Odds to win the whole enchilada NCAA Tourney

[Clarkmeister]

+375 means 3.75-1 odds. Bet $1 and get back $4.75, your original $1 and $3.75 profit.


251 North Carolina +375
252 Illinois +385
253 Duke +1250
254 Wake Forest +1225
255 Oklahoma State +1350
256 Georgia Tech +2050
257 Kansas +2050
258 Connecticut +2350
259 Kentucky +2350
260 Arizona +2550
261 Florida +2850
262 Syracuse +2850
263 Oklahoma +2850
264 Washington +2850
265 Louisville +3050
266 Boston College +3250
267 Gonzaga +4550
268 Michigan State +5250
269 Alabama +6550
270 Texas Tech +6850
271 LSU +7250
272 Villanova +7250
273 Wisconsin +7250
274 Pittsburgh +8250
275 UCLA +12050
276 West Virginia +12350
277 Texas +12550
278 Cincinnati +12550
279 Charlotte +12550
280 NC State +7850
281 Stanford +15250
282 Nevada +18550
283 Minnesota +18550
284 Mississippi State +18550
285 Utah +18550
286 Pacific +23500
287 Rest Of Field +3250

[pshreck]

So the question is how much did you put on Illinois? I would think you would like those odds.

[pshreck]

Wow, Duke looks like a decent bet.

[IggyWH]

WSEX Market :

CB ILLINOIS 20 25 +300
CB NORTH CAROLINA 19 24 +316
CB DUKE 8 11 +809
CB WAKE FOREST 7 10 +900
CB OKLAHOMA STATE 5 7 +1328
CB WASHINGTON 4 6 +1566
CB KANSAS 4 6 +1566
CB KENTUCKY 3 5 +1900
CB SYRACUSE 3 5 +1900
CB LOUISVILLE 3 5 +1900
CB GEORGIA TECH 3 5 +1900
CB ARIZONA 3 5 +1900
CB CONNECTICUT 3 5 +1900
CB FLORIDA 2 4 +2400
CB BOSTON COLLEGE 1 3 +3233
CB VILLANOVA 1 3 +3233
CB OKLAHOMA 1 3 +3233
CB GONZAGA 1 3 +3233
CB MARYLAND 0 2 +4900
CB PITTSBURGH 0 2 +4900
CB NORTH CAROLINA STATE 0 2 +4900
CB NOTRE DAME 0 2 +4900
CB ALABAMA 0 2 +4900
CB MICHIGAN STATE 0 2 +4900
CB CINCINNATI 0 2 +4900
CB TEXAS 0 2 +4900
CB PROVIDENCE 0 2 +4900
CB U OF PACIFIC 0 2 +4900
CB STANFORD 0 2 +4900
CB MICHIGAN 0 2 +4900
CB UNC CHARLOTTE 0 2 +4900
CB WISCONSIN 0 2 +4900
CB MISSISSIPPI STATE 0 2 +4900
CB VIRGINIA 0 2 +4900
CB UCLA 0 2 +4900
CB MEMPHIS 0 2 +4900

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
So the question is how much did you put on Illinois? I would think you would like those odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

I already bet them in mid-December at 10-1.

Of the lines posted, I think there is value in betting Illinois, Okie State, Washington, Gonzaga, Oklahoma.

[Clarkmeister]

Just FYI, my lines are from Olympic. www.thegreek.com (http://www.thegreek.com)

[IggyWH]

[ QUOTE ]
Just FYI, my lines are from Olympic. www.thegreek.com (http://www.thegreek.com)

[/ QUOTE ]

Are your lines open? Some of them are blowing WSEX's out the water right now.

[Clarkmeister]

Yup. Up and active.

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
Wow, Duke looks like a decent bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Could be. They have a decent draw.

[Dead]

I'll take Syracuse.

Let me double check with you though Clark and make sure that I understand this line first.

If I bet $100 on Syracuse, then that means that if Syracuse wins the whole thing, that I get $2850 profit?

[pshreck]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll take Syracuse.

Let me double check with you though Clark and make sure that I understand this line first.

If I bet $100 on Syracuse, then that means that if Syracuse wins the whole thing, that I get $2850 profit?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.

[Dead]

That is so awesome.

Can I bet on more than one team?

Like take UConn and SU at their respective odds?

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll take Syracuse.

Let me double check with you though Clark and make sure that I understand this line first.

If I bet $100 on Syracuse, then that means that if Syracuse wins the whole thing, that I get $2850 profit?

[/ QUOTE ]

Easy money.

Note this is at a different site (olympic) than the first one with the odds on the games (pinnacle). Pinnacle doesn't have up odds to win it all yet.

[Dead]

Clark, according to EV from what I understand, Syracuse has to be better than a 28.5 to 1 favorite in order to make this profitable.

Would you bet your own money on them at these odds?

Also, once I bet, can they later change the odds on me? Or are these odds locked in once I bet?

Thanks,
Dead

[pshreck]

Of course. You can go money crazy, but you really have to understand odds, and why it actually makes a lot of mathematical sense why these teams are at these odds.

