Flush draw hits top pair against an aggressor

[Isura]

Did I go into calldown mode too soon? Please discuss play on all streets.

Villian was fairly solid 20/5/3 after about 100 hands.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 3-bets</font>, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (8.75 BB) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (10.75 BB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 12.75 BB

[jaxUp]

I like your play here, especially the flop c/r. Too bad it got 3-bet.

[@bsolute_luck]

i think i would have played this the same except for the c/r on the flop.

What were you trying to accomplish by doing this?

[Isura]

Bet, call, call. A raise is for value on my flush draw.

[Dead]

[ QUOTE ]
i think i would have played this the same except for the c/r on the flop.

What were you trying to accomplish by doing this?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd almost always try for the check-raise here, considering that the PFR is to Hero's immediate left. Most of them UTG+2 won't re-raise here and Hero gets to keep the MPs in the hand.

I think you're letting the flop action bias your advice.

[oLyphant]

so a check raise here is really for value..or is it not?

[@bsolute_luck]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet, call, call. A raise is for value on my flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm still trying to understand value betting. for some reason i have mental problems understanding it. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[@bsolute_luck]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i think i would have played this the same except for the c/r on the flop.

What were you trying to accomplish by doing this?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd almost always try for the check-raise here, considering that the PFR is to Hero's immediate left. Most of them UTG+2 won't re-raise here and Hero gets to keep the MPs in the hand.

I think you're letting the flop action bias your advice.

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't know what you mean by the bolded statement, but i was just wondering because i don't play my flush draws that way. i'm working on it. see my previous post to see why i'm confused. that's all.

[jaxUp]

He thought that you were being results oriented because the 3-bet really sucks ass, but I think you were actually just confused.

Here's why we check-raise:

PF aggressor is to hero's immediate left, there are 4 players on the flop. If we bet out, and PF aggressor raises, it forces everybody to call 2 cold, and they are likely to fold. So, we check it, to encourage the others to call and get tied to the pot. Then, once they have money in, we raise it, because we are putting in 25% of the money (because now we assume everybody will call) and will hit our flush 35% of the time. This is a substantial edge to be pushing.

[Abelardo]

I'm thinking I might not call this river, unless villian is on a total bluff I think you're way behind, I can't think of a reasonable hoding for the villian that you could possibly beat. But who knows, the pot is quite big at that point so I might be wrong.


Abelardo

[Isura]

With a flush draw, you are better than 2 to 1 make your hand by the river. We can think about this situation in terms of pot equity. Say you are in a hand against 3 people, and you and your opponents have unknown random hands. In this case, offcourse you expect to win 25% of the time. So your pot equity is 25%. Now, say you have a flush draw and you are sure that when you make your flush you win 100% of the time (for simplicity). Remember you are about 2 to 1 (35% actually) to make the flush on the turn OR river. So any time more than 2 people call you are getting better odds on your bet than the odds of making your hand. In other words, you only have to pay 25% of the bets (1 bet, 3 others make 1 bet) but you are favored to win more than 25% of the time. Hence the value bet.

Also, in this hand wouldn't it be great if the pf raiser 3-bets, and one of the callers folds K9 or something. Then you flop an A and the original raiser shows QQ-TT and you win without making the flush. So the bet is not only for value in some cases, but primarily for value since the above situation is less likely.

[Dead]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bet, call, call. A raise is for value on my flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm still trying to understand value betting. for some reason i have mental problems understanding it. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Let me try and explain. You have 3 opponents. You can expect to make your flush by the river 35% of the time. There are times that you will hit your flush and lose, but there are also times that you will back into trips or two pair and win that way. So we can say that you will win 35% of the time. So you have 35% equity. Every pot has 100% equity. But with 3 opponents, your FAIR SHARE of the equity is 100/4, or 25%. So you are making money on every bet that goes into the pot, since you'll win this pot a little more than 1/3 of the time.

[Isura]

Nice post. I did all that typing for nothing. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Dead]

I see we just said the same thing hahaha. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[@bsolute_luck]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm thinking I might not call this river, unless villian is on a total bluff I think you're way behind, I can't think of a reasonable hoding for the villian that you could possibly beat. But who knows, the pot is quite big at that point so I might be wrong.


Abelardo

[/ QUOTE ]

i think the pot is too big not to call. no flush/boats out there. a straight JT is extremely unlucky because of PRF and Flop betting.

sure he raised PRF, but unless he is a weak-tight/passive player, he might simply have a pair of Kings.

[@bsolute_luck]

[ QUOTE ]
He thought that you were being results oriented because the 3-bet really sucks ass, but I think you were actually just confused.

