check JJ in BB 1/2 Stars

[snapfc01]

hey... i'm wondering what people like to do with a mid-high pair in the BB my thoughts were in micro limit my bet isn't getting anyone to fold and any overcard to my JJ doesn't look good... so i dislike most flops. and if i hit a set i'll get paid off more if i dont' show strength preflop. therefore i check JJ in the BB. anyone play this for a raise and if so can i heard your thoughts.

thanks
Gerard

[zeropotential]

this is a not a debatable situation. its +EV to raise JJ from the BB

[gvibes]

Raise

1/2 = micro

[hate]

Well, I've been considering it, and I'm pretty sure here's the situation. I win with AA 76% of the time or so, that means I'm wasting 26% of my bankroll on aces. That's unacceptable. I submit that since aces always gets cracked by two-pair and [censored], that we discard AA, and keep KK and QQ in the same group since an A always pops up when you have either KK or QQ, and that's just like AA getting cracked by two-pair.

By discard I mean open fold in the BB or fold preflop everywhere else.

[snapfc01]

i don't see how this isn't debatable... what are the odds of the board having no overcard? Do you not agree that you get more of a pay off if you check and hit your set? what is raising doing? only building a pot which unless you hit a set or a lucky 10 high board is often not going to be yours. you will not get anyone to fold here. side note... i'm talking with 3+limpers... i agree with one or two limpers i'm raising... however with 4+ u have to expect QK and A to be out there. i want to hear more then this is +EV... why do u say that? what are your reasons for the raise...

i am not saying i'm right but i'm not going to agree with such a empty statement such as it's not debatable...

[snapfc01]

you're doing the same as the first guy to respond... WHY RAISE? i can't have my mind changed over such an empty statement...

[hate]

JJ has significant power alone as a single pair. I didn't realize you were really serious, this is just common sense. Just because a Q/K/A pops up often doesn't mean you should play it like dogshit.

[btspider]

[ QUOTE ]
you're doing the same as the first guy to respond... WHY RAISE? i can't have my mind changed over such an empty statement...

[/ QUOTE ]

empty statement.. c'mon dude.. if you don't trust peep's opinions, don't ask for it.

anyway, the raise is for value. you have a better hand than average. push it while you know you have an edge.

how about this.. convince us that *not* raising and passing up on your PF equity edge allows you to make up *MORE* bets postflop via deception, folding on Axx flops, etc..

[snapfc01]

do u raise with TT and AK from the BB ?

[hate]

Yes. Also, could you move up to 1/2 and 2/4 and PM me your party username?

[snapfc01]

do u bet out a board with an over pair when there were 4 limpers?

[snapfc01]

i play 1/2 thanks

[snapfc01]

i find it funny that no one can give me a reason for it yet....is this forum here to laugh at people who question what everyone does but doesn't see why?

[Bokonnon]

I believe there's just over a 50% chance of an overcard on the flop. That means there's nearly a 50% chance there won't be one. Also consider that when when there is an overcard, there's no gaurantee that it helps anyone. It's likely not to. You raise because you (very probably) have the best hand and the greatest likelihood of winning the pot. So want it to be as large as possible when you do win. In other words -- the raise isn't primarily to get anybody to fold. It's to get their money.

[snapfc01]

Are you serious that an overcard isn't likely to help someone when there are 4+limpers? i bet well over 75% of the time you're up against a AKQ between all 4+ players.

[bottomset]

[ QUOTE ]
i don't see how this isn't debatable... what are the odds of the board having no overcard? Do you not agree that you get more of a pay off if you check and hit your set? what is raising doing? only building a pot which unless you hit a set or a lucky 10 high board is often not going to be yours. you will not get anyone to fold here. side note... i'm talking with 3+limpers... i agree with one or two limpers i'm raising... however with 4+ u have to expect QK and A to be out there. i want to hear more then this is +EV... why do u say that? what are your reasons for the raise...

i am not saying i'm right but i'm not going to agree with such a empty statement such as it's not debatable...

