How big of an edge to you need to call?

[Slim Pickens]

This seems to be coming up in a number of threads lately, so I'd like to ask it up front. Here's the hypothetical situation.

You are in a SnG at the buy-in level you usually play. 9-handed, in the first two levels, an early-position player raises all-in. You are in the big blind with what would normally be a raising hand. It is folded around to you. You have the same number of chips as the raiser. Let's say you know what cards the raiser has.

Question: How big of an edge must you have before you call the all-in?

I'm going to say my answer is 5:3, or EV=0.625. That's the number I need to get ITM 41% of the time if I get to take this edge against the field until I either get ITM or bust.

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm going to say my answer is 5:3, or EV=0.625. That's the number I need to get ITM 41% of the time if I get to take this edge against the field until I either get ITM or bust.

[/ QUOTE ]

How did you get this?

[lorinda]

Not quite what you were asking, but I win 63.72% of pots at showdown on level one of the $33s.

Do with that what you will.

Lori

[curtains]

It mainly depends on the skill level of difference between you and your opponents.

[Slim Pickens]

I got this 41% number from a 0.625 edge after deciding there isn't a good analytical way to figure out an answer to this question, so I just wrote a little script to simulate a weighted race situation for out hero, Hero. Hero starts with 1 chip. If his random number between zero and one is less than the selected win probability, he gets another chip. If his random number is greater than the win probability, he loses one chip. This continues until he either collects at least 8 chips (and thus has to be one of the last three at the table) or goes bust. With a win probability of 0.625, Hero collects at least 8 chips about 41.1% of the time.

There's the advice from HEFAP (I think) that goes something like: "If you're better than your competition, take smaller risks. If you're worse, feel free to gamble more." I'm trying to figure out quantitatively where that line is. What I'd like to know is whether players who consistently beat a particular buy-in level, say 41% ITM over 2k tournaments, come up with a number for the edge they need to see a showdown based on their experience that's significantly different than the one I get from my simulated hero.

Which of these would you take in my original situation, where you can call a preflop all-in raise for all your chips, getting essentially 1:1 pot odds, with no one behind you, and you know your opponent's cards?

1) You have A/images/graemlins/heart.gifK/images/graemlins/heart.gif, raiser has 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif5/images/graemlins/club.gif
2) You have T/images/graemlins/diamond.gifT/images/graemlins/heart.gif, raiser has A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifK/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
3) You have A/images/graemlins/heart.gifQ/images/graemlins/club.gif, raiser had K/images/graemlins/club.gifT/images/graemlins/club.gif
4) You have A/images/graemlins/heart.gifQ/images/graemlins/club.gif, raiser had J/images/graemlins/club.gifT/images/graemlins/club.gif
5) You have A/images/graemlins/heart.gifK/images/graemlins/club.gif, raiser has 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif6/images/graemlins/spade.gif
6) You have A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifT/images/graemlins/club.gif, raiser has 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif4/images/graemlins/spade.gif
7) You have Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ/images/graemlins/heart.gif, raiser has A/images/graemlins/spade.gifJ/images/graemlins/spade.gif
8) You have Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ/images/graemlins/heart.gif, raiser has J/images/graemlins/spade.gifT/images/graemlins/spade.gif

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
Not quite what you were asking, but I win 63.72% of pots at showdown on level one of the $33s.

Do with that what you will.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

I would think that should be higher for level I.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's say you know what cards the raiser has.

[/ QUOTE ]

I often think about this situation in a similar manner. For example, it's 5 handed. Equal stacks. For just one hand, everyone's cards are dealt face up. You are the BB with A9o, and it's fold to the SB who has KQs. He pushes allin. What do you do?

BTW, pokerstove says you're a 54.7% favorite to win this hand.

BTW2, the hand is dealt face up for just this hand, all future hands will be dealt face down.

[Slim Pickens]

So my first thought was "clear fold," but I ran this through my Hero simulation. I started Hero with one chip, and stopped him when he either had three chips or busted. He end up with ITM=39.8%. I guess that means that unless you can always get yourself to a five-handed game with an equal stack (or better) A9o vs. KQs is too small of an edge to take. If I start Hero with 2 chips (equivalent to being 5-handed with a 2:1 chip lead over the other four, who are equal) his ITM is 72.7%

This whole exercise was generated when I realized I can't answer "How much of an edge do I need to make taking showdowns profitable?" What I can answer easily is "What do I want my ITM% to be?"

[mackthefork]

ICM says your dollar EV increases from 10% to 18% of the pool if you double up on the first hand of a party sng, I know I should be able to work out the point dollar EV and CEV converge from this, I think its 10/18=55.5%.

Mack

[Slim Pickens]

Yeah. Hero really should make the edge he needs to have to call an all-in be a function of the chip difference between himself and the all-in player. In other news, I've invented a method of moving heavy objects by the use of round things I call "rollinators."