Here's why we check-raise:

PF aggressor is to hero's immediate left, there are 4 players on the flop. If we bet out, and PF aggressor raises, it forces everybody to call 2 cold, and they are likely to fold. So, we check it, to encourage the others to call and get tied to the pot. Then, once they have money in, we raise it, because we are putting in 25% of the money (because now we assume everybody will call) and will hit our flush 35% of the time. This is a substantial edge to be pushing.

[/ QUOTE ]

and yes i was just generally confused. there is a lot to learn and remember. i understand now, thanks.

[Dead]

Definitely call this river with TP.

[jaxUp]

Hopefully 3 well-written responses will help you understand

[@bsolute_luck]

[ QUOTE ]
Hopefully 3 well-written responses will help you understand

[/ QUOTE ]

actually, yes. they were all very clear. thanx.

[Abelardo]

Really? Based on the read (solid player probably position-aware) I think your chances of being ahead are really slim in this particular case, I know you normally you have to call this but an EP rise from a solid player would normally mean AA-TT AK-AJ ATs KQ in most cases, and unless he's bluffing or went over the board with JJ or TT you're pretty much screwed. The pot is big I know, but will he be bluffing enough to justify the call?


Abelardo

[Dead]

Maybe he's not bluffing. He could just have a King here.

[@bsolute_luck]

[ QUOTE ]
Really? Based on the read (solid player probably position-aware) I think your chances of being ahead are really slim in this particular case, I know you normally you have to call this but an EP rise from a solid player would normally mean AA-TT AK-AJ ATs KQ in most cases, and unless he's bluffing or went over the board with JJ or TT you're pretty much screwed. The pot is big I know, but will he be bluffing enough to justify the call?


Abelardo

[/ QUOTE ]

i think you're putting him on too narrow a hand selection. sure it's possible, but he could be betting with a lot more junk. player read is greatly helpful, but your hand is strong enough to still be best IMHO.

[hate]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe he's not bluffing. He could just have a King here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can put him on a small range of hands here judging by his flop actions, and you're beating none of them when the Q falls.

AA-KK, AKs/AKo, and KQs/KQo.

I would have called by default, but in retrospect I think this is would be a good river fold.

[@bsolute_luck]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Maybe he's not bluffing. He could just have a King here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can put him on a small range of hands here judging by his flop actions, and you're beating none of them when the Q falls.

AA-KK, AKs/AKo, and KQs/KQo.

I would have called by default, but in retrospect I think this is would be a good river fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

that's true. i forgot about the PRF raise which limits his hands considerably. further study, folding wouldn't be a bad option, nor is calling really.

[Shillx]

Your river play leaves something to be desired. Checking and calling is probably the worst option here. I would only check if I intended to fold. Given the action, it seems like check/folding would be the best play but betting probably isn't far behind.

Betting the flop might not be a bad idea here here. If he will fold a hand like QQ or AJ, you might be able to gain enough equity to make this correct.

Let's say that at worst your pot equity at this point is 35%. If you can fold out UTG+2, let's just assume that you gain 2 outs and your equity jumps to 42%.

Now let's draw up 2 possible outcomes. For #1, you will bet and UTG+2 will fold thus making your equity 42%. Both other players will call. For #2, you will check/raise UTG+2 and everyone will call the check/raise. Your equity here will be 35%. Let's see which is better.

#1: Equity = (9.5 SB + 3 SB)*.42 - 1 SB = 4.25 SB
#2: Equity = (9.5 SB + 8 SB)*.35 - 2 SB = 4.125 SB

So if we can get UTG+2 to fold a hand that will give us extra outs, we can slightly increase our equity here. Of couse a lot can go wrong by betting into the PFR (namely he might raise us and knock out the other 2 players). If this happens...

Equity = (9.5 SB + 4 SB)*.35 - 2 SB = 2.725 SB

So in this case, the .125 SB of equity we gain isn't worth the potential risk of losing &gt; 1 SB in equity should the PFR raise. Now of course there are lots of other considerations here (ie. the PFR bets after we check to him and the others players fold anyway). But in this spot, I think playing the hand for flush value is the correct line. If the pot were really big (like 25 SB) then it would probably be correct to try and get as many outs as possible.

Brad

[Isura]

Yeah, I was hoping more people would discuss the river. I was first going to bet/fold to raise on the river, but villian had a fairly high turn and river aggression. Also, the way I saw it, this way I atleast get to see the showdown, no way I'm beating any hand that raises this river. But probably check/folding is the better option. I don't see how betting out is good unless I plan to fold to a raise.