all in on straight flush draw?

[technologic]

2/5 NL at Mandalay Bay

hero has stack of 260.

utg calls, mp1 calls, mp2 calls, hero calls with 79d in the CO, sb folds, bb checks.

flop comes 58J two diamonds. utg bets out 25, mp1 folds, mp2 min raises to 50, i push.

[partygirluk]

Seems good. Double gutters rule. You are ahead of everything but a set, and likely have good fold equity.

[Komodo]

Looks good. youre a favourite against pretty much everything.

[youngin20]

i dont like it. just call and hit, then take their money. i prefer hitting the straight to the flush....cause im weak tight. why push? two pair or better will call, and although you are drawing live...they have redraws.....i just dont really like pushing with a draw...maybe if you had a pair as well....(SF draw with a pair rules...its like 109029101292 percent to win) wait...im still crazy from cold medicine...this doesnt make any sense

[LuvDemNutz]

[ QUOTE ]
i dont like it. just call and hit, then take their money. i prefer hitting the straight to the flush....cause im weak tight. why push? two pair or better will call, and although you are drawing live...they have redraws.....i just dont really like pushing with a draw...maybe if you had a pair as well....(SF draw with a pair rules...its like 109029101292 percent to win) wait...im still crazy from cold medicine...this doesnt make any sense

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem is good players won't pay you off when you hit -
and it isn't just any draw, it's the best possible draw.

PUSH AWAY!

[partygirluk]

Lets examine the scenarios if you call:

i) You hit. Now a decent opponent won't pay you off much. Bad.

ii) You miss. Your opponent now can price you out of the draw. Bad.

Now this is not to say that calling is necessarily wrong. For example if you were confident of getting a free card and/or getting paid off after hitting (your double gutter is very deceptive, ideally you want to hit that), it might be the superior option. But in this case, I think trying to get it all in on the flop is best.

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
Seems good. Double gutters rule. You are ahead of everything but a set, and likely have good fold equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not to be a complete nit, but you're in trouble against two larger diamonds, too. That doesn't make pushing a bad play, but if your opponent is willing to call all-in on a draw, he might end up calling allin with K-high as the best hand (if he held KdQd, for example).

[soah]

Then you can win by pairing up.

[Ghazban]

Yes, but your chances of winning are drastically reduced-- from twodimes:

pokenum -h 7d 9d - kd qd -- jd 8c 5d
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 8c Jd 5d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9d 7d 326 32.93 664 67.07 0 0.00 0.329
Kd Qd 664 67.07 326 32.93 0 0.00 0.671

pokenum -h 7d 9d - 8s 8h -- jd 8c 5d
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 8c Jd 5d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9d 7d 399 40.30 591 59.70 0 0.00 0.403
8s 8h 591 59.70 399 40.30 0 0.00 0.597

You're in worse shape against big diamonds than middle set.

[soah]

The loss in pot equity can probably be regained in folding equity. 88 isn't folding to the push, but KdQd sometimes will. I'm really tired and not thinking too clearly anymore so hopefully I'm making a valid point here and not just being dumb.

[Ghazban]

I agree with you-- I'm just pointing out that the loss of the diamonds as outs is not compensated for by the addition of the pair outs. I also agree about folding equity-- in my first post, I pointed out that it can be a problem if someone calls all-in on a draw themself (only to find they actually have the best hand at the moment). Obviously, a set isn't going anywhere (bottom set or even middle set might.... but that's player-dependent).

[Dr. Strangelove]

I don't see how there is any question given your stack size.

[technologic]

as it turns out, min raiser had 88. question is, if i put the raiser on that hand, is my best play to move in, call, or fold?

[Kaz The Original]

Will he pay you off if you hit?

[technologic]

i have no read on the opponent, other than he's a youngish kid from unc.

[The Truth]

[ QUOTE ]
as it turns out, min raiser had 88. question is, if i put the raiser on that hand, is my best play to move in, call, or fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

clearly call. He's not folding this hand, so pushing has 0 fold value. He will pay you off when you get there.

[Loci]

I agree with you Ghazban... the play seems more desperate than you need to be at this point... I see your reasons for doing it, but I think a flat call or a fold is more appropriate. Also, what are the reads on the players/stack sizes? These are very important to this particular play imo.

[technologic]

fold? you can't be serious...i have too many clean outs. both in the hand have me covered.

[fsuplayer]

pushing is a great way to get those pesky higher diamonds out of there.

there cant be a clearer push tech. shove that sh[/i]it in there.

[Shaun]

If you know he has 88, and just call, he will definitely pay off if you hit the straight, but might not pay the flush. Though you're a slight underdog to a set (58-42 or so), if there is a decent amount of money in the pot when it comes to you, a push is still OK IMO.

Here's why: he will not always have a set. Even though he happened to this time, a lot of the time he will have AJ or worse, or a draw. If you push, you will likely win the pot uncontested most of the time against hands like this. If you don't, oh well, you're a favorite against most hands anyway. The only flush draws that will likely call are exactly QTd, and Axd with a pair.

The second reason that pushing is good is that, in the case of the flush, he might be able to get away from his hand if it comes on the turn. Also, let's say the flush does come, and he leads into you. What are you going to do with the 9 high flush? What if you hit, but it pairs the board? There are a lot of situations that could arise on the turn where a call on the flop leads to a call that is drawing to 1 out on the turn for a lot more money. You could end up calling off your stack with a nine high flush. You don't want to do that- raising the flop is better. As in this case, you could be behind, but that won't be often enough to make getting the dead money in the pot wrong.

Lastly, when you push with draws like this it helps you to get action on your made hands later on.

Push here virtually everytime with that stack.