[/ QUOTE ]

uh you flop a board Thigh or lower about 35-40% of the time, combined with the 12.5% you flop a set, about half of the flops are favorable, you also will like plenty of single overcard flops(mainly Qhigh ones)

also you make more money on a set if the pot was raised preflop, it forces players to call bets on the flop and turn chasing, when you hold a major equity edge

[snapfc01]

thanks for some reasoning and numbers finally... i'm not sure i completely agree but i now have somethign to debate with myself about. do u bet out and call any flop with a single overcard? (if you stop with an A i understand that)

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
i find it funny that no one can give me a reason for it yet....is this forum here to laugh at people who question what everyone does but doesn't see why?

[/ QUOTE ]
Post a hand and post reads on the limpers. The scenario you've outlined is too vague to be answered definitively.

Let's assume the three limpers hold AT, K9, and QT, so that all of the overcards you fear are out there against you. Let's say the SB folds, so it's 4 handed. You, with JJ, against AT, K9, and QT.

This leaves 44 unknown cards, 9 of which hurt your hand. (3 of each: Q, K, A). The chance that the flop does not contain a Q, K, or an A is:

(35/44)(34/43)(33/42) x 100% = 49.4%

This is the worst case scenario. This assumes none of the overcards are duplicated in the limpers hands (ie AQ, KQ, and QT), and it assumes that any overcard hits a limper's hand 100% of the time. This is obviously retarded, as limpers will often have 97o, J8o, etc. This also doesn't take into account you flopping a set and raping and pillaging because a limper hit two pair, and it also doesn't take into account board like QT9 where you have an OESD and don't really care if someone hit a pair.

I'm done. Your fears are unwarranted, and you should raise JJ from the BB, because even if every overcard in the world is in play, you still flop well almost 50% of the time, and you're only putting in 1/4 of the bets preflop. I used like 9 commas in that sentence.

[bottomset]

[ QUOTE ]
thanks for some reasoning and numbers finally... i'm not sure i completely agree but i now have somethign to debate with myself about. do u bet out and call any flop with a single overcard? (if you stop with an A i understand that)

[/ QUOTE ]

see your problem is you want setin stone rules to playby, well poker is a game with many variables, here's a basic point regardless of what you have if the pot is multiway you will win less often period, but the pots will be larger so its still worthwhile

AA vs anyhand is a 4/1 or greater favorite, AA vs 9random hands is about a 7/3 underdog to win the hand ... which situation do you want to be in, in a ring game??





....





alright if you said HU, you are wrong, granted you will lose the majority of the time you have AA 10handed, when it does win ~30% of the time, the pot will be much bigger that it was HU, also you only put in 10% of the bets but get a return of 30%, compared to putting in 50% of the bets, getting ~80%return .. it doesn't take long to see why 10handed is better

not this applys to all pairs, big suited broadway, even offsuit big broadway like AJo .. you win less hands, but more money

[snapfc01]

once again... thanks for a reply that has some ideas in it other then just RAISE b/c that's what you do

[snapfc01]

i'm not lookign for set rules by any means... i've been playing poker for a long time now and know that nothign applys 100% of the time. and yes... AA vs. 9 hands is a bigger ROI.... however... this only apply if you have a limitless bankroll...

[DMBFan23]

[ QUOTE ]
hey... i'm wondering what people like to do with a mid-high pair in the BB my thoughts were in micro limit my bet isn't getting anyone to fold and any overcard to my JJ doesn't look good... so i dislike most flops. and if i hit a set i'll get paid off more if i dont' show strength preflop. therefore i check JJ in the BB. anyone play this for a raise and if so can i heard your thoughts.

thanks
Gerard

[/ QUOTE ]

this is the easiest raise in the world. variance sucks, but not as much as missing EV. raise raise raise.

