Chart -- Chances of being in trouble

[jcm4ccc]

This is a chart I made that I find useful in deciding whether to push. There are probably similar charts out there. Basically, it works like this:

You have A8, with 4 people left to act. What is the chance that someone left to act has A9-AK, or 88-AA (basically, the hands you don't want to be called with). The chance is 27%.

Or, you have 99, with 8 people left to act. What is the chance that someone has TT-AA? (17%)

Sorry I couldn't make the chart look better. You should be able to cut and paste into Excel, if you are interested.

LTA 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
A2 16% 29% 40% 49% 57% 64% 70% 74%
A3 14% 26% 37% 46% 54% 60% 66% 71%
A4 13% 24% 34% 42% 50% 56% 62% 67%
A5 12% 22% 31% 39% 46% 52% 58% 62%
A6 10% 19% 28% 35% 42% 47% 53% 58%
A7 9% 17% 24% 31% 37% 43% 48% 52%
A8 7% 14% 21% 27% 32% 37% 42% 46%
A9 6% 12% 17% 22% 27% 31% 36% 40%
AT 5% 9% 14% 18% 22% 25% 29% 32%
AJ 3% 7% 10% 13% 16% 19% 21% 24%
AQ 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 13% 15%
AK 1% 1% 2% 3% 3% 4% 5% 5%
22 5% 11% 15% 20% 24% 28% 32% 36%
33 5% 10% 14% 18% 23% 26% 30% 34%
44 5% 9% 13% 17% 21% 24% 28% 31%
55 4% 8% 12% 15% 19% 22% 25% 28%
66 4% 7% 10% 14% 17% 20% 23% 26%
77 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% 20% 23%
88 3% 5% 8% 10% 13% 15% 18% 20%
99 2% 4% 7% 9% 11% 13% 15% 17%
TT 2% 4% 5% 7% 9% 10% 12% 14%
JJ 1% 3% 4% 5% 7% 8% 9% 10%
QQ 1% 2% 3% 4% 4% 5% 6% 7%
KK 0% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4%

[1C5]

Very cool,

could you please send me the excel file if you have it?

dougdev@gmail.com

thanks!

[theredpill5]

wow, thank you for sharing. How did you make this ? I'm certainly going to copy this. Is it legitimate ?

[Unarmed]

[ QUOTE ]
Very cool,

could you please send me the excel file if you have it?

dougdev@gmail.com

thanks!

[/ QUOTE ]

Copy, paste, data, text to columns, delimited, space.
DONE! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[1C5]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Very cool,

could you please send me the excel file if you have it?

dougdev@gmail.com

thanks!

[/ QUOTE ]

Copy, paste, data, text to columns, delimited, space.
DONE! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Cool, thank you!!!


No need to send it anymore. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[1C5]

One more question. Do you have the same thing for other hands that we might push near the bubble such as Kx, JTs, etc etc?

[jcm4ccc]

Sorry, made a slight error. Affected the percentages very little, but here's the correct chart:

LTA 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
A2 17% 31% 43% 52% 60% 67% 73% 77% 81%
A3 15% 28% 40% 49% 57% 63% 69% 74% 78%
A4 14% 26% 36% 45% 53% 59% 65% 70% 74%
A5 12% 23% 33% 41% 49% 55% 61% 66% 70%
A6 11% 21% 30% 37% 44% 50% 56% 61% 65%
A7 10% 18% 26% 33% 39% 45% 50% 55% 59%
A8 8% 16% 22% 29% 34% 40% 45% 49% 53%
A9 7% 13% 19% 24% 29% 34% 38% 42% 46%
AT 5% 10% 15% 19% 23% 27% 31% 34% 38%
AJ 4% 7% 11% 14% 17% 20% 23% 26% 29%
AQ 2% 4% 6% 9% 11% 13% 14% 16% 18%
AK 0% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 4%
22 6% 11% 17% 22% 26% 30% 35% 38% 42%
33 5% 10% 15% 20% 24% 28% 32% 36% 39%
44 5% 10% 14% 18% 22% 26% 30% 33% 36%
55 4% 9% 13% 17% 20% 24% 27% 30% 33%
66 4% 8% 11% 15% 18% 21% 24% 27% 30%
77 3% 7% 10% 13% 16% 19% 22% 24% 27%
88 3% 6% 9% 11% 14% 16% 19% 21% 24%
99 2% 5% 7% 9% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%
TT 2% 4% 6% 8% 9% 11% 13% 15% 16%
JJ 1% 3% 4% 6% 7% 8% 10% 11% 12%
QQ 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 8%
KK 0% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 4%