Slim

[mackthefork]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah. Hero really should make the edge he needs to have to call an all-in be a function of the chip difference between himself and the all-in player.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I was assuming both equal skill level and that it was the first hand of a SNG, otherwise the answer changes as the variables do.

[ QUOTE ]
In other news, I've invented a method of moving heavy objects by the use of round things I call "rollinators."

[/ QUOTE ]

You never invented those, they are just banister spindles, I use them all the time, I moved 18 fire-proof filing cabinets 50 yards in 30 mins with nothing but the help of a 90 year old caretaker and 2 of those fuckers. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

PS I have the UK patent down /images/graemlins/grin.gif.

Mack

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
In other news, I've invented a method of moving heavy objects by the use of round things I call "rollinators."

Slim

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a few of those things might be perfect for this thing I'm working on called a 'conductulator.'

http://mactips.info/blog/images/nowheels2.jpg

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
I got this 41% number from a 0.625 edge after deciding there isn't a good analytical way to figure out an answer to this question, so I just wrote a little script to simulate a weighted race situation for out hero, Hero. Hero starts with 1 chip. If his random number between zero and one is less than the selected win probability, he gets another chip. If his random number is greater than the win probability, he loses one chip. This continues until he either collects at least 8 chips (and thus has to be one of the last three at the table) or goes bust. With a win probability of 0.625, Hero collects at least 8 chips about 41.1% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

In a game with 10 chips that would be true, but in a game with 8000 chips, having 8 x 800 = 6400 chips is not a guarantee you are ITM, but it is way above the average number of chips you will need to get ITM.

[Slim Pickens]

True. What I'm assuming here is that Hero will be knocking out every player with whom he sees a showdown and wins, and that no other players are able to do this and collect chips. So far that's not much of an analysis I know, and I think the full-blown model is probably just another way of doing ICM, except less transparent and needlessly complicated.

I think it could actually be very useful though if I could say something about the rate at which Hero takes these showdowns as compared to the other players, because that will make a huge difference in the edge he wants to have when he does.

Slim

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
1) You have A/images/graemlins/heart.gifK/images/graemlins/heart.gif, raiser has 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif5/images/graemlins/club.gif
2) You have T/images/graemlins/diamond.gifT/images/graemlins/heart.gif, raiser has A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifK/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
3) You have A/images/graemlins/heart.gifQ/images/graemlins/club.gif, raiser had K/images/graemlins/club.gifT/images/graemlins/club.gif
4) You have A/images/graemlins/heart.gifQ/images/graemlins/club.gif, raiser had J/images/graemlins/club.gifT/images/graemlins/club.gif
5) You have A/images/graemlins/heart.gifK/images/graemlins/club.gif, raiser has 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif6/images/graemlins/spade.gif
6) You have A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifT/images/graemlins/club.gif, raiser has 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif4/images/graemlins/spade.gif
7) You have Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ/images/graemlins/heart.gif, raiser has A/images/graemlins/spade.gifJ/images/graemlins/spade.gif
8) You have Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ/images/graemlins/heart.gif, raiser has J/images/graemlins/spade.gifT/images/graemlins/spade.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

4 through 8 are autocalls and they should not be close.

2 is close enough so AKo might still be a call but the way I play tens (and AQ for that matter) it doesn't ever come up. (I forgot what the percentages for 3 are, if they're over 56-57 that's a call too.)

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
(I forgot what the percentages for 3 are, if they're over 56-57 that's a call too.)

[/ QUOTE ]

Would you say that this is more level dependent? That seems like an awfully marginal call.

Also, still not discussed, coinflips are dependent on where in the game you are. For example, I'd prefer to avoid all coinflips (even 56% advantage) for all my chips, before ITM if possible. (I mostly play the $33s) But it rarely works that way. So, you need coinflips when you're getting low stacked. A lot of coinflips occur on the bubble. IMO, bubble coinflips or later make the most sense, because you can attribute a money value to them. When it's 9 handed, and you win a coinflip, it doesn't guarantee you any winnings.

[adanthar]

Sure it does. Why are you making bubble coinflips? Because you passed up a 58/42 earlier and now need those chips back so now you're taking a much lower flip on purpose.

The dead money (blinds) alter this a bit as do the stack sizes of the other players, so there is always some advantage to taking a flip later over earlier. But considering how often you get called by hands that dominate you or are 2:1 favorites on the bubble (add it up; given how often it is correct to push, a majority of the calls usually have you at least down and often killed) the one big flip with a good edge early is a better bet.

Also, people fold to big stacks more. That's a big one.

[Blarg]

Only good players do. At the 10's, people don't fold plenty of times even when it's clearly the correct decision.

[shejk]

With pot odds considered I don't think I'm taking many 51 percenters later in the game either.