For Syracuse... sure you think they are great, but think about it this way... first they have to win 4 games against very competitive teams, then they have to win 2 consecutive games against most likely some of the top teams in the nation, who are favored over them. The math comes out to about 25 or so to 1 that they pull this off.

[Clarkmeister]

They are locked in when you bet.

It's up to you if it's fair value. You like their chances more than I do.

[Dead]

Thanks a lot for your help pshreck.

I admit that I don't really understand sports betting, but I do understand sports and I know good teams when I see them.

I know that SU is a longshot to win the whole thing but I am a fan and I believe. If I make this bet(and I think I will), then it will be more for the fun of it then for money, although the money would be nice.

[Dead]

[ QUOTE ]
They are locked in when you bet.

It's up to you if it's fair value. You like their chances more than I do.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's true that I do.

I also think that UConn has good odds as well because they are always a threat.

Maybe I should buy a book about sports betting. It's quite interesting.

Thanks.

[Clarkmeister]

www.sharpsportsbetting.com (http://www.sharpsportsbetting.com)

The book of the same name is excellent.

[pshreck]

Yeah, I agree completely. I am a student at UConn and will try to get 50 bucks or so on the Huskies to win it, regardless of whether or not its a sure bet. If they pull it off, I get to party like a mad man, and also profit about a cool grand. Makes it fun. Just kind of warning you not to bet a ton of money on something that seems like amazing odds, when mathemtically the odds are pretty accurate.

As for value bets, I really like Duke. I honestly feel like Illinois should be the favorite, but UNC and Duke are about equals right now, with Duke playing good ball. Duke seems like a steal at those odds.

[Dead]

What's a WSEX?

[Dead]

[ QUOTE ]
www.sharpsportsbetting.com (http://www.sharpsportsbetting.com)

The book of the same name is excellent.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks a lot Clark. I appreciate it.

Also is there "juice" on these bets? How much if there is?

And does it make sense to wait till Wednesday night to see if the odds get better or worse?

Thanks.

[Clarkmeister]

If a line is -105 on either side, the 05 is the juice.

As far as waiting, if you like a line now, take it unless you have reason to believe that "the public" is going to bet the other side and make the line more favorable. Generally best to just take it now if you like it now.

[Dead]

Ah I see.

But how much would the Juice be on SU +2850?

Will it just tell me when I go to make the bet?

Will Pinnacle offer better odds on SU or will they offer the same as the site you listed above? I guess what I'm asking is do bookies offer different odds?

I'm going to bed now but I'll check this thread tomorrow.

Thanks a lot for your help.

[Ed Miller]

[ QUOTE ]
But how much would the Juice be on SU +2850?

Will it just tell me when I go to make the bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not quite how juice works. You can think of the odds on each team as a "percentage chance to win." So with UNC at +375, they are 3.75-to-1, or given a 1/4.75 chance to win. To find out what the juice is for the whole thing, you add up all the percentage chances to win for all teams. Thus,

UNC +375 = 1/4.75
Illinois +385 = 1/4.85
Duke +1250 = 1/13.50

Etc.

If the bets were fair, those numbers would add up to 100%. Since the bets aren't fair, they will add up to MORE than 100%. How much more is the juice.

In other words, the juice is built into the odds offered by the book just as the juice in roulette is "built in" when they pay you only 35-to-1 on a 1/38 shot.

[Dead]

I understand now.

Thanks a lot Mr. Miller.

[MicroBob]

This thread has taught me a valuable lesson:
I need to be opening an account at olympic.

I'm embarassed by the crappy lines I got.

[Dead]

Hey Bob.

Do you know if Pinnacle has the lines up for winning the whole thing yet? I can't find them. I'm new to this.

Thanks much
Dead

[Uston]

I also think that UConn has good odds as well because they are always a threat.

Less than a month ago this same site was offering UConn at +5,550. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Clarkmeister]

Pinny's odds are up and are better than Olympics.

See the NCAA Tourney Futures under the props section on the lower right.

I took Gonzaga at 8-1 to win their regional.

[Rick Diesel]

So by giving pittsburgh the 25th best odds, I am assuming that I am not the only one that was completely confused with them getting a 9 seed.

[BottlesOf]

I have heard that it is out of date and focuses too much on the NFL. Do you not find this to be the case? I know Wong from his BJ writings and respect what he has to say. If you endorse the book, I think I may pick it up...

[M2d]

does "rest of field" mean you get all the teams in the rest of the field? what if you wanted to play a particular team that doesn't have a price listed?

[Clarkmeister]

It focuses a lot on the NFL, that is true. But for someone new to sports betting trying to understand basic sports gambling principles, it's still perfect. You may well be beyond it.

[Dead]

Pinnacle is giving Syracuse 5 to 1 on coming out of Austin. That shows the Cuse is getting respect.

[wonderwes]

254 Wake Forest +1225

Sportsbook currently has them 15-1. Thats my pick.