RAISE THE JACKS IN THE SB OR BB (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=&Number=301785&page=&view= &sb=5&o=&fpart=all)

[Bokonnon]

Well, that would be 3 overcards. Which, for JJ, would be a scary board indeed.

Incidentally, my response was an attempt to address you're lack of satisfaction with earlier replies. I was entirely serious and in no way was I saying "raise because you're supposed to." Miles obviously said it a hell of a lot better, but I was suggesting (or attempting to suggest) the same thing: You're hand is probably best. Don't understand your hostility to my post.

[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
i don't see how this isn't debatable... what are the odds of the board having no overcard? Do you not agree that you get more of a pay off if you check and hit your set? what is raising doing? only building a pot which unless you hit a set or a lucky 10 high board is often not going to be yours. you will not get anyone to fold here. side note... i'm talking with 3+limpers... i agree with one or two limpers i'm raising... however with 4+ u have to expect QK and A to be out there. i want to hear more then this is +EV... why do u say that? what are your reasons for the raise...

i am not saying i'm right but i'm not going to agree with such a empty statement such as it's not debatable...

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd much rather have all the trash ppl limped in with have to pay another bet. If you have 58s, and limp in the CO, do you really want to have to pay another bet to see the flop?

With JJ preflop, u have a big edge over random trash, and you should raise. Even if you raise, and you hit your set, if an overcard hits a fish, they won't fold.

Just raise, and if you are worried about overcards, learn how to play post flop.



For what it's worth, I've raised JJ from the BB with 5 limpers. So 12SB to the flop. It was AK3. I check folded. If the flop is really scary, just get out. It's hard to make up the extra bets you get in preflop. Trust me.

[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
do u raise with TT and AK from the BB ?

[/ QUOTE ]


In an unraised pot, everytime. In a raised pot, it depends on the action.

[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you serious that an overcard isn't likely to help someone when there are 4+limpers? i bet well over 75% of the time you're up against a AKQ between all 4+ players.

[/ QUOTE ]



Looks like weak/tight to me

[snapfc01]

i wasn't trying to be an ass to you... just saying that i can't change my mind without something more then just being told... u know what i mean? i want a reason not just an answer. and i have no doubt it the fact that's it's almost always the best hand when it hasn't been raised... but you dont' always bet out with the best hand either

[snapfc01]

how low of a PP do u raise with on the BB in an unraised pot?

[RcrdBoy]

Great link. Thanks for posting it.

Some good stuff with some of the best posters on these boards.

[imported_leader]

[ QUOTE ]
do u raise with TT and AK from the BB ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
do u raise with TT and AK from the BB ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. In every game texture at every limit I play with any number of limpers in any position, be it 20-40 or 100-200. And for damn sure in 1-2.

[Clarkmeister]

bump. This is important.

[@bsolute_luck]

at first i thought this was an obvious reply, but i get cracked by pair A/K/Q all the time. but isn't why you are raising to #1 get hands with A/K/Q and weak kickers to fold #2 raise the value of the pot for when you do hit your set or your jax hold up?

and this is a percentage/math question. i know A-Q do hit the board often, but isn't at highest a 22% chance that they will get paired? while you are 100% paired with 4% chance to hit a set? (and that is HU only PRF).

[DoctorDrew]

Yes, but the key is NOT what MAY happen on the flop. The key is you have +EV with a raise. You probably have the best hand PF, so why not get money in the pot.

Expecting to get cracked is going to cost you money.

[gvibes]

[ QUOTE ]
but isn't why you are raising to #1 get hands with A/K/Q and weak kickers to fold #2 raise the value of the pot for when you do hit your set or your jax hold up?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, this isn't why we are raising from the blinds, because no one will (or should) fold. We raising because we have an equity edge. In other words, if there are three other people in the pot, we raise TT and AK in the BB, because we win more than 25% of the time. Every bet that goes in from those 3 other guys makes us money.

