a 20+2 bubble

[wuwei]

My game has kind of sucked lately. Bleh.


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t795)
SB (t630)
BB (t2820)
UTG (t3755)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">

UTG folds, Hero...

Forgot a relevant read, which said the BB was likely to call with a wide range of hands.

[eastbay]

Is there any chance that BB is stupid enough to fold? It makes a big difference.

eastbay

[wuwei]

Yah, I forgot to add I thought it likely he'd call with a wide range of hands. Sorry about that.

[wuwei]

I'll add a little more. Reread what I wrote, and "calling with a wide range of hands" isn't the most informative thing considering he's getting over 3:1.

BB had been playing pretty loose early on, getting involved in a lot of pots. He had tightened up some, but still seemed willing to get involved liberally. However, there was one hand where he was getting roughly 2.5:1 to call an allin from the other short stack and folded. So yah, there is a chance he folds a complete crap hand (presumably what he had there), but I think he's calling with most of his holdings.

[FishBurger]

I push that every time regardless of whether I expect to get called. If you fold, you are hoping to limp into third. If you push, you're going to have 1400 chips, 1800 chips, or be out in fourth. I prefer to push and at least have a chance at a higher spot than third as opposed to folding like a girl.

Plus, A8 is a favorite against 2 random hands. I would probably push this even if SB had 201 chips even though ICM prolly says that is the wrong thing to do.

[eastbay]

lori? /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

eastbay

[lastchance]

Damn you SB! In one more orbit, SB can fold down to 30 chips leaving you to double up or lose in your BB.

So yeah, POOOSH!

[Scuba Chuck]

This is an interesting question.

Has anyone considered that this issue involves a choice of two coinflips. So, what is your preference?

1) It's a coinflip that Hero wins this hand if he pushes.

2) It's a coinflip that he goes out 4th or 3rd, if he just waits to get blinded out.

[curtains]

I believe that pushing is correct here. Just my instinct, I haven't done any math.

[Myst]

Its not a coinflip if Hero pushes with A8, b/c A8 will dominate a lot of hands BB will call with.

I think this is an easy push. Fold and you relegate yourself to playing for 3rd.

[curtains]

When did A8o against a random hand become a coin flip?

[raptor517]

life is a coinflip... ok, well, i guess hes considering something like A8o vs KJs (no suits of A8), whcih is a 53.5/46.5 situation, to be a coinflip. and by all means, it pretty much is. i duno what A8o is against any 2, buuuut, a lot of times its pretty darn close to a coinflip. holla

[curtains]

I think A8o is about 60% against random hand, but not sure.

(Cool Im a genius I put it into pokerstove and its exactly 59.8% against a random hand.)

[raptor517]

of course u write that in, without posting that its edited. mhmmm. i think u ran pokerstove FIRST. wrote in your lil 60% comment, then FAKE edited and put in the 59.8. thats what i think anyway. holla

[Apathy]

Its all part of curtains mass conspiracy to make us think he is smarter then he really is.