate your long drawn out reasoning and pulling whatever facts you can to support Oakland being able to stand up to the Angels.

BUT

[ QUOTE ]
Teixeira is younger and should be getting better as Durazo declines. But 2005 production should be similar.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you truely stand by this statement no reasonal debate could be had.

When comparing all these players 1 on 1, I find it funny that you will pull out Kendall to comapre to crapola Molina, but at the same time you conveinently leave the MVP of the league out of being compared to anyone.

But in all honesty, I liked your analysis but just did not find it credible in the arguement you are trying to make.

And for anyone who wants to bet that Oakland finished above 500 (82 wins) please PM me. I was doing it to illustrate my point. I'll accept one or two bets, but do not want $4000 in bets tied up on one thing.

CDC, Nolanfan?

[Jack of Arcades]

You're far underrating Kent, who's very good defensively. Also, JD Drew is a centerfield caliber glove.

[Jack of Arcades]

No, he's correct. The Giants are most likely going to finish below .500. Their pitching is overall fairly bad, and it isn't helped by the fact that they have nearly no defense whatsoever. Snow is good, Matheny is great, Durham is fine when healthy. Then in the outfield, they have three very nice decorations.

They have a nice offense, mostly because Bonds hits like Jesus. He'll probably propel them to an above average offense, maybe even top 5 NL. However, their pitching+defense will not be pretty at all.

The Dodger offense took a slight hit, but Drew and Kent are both pretty good defensively and offensively. The NL West should be the least competetive division with LA getting 90+, the Pads creeping past .500, maybe, and everyone else looking on silently.

[Jack of Arcades]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
190 innings of league average pitching is very very special.

[/ QUOTE ]

Average != special

[/ QUOTE ]

Distribution of talent is not on a bell curve, where you have a few bad players, a few good players, and a bunch of average players. It is made up of a cluster of player somewhere around 20% below average, with increasing representation to around 20% above average, then a lot of outliers, ie "superstars."

Furthermore, starting is a good bit harder than relieving, so Wakefield was in all actuality slightly above average. But keep in mind, "average" is far from "middle" - the "median" ERA was overall a lot worse.

And remember, we're talking *190 innings.* To better illustrate my point, only 86 players qualified for the ERA title last year (162 innings, 16 decisions) compared to the 632 pitchers that threw innings. Less than that had an average or better ERA. It's pretty close to, say, 63. So, once accounting for relievers, Wakefield was probably in the top 15% of all pitchers, value-wise. That's not special?

[Jack of Arcades]

If by "somewhat" you mean very very very very slightly more important than, yes, you're right. However, people have a tendency to put far too much importance on the 2nd half and outright dismiss the first half.

[Jack of Arcades]

SF's improvement is not as obvious as you think.

Alou's 38, and is a decent improvement on the right field from last year. However, he is much older and should have a healthy decline.

Vizquel's 38, and is a very slight improvement if one at all over Cruz.

Matheny's just plain bad, he's 34, which is the magic number for catchers. He's essentially the definition of offensive black hole and he should be horrible.

It's important to note that Green was a below average player last year. He has little to no defensive value, and his hitting is replacable. It's not that hard to find a left-fielder or first baseman to put up a similar line, because the market is flooded with guys that can hit a little and can't field a lick. Do not be surprised if Choi outperforms Green.

Jeff Kent is going to be 37, but he's still one of the best 2B in baseball.

JD Drew had a breakout year last year, the kind everyone knew he could have. He's also very much better than Finley.

Beltre is the one player of any consequence that the Dodgers lost, but it's not an "obvious decline." Especially when you factor in the defensive improvements.

[hoyaboy1]

[ QUOTE ]
i have another important question. does anyone forsee a 2005 version of johann santana coming out of nowhere?

[/ QUOTE ]

Santana didn't come out of nowhere. It was quite obvious that once he pitched a full season as a starter he would be nasty.

[Myrtle]

[ QUOTE ]
Look for the Yanks to win the AL East by 5 games at least and to beat the Red Sox either in the ALCS or the ALDS.

[/ QUOTE ]

.....uh

How do you figure the Sox &amp; Yanks to match up in the ALDS?