This has probably been gone over elsewhere in the thread.

[droolie]

[ QUOTE ]
at first i thought this was an obvious reply, but I get cracked by pair A/K/Q all the time. but isn't why you are raising to #1 get hands with A/K/Q and weak kickers to fold #2 raise the value of the pot for when you do hit your set or your jax hold up?


[/ QUOTE ]

You're hand will win more often than it's fair share so when you raise with JJ these added bets are good for you. I win with JJ almost 50% of the time. That means my JJ gets cracked 50% of the time. What does this mean? On average 50% of the money going in to the pot is mine. The more that goes in the better. Raising pf is a sure fire way to get more money in the pot because the limpers will not fold until they have seen the flop. They are in essence trapped for another bet when you raise. Don't let them see the flop cheaply when you are the favorite to win.

I say this all the time but get them to put their money in the pot before they realize the flop has missed them.

You will remember the times when your JJ's are cracked but try to forget about it. You're winning with them enough to make this raise +EV. Also remember that many times players will give you credit for AK when you bet when the flop comes something like AQ6 and they're holding a Q. They don't know you have JJ until you show them. Many players won't pay to see it. This will factor heavily in getting your win rate with JJ up to around 50%.

[DMBFan23]

[ QUOTE ]
at first i thought this was an obvious reply, but i get cracked by pair A/K/Q all the time. but isn't why you are raising to #1 get hands with A/K/Q and weak kickers to fold #2 raise the value of the pot for when you do hit your set or your jax hold up?

and this is a percentage/math question. i know A-Q do hit the board often, but isn't at highest a 22% chance that they will get paired? while you are 100% paired with 4% chance to hit a set? (and that is HU only PRF).

[/ QUOTE ]

you're 7.5-1 against hitting a set, so it happens slightly more often than 4%.


also, as an aside, in my database JJ is my 4th winning-est hand. what kind of hand do you guys need to raise here?

[Hiatus]

This is one of the better threads I've read here. Kudos to the original poster for his persistence in seeking actual ANALYSIS instead of the weak "do it because it's right" approach that so often passes for analysis. It may be right, but UNDERSTANDING why it's right is far more helpful than just knowing it.

Thanks to those who took the time to teach.

[Clarkmeister]

Just so you know, JJ flops a set or an overpair ~60% of the time. Why *wouldn't* you raise there? Compare that to AK which flops TPTK "only" ~33% of the time and is *still* worth a raise..

[Bokonnon]

[ QUOTE ]
i wasn't trying to be an ass to you...

[/ QUOTE ]
No worries.

[ QUOTE ]
i can't change my mind without something more then just being told... u know what i mean? i want a reason not just an answer.

[/ QUOTE ]
Fair enough.

[garion888]

Ran some numbers with Pokerstove to give a little more concrete answer.

Jacks versus 4 completely random hands...

Hand 1: 40.2881 % [ 00.40 00.00 ] { JJ }
Hand 2: 14.9383 % [ 00.14 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 3: 14.9376 % [ 00.14 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 4: 14.9188 % [ 00.14 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 5: 14.9171 % [ 00.14 00.01 ] { random }

And Jacks versus 3 randoms and a Broadway or Big Pair

Hand 1: 33.3068 % [ 00.33 00.00 ] { JJ }
Hand 2: 25.1812 % [ 00.24 00.01 ] { AA-TT, AKs-ATs, KQs-KTs, QJs-QTs, JTs, AKo-ATo, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo, JTo }
Hand 3: 13.8504 % [ 00.13 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 4: 13.8251 % [ 00.13 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 5: 13.8364 % [ 00.13 00.01 ] { random }

I think it's to estimate your equity pre-flop at around 35%. You are going to win much more than your fair share of 20% of the time versus 4 people, therefore you raise. Simple as that. As the number of opponents goes down, your equity obviously improves.

Hope this helps...
-j