NL SNG End Game Question

[soda]

Hi all, been a long time since I posted. I just recently switched from limit shorthanded to the SNG NL games. Started at the $30, moved to $50 and now I'm at the $100 level. My basic strat is tight early, aggressive late.

Here's the hypothetical situation:

Hero BB: T3500
SB: T3200
Button: T1400
UTG: T1900

Blinds are 150, 300. Hero has been the aggressor at the table. The other players seem to have gone into the typical conservative shell, folding way too often to the hero's raises.

Hero is dealt AKo.

UTG folds, Button folds, SB goes all in.

I used to think this was an automatic call. But, given the frequency with which AKo loses to 75s, Q6o, let alone a small pair, should this just be mucked if you are running the game over? Is it proper strategy to simply avoid calling for almost all your chips here and fold?

Well, the more I look at it, the more it seems like a fold. How about situation number 2:

Hero BB: T3500
SB: T3200
Button: T3300

Blinds are 150, 300. Button folds, SB pushes all in.

Now, is it better to fold here or call? Assume you are the best player at the table and can continue to steal blinds at a rate that is faster than your opponents.

Thank you for your comments,

soda

[citanul]

If you know you can clearly steal faster than your opponents, it's clearly a fold in both situations, since you will eventually just get all the chips by stealing. It's rare that you have such perfect control over your opponents.

Assume that you cannot just win all the chips by stealing forever:

The call in situation 2 (assuming you again have AK) is a much easier call. You're in the money, and you have one of the best hands there is. You can't fold here unless you are dead sure that they will basically fold to your push every time. You're miles ahead of the random hand, and specifically against the Ax taht pushes here very often. Situation 2 is usually a very easy call.

Situation 1, well here it you have a lot more flexibility. But I think that it's usually going to be a call as well. If you have true dominion over the table, hey, fine, just chillax and steal blinds, make do, whatever, fine. But I think that your chances of being far ahead, and then being the massive stack in the money far outweight he "chances that 75s or whatever beat AKs" which we all know to be not very good chances.

citanul

[lastchance]

Ditto. I probably call hand 1, and it might be a leak of mine. Gap concept, gotta love it.

I definitely call hand 2, and I know that's not a leak of mine. Unless people fold 88 and AJ, I think you call.

[stripsqueez]

i would call both - 1 is tempting to fold - 2 seems auto

T1400 is plenty of chips 4 handed with the blinds at 150/300 - i dont like playing for the money when the short stack is in that position - you contradict yourself to say that they might show you 75s in hand 1 and also be too passive - good odds you will be dominating a hand

as the aggressor 3-4 handed you can almost never expect to beat them by just stealing blinds - certainly they are too passive and let themselves get blinded into awful positions but your not being aggro enough if you arent also getting called by better hands regularly

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[AA suited]

interesting..

#1: auto-fold for me. i've lost toooooo many coin flips vs pocket pair. my view is avoid coin flips on the bubble if he has more than 1/2 my stack.

#2: autocall. you are ITM.

[EdgePort]

I fold the first case if I am pretty sure I can keep stealing blinds. I will avoid the coin flip if I know I can keep getting the blinds. I think I would call if the SB has done this a number of times though.

#2 = Auto-call

[soda]

I'd just like to point out that As Kd loses to 7h 5h over 40% of the time as a straight to showdown hand.

soda

[soda]

Hey strip,

I was just giving a real life example. I was picking up blinds towards the end, comfortably, when that hand came up. It seems to me - and this could be short term results skewing my opinion - anyway, it seems to me that in the end game, I get knocked out of these things quite often by calling equal stack all ins with potentially weak holdings like AKo.

soda

[citanul]

thanks for pointing it out to me. i'd definitely never known that interesting tidbit!

way to go, you picked a hand that runs incredibly well against AK from the set "random hand." terrific. you are a world beater, and i shouldn't enter discussions about proper play with you.

create a reasonable range of hands for your opponent to be on. giving up a 60/40 edge is not incredibly advisable most of the time. the chances that you are dominating your opponent are incredibly high. the chances that you are running against random junk cards that aren't suited connectors are very high as well, while the chances that you are up against a pair are low. if i knew my opponent to be super tight on the bubble, i'd likely fold, but at the higher limit sngs, i think that folding is probably a mistake.

a quick "make a range of hands" and an icm calculation should be pretty sufficient though. honestly though, at some point you have to consider how much more you're going to be able to steals, combined with how much equity your giving up by folding hand 1. at some point, the short stacks do start to call, and they'll likely be ahead when they do it.

citanul

[citanul]

AKo is not a weak holding.

learn to get a read on your opponent. if he's tight, it's much more likely that you are behind. if he's wild and competing with you for chips, i think that you probably can't fold. remember that when you win this hand, you'll be a prohibative favorite for first, while when you fold, you'll be competing on much more equal ground, and clearly not a favorite to win, since the sb will push at your bb every time it is passed to him.

citanul

[stripsqueez]

[ QUOTE ]
AKo is not a weak holding

[/ QUOTE ]

its not weak but its just another drawing hand

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[citanul]

Christ, this drawing hand stuff is nonsense. 76s is a "Drawing hand" a hand that has a statistical advantage over every hand but 13 is not a "drawing hand." By this logic, you can only play "non drawing hands" in some spots, and I just like AK a bit more than 22. And yes, I know that's a bit of strawmanning, but while I agree that there are spots taht I want to have say, QQ or better to call, saying AK is anything but a nice hand is just plain silly in my view.

citanul, who hopes to learn something. Again, it comes down to putting your opponent on a range, figuring out what's going to happen if you call and what's going to happen if you fold, and then seeing which looks like a bigger EV move.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]

Well, the more I look at it, the more it seems like a fold.


[/ QUOTE ]

Agree. If you put him on 22+,A5+,KJ+, here's an ICM analysis:

http://sitngo-analyzer.com/poker/AKo-call.PNG

Even if you put him on any two, it's still a tiny advantage to call. I probably still fold it especially since you said you're running over these guys.

http://sitngo-analyzer.com/poker/AKo-call-anytwo.PNG

[ QUOTE ]

How about situation number 2:

Hero BB: T3500
SB: T3200
Button: T3300

Blinds are 150, 300. Button folds, SB pushes all in.

Now, is it better to fold here or call? Assume you are the best player at the table and can continue to steal blinds at a rate that is faster than your opponents.

Thank you for your comments,

soda

[/ QUOTE ]

This is potentially read-dependent now, but almost certainly a call unless something really weird is going on.

Even with a reasonably tight pushing assumption of 55+,A7+, KQs:

http://sitngo-analyzer.com/poker/AKo-3way-call.PNG

So basically, I think the gist of your Q is about the differences between bubble and ITM play, and you've conjured up a good example of why they're so different.

eastbay

[AA suited]

so eastbay, when will your software be available?

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
so eastbay, when will your software be available?

[/ QUOTE ]

The latest info will always be on my site's forum. A link is in my profile.

This Friday, March 18th is planned for the first, limited distribution release.

eastbay