/images/graemlins/confused.gif

[jesusarenque]

[ QUOTE ]
No, he's correct. The Giants are most likely going to finish below .500. Their pitching is overall fairly bad, and it isn't helped by the fact that they have nearly no defense whatsoever. Snow is good, Matheny is great, Durham is fine when healthy. Then in the outfield, they have three very nice decorations.

They have a nice offense, mostly because Bonds hits like Jesus. He'll probably propel them to an above average offense, maybe even top 5 NL. However, their pitching+defense will not be pretty at all.

The Dodger offense took a slight hit, but Drew and Kent are both pretty good defensively and offensively. The NL West should be the least competetive division with LA getting 90+, the Pads creeping past .500, maybe, and everyone else looking on silently.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are crazy, man. Don't you know that SF's "proven veterans" will provide the chemistry and clubhouse leadership to propel them to the top? In fact, SF has so much veteran leadership that I predict they will win 165 regular season games.

[cbragado]

Kent's got a strong arm at second base. It's his range that is in question. Yes, JD Drew is good defensively when healthy. We'll see how healthy he is.

But in comparison with the Giants, the infield for the Dodgers is quite worse than the Giants infield. The Giants have a couple gold glovers in the outfield as well - Bonds, Grissom...

[Benholio]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
190 innings of league average pitching is very very special.

[/ QUOTE ]

Average != special

[/ QUOTE ]

Distribution of talent is not on a bell curve, where you have a few bad players, a few good players, and a bunch of average players. It is made up of a cluster of player somewhere around 20% below average, with increasing representation to around 20% above average, then a lot of outliers, ie "superstars."

Furthermore, starting is a good bit harder than relieving, so Wakefield was in all actuality slightly above average. But keep in mind, "average" is far from "middle" - the "median" ERA was overall a lot worse.

And remember, we're talking *190 innings.* To better illustrate my point, only 86 players qualified for the ERA title last year (162 innings, 16 decisions) compared to the 632 pitchers that threw innings. Less than that had an average or better ERA. It's pretty close to, say, 63. So, once accounting for relievers, Wakefield was probably in the top 15% of all pitchers, value-wise. That's not special?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, to me, a pitcher with a near-5 ERA that pitches a ton of innings is just an innings eater. A horse. He is definately useful for the team and for the rotation. Its nice to have someone who can eat that many innings. I just can't realy consider him to be "very very special" with his mediocre numbers.

[jesusarenque]

[ QUOTE ]
The Giants have a couple gold glovers in the outfield as well - Bonds, Grissom...

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh, yeah. The Giants might have the worst defensive outfield in the league.

[Jack of Arcades]

When you account for Fenway, the league average ERA was 4.87, the same as his ERA.

Would you feel differently if he did in Seattle with a 4.31 ERA?

[Jack of Arcades]

Bonds was once the greatest defensive left fielder of all time. Now he's one of the worst defensive players in the league. The Giants defense, especially the outfield, is historically bad.

[jesusarenque]

[ QUOTE ]
Bonds was once the greatest defensive left fielder of all time. Now he's one of the worst defensive players in the league. The Giants defense, especially the outfield, is historically bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. I just read that Bonds will undergo a second surgery. This could be a very long year for the Giants.

[BWebb]

[ QUOTE ]
SF's improvement is not as obvious as you think.

Alou's 38, and is a decent improvement on the right field from last year. However, he is much older and should have a healthy decline.


Jeff Kent is going to be 37, but he's still one of the best 2B in baseball.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is comical. I love how you bash Alou and Vizquel for being old at 38 then say Kent is great at 37. Let's compare Kent and Alou from last year:

Alou 39 hr, 106 rbi, .293 BA, .919 OPS
Kent 27 hr, 107 rbi, .289 BA, .880 OPS

Alou was better than Kent last year and one year difference in age isn't a difference at all.
[ QUOTE ]

Vizquel's 38, and is a very slight improvement if one at all over Cruz.


[/ QUOTE ]

Cruz was great offensively last year, a huge surprise. But Vizquel is still better defensively and the difference offensively is not that great.

[ QUOTE ]

Matheny's just plain bad, he's 34, which is the magic number for catchers. He's essentially the definition of offensive black hole and he should be horrible.