[Hood]

Great chart.

[ QUOTE ]
One more question. Do you have the same thing for other hands that we might push near the bubble such as Kx, JTs, etc etc?

[/ QUOTE ]

I second this.

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
Great chart.

[ QUOTE ]
One more question. Do you have the same thing for other hands that we might push near the bubble such as Kx, JTs, etc etc?

[/ QUOTE ]

I second this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, there is a problem with this. It's deciding what hands you want to use in the analysis.

Let's take K4o. Hands you don't want to see:
K5 - AK
55 - AA
A4
I think also A5 - AQ. Would you agree?

But there's another problem. Why include K5? You don't want to see K5, but whose going to call your push with K5? It seems unlikely. So if I'm pushing with K4o, I'm probably worried about the following hands:

44 - AA
KJ, KQ
A5 - AK

I guess. Perhaps KT also? Other people might have different hands that they would worry about. So it makes it kind of muddy.

I'm open to suggestions. The math is pretty easy to do, once I have the range of hands that I'm concerned about.

[mackthefork]

Yeah I made a chart like this for pushing hands depending upon your level of desperation, mine wasn't quite as comprehensive as yours. Sorry for not posting I just assumed most regulars on here would either have one already or know the percentages off pat.

Regards Mack

Agree with others it is a good chart.

[mackthefork]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm open to suggestions. The math is pretty easy to do, once I have the range of hands that I'm concerned about.

[/ QUOTE ]

Myself I only include hande where you don't have 5 or 6 good outs so for KT I don't want to see AK, KQ, KJ , AT and TT+, you could I suppose include AQ and AJ as well but I could half live with a call from those.

Mack

[stigmata]

That's excellent.

With regard to what Mackthefork was getting at: Could we somehow make this a bit more complex. E.g.

1. Chance that someone has a hand that you don't want (What you have already done) + Are likely to call with it (e.g. the K4 v K5 situation).

2. Factored with the chance that you beat each of these hands at showdown (e.g. KTs v AQo type sitations).

I'm not sure if this is feasible, but it might be possible to approximate the complexity of the situation even more closely. This should give you a pretty good idea of the how likely the push is to succeed. This is probably completely impractical, just thinking out loud /images/graemlins/ooo.gif

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
That's excellent.

With regard to what Mackthefork was getting at: Could we somehow make this a bit more complex. E.g.

1. Chance that someone has a hand that you don't want (What you have already done) + Are likely to call with it (e.g. the K4 v K5 situation).

2. Factored with the chance that you beat each of these hands at showdown (e.g. KTs v AQo type sitations).

I'm not sure if this is feasible, but it might be possible to approximate the complexity of the situation even more closely. This should give you a pretty good idea of the how likely the push is to succeed. This is probably completely impractical, just thinking out loud /images/graemlins/ooo.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

#1 I still see as hard to do--it's rather judgmental as to what you will be called with. This chart assumes that you could be called with Ax and any pair. I could make other assumptions. However, these assumptions should change as your stack gets smaller. For instance, if you have only 2BBs, you might very well get called by K5o, where if you had 10BBs, you wouldn't.

#2: I could change the chart to make it this way:
What are the chances someone has a hand you don't want to see AND you will lose if they call you. That would make it rather complex, but I could take a stab at it (maybe in a week or so, when things slow down at work here). That would make the chart more useful, I would think.