[/ QUOTE ]

The game isn't about offense only. He is the best catcher working with a pitching staff. Look at what happened when he cut his hand going into the playoffs a few years back. The Cards went to crap. Also, saying Kent is great defensively is hysterical. He has NO range. He's great at the plate, but he has very little defensive ability.

However, I will say this Bonds stuff sucks, but I think he will be okay.

[jesusarenque]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
SF's improvement is not as obvious as you think.

Alou's 38, and is a decent improvement on the right field from last year. However, he is much older and should have a healthy decline.


Jeff Kent is going to be 37, but he's still one of the best 2B in baseball.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is comical. I love how you bash Alou and Vizquel for being old at 38 then say Kent is great at 37. Let's compare Kent and Alou from last year:

Alou 39 hr, 106 rbi, .293 BA, .919 OPS
Kent 27 hr, 107 rbi, .289 BA, .880 OPS

Alou was better than Kent last year and one year difference in age isn't a difference at all.
[ QUOTE ]

Vizquel's 38, and is a very slight improvement if one at all over Cruz.


[/ QUOTE ]

Cruz was great offensively last year, a huge surprise. But Vizquel is still better defensively and the difference offensively is not that great.

[ QUOTE ]

Matheny's just plain bad, he's 34, which is the magic number for catchers. He's essentially the definition of offensive black hole and he should be horrible.


[/ QUOTE ]

The game isn't about offense only. He is the best catcher working with a pitching staff. Look at what happened when he cut his hand going into the playoffs a few years back. The Cards went to crap. Also, saying Kent is great defensively is hysterical. He has NO range. He's great at the plate, but he has very little defensive ability.

However, I will say this Bonds stuff sucks, but I think he will be okay.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have no idea what you are talking about.

[ThaSaltCracka]

The Giants basically did what the M's did last year; they got older.

[Dead]

Just to re-emphasize.

Yankees will win it all.

-Dead

[Jack of Arcades]

[ QUOTE ]
This is comical. I love how you bash Alou and Vizquel for being old at 38 then say Kent is great at 37

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh boy. Let us go over what I said.

[ QUOTE ]
Alou's 38, and is a decent improvement on the right field from last year. However, he is much older and should have a healthy decline.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let me rephrase this.

Alou is going into his age 38 season. He is a decent improvement over Michael Tucker last year offensively. However, while he was a very nice hitter last year, he is much older than what the Giants employed in right field last year and should experience a downturn of his stats.

[ QUOTE ]
Vizquel's 38, and is a very slight improvement if one at all over Cruz.

[/ QUOTE ]

Omar Vizquel, 38, replaces Devi Cruz, 32. While neither are particularly good, there is a chance Vizquel is slightly better than Devi. However, he is 6 years older, which means it's a likely no.

[ QUOTE ]
Jeff Kent is going to be 37, but he's still one of the best 2B in baseball.

[/ QUOTE ]

Jeff Kent is going to be 37 next season, however, despite the fact that he is going to be 37 last season, he was still the 2nd best player at his position last year, while Alou and Vizquel were nowhere near close to this. Please take note I have said that Kent is going to be great despite his age.

Also, please take note that the only thing comical in your post is your ludicrous statement that

[ QUOTE ]
Alou was better than Kent last year

[/ QUOTE ]

This statement shows you have no clue about the vast difference in offensive talent between the two positions.

The average OPS last year of a Corner OF was .810. The average OPS of a 2B last year was .750. Which, then, is more impressive?

.880/.750
.920/.810

Here's a hint: Kent's line was 18% better, Alou's 13%.

[ QUOTE ]
The game isn't about offense only. He is the best catcher working with a pitching staff.

[/ QUOTE ]

I already noted this.

However, the fact of the matter is that Matheny's offense will be very very bad, to the point where you just can't make it up with defense.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, saying Kent is great defensively is hysterical. He has NO range.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is based on your obvious empirical evidence of... watching him a few times on TV? I dunno.

[DesertCat]

[ QUOTE ]

And injuries should hurt the Giants more. JT Snow had a fluky career best OPS+ at age 37, and he only played 107 games (which is still better than he's done two out the last three years). The Giant's best hitters simply won't play as many games as the Dodgers best hitters. Only if Barry stays healthy the entire year, will the Giants have an edge in offense.


[/ QUOTE ]

It never gets old being soooo right!