A ridiculously difficult hand Part I

[Iconoclastic]

Early in low buy-in MTT. Blinds 15-30. Everyone has nearly the same amount, 1500. I hold JhTc in SB. 2 limpers, I complete. BB raises to 90, everyone calls. I called for the implied odds and getting to close the action preflop.

So now there's 360 in the pot. Flop comes JcJd2d, giving me T high trips but with two diamonds on the flop. I'm against 3 opponents who each have 1410 chips.

How do I play this first to act on flop turn and river?

I'll continue with followup posts detailing what has complicated this hand so much and has confounded all attempts at mathematically precise EV calculations.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Early in low buy-in MTT. Blinds 15-30. Everyone has nearly the same amount, 1500. I hold JhTc in SB. 2 limpers, I complete. BB raises to 90, everyone calls. I called for the implied odds and getting to close the action preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fold here.

[ QUOTE ]
So now there's 360 in the pot. Flop comes JcJd2d, giving me T high trips but with two diamonds on the flop. I'm against 3 opponents who each have 1410 chips.

How do I play this first to act on flop turn and river?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's why you fold here. But since you're here, bet 120 and hope the BB raises.

[Mike Gallo]

I called for the implied odds and getting to close the action preflop.

By calling you have given your opponents implied odds.
You have reverse implied odds.

I do not like the call here, however I would push on the flop if I made it that far.

IMHO you overvalued this modest holding.

[Donating]

Well - I don't like the call much either, but that's not really what you're asking about. Given the situation, I probably lead the flop. Assuming you play the hand thinking your J is good, I think that this is a perfect situation for a weak lead. Hope the BB has an overpair, picks up on your weakness, and raises you.

If you are concerned about KJ or AJ, another line would be to check the flop. You can get a better sense of how the action develops. BB may bet out and get raised. You can then get away from the hand. Also, depending on the action, you can check raise here.

The hand should play itself on turn/river - I doubt it gets to the river, though.

[Iconoclastic]

The more I think about it the more I think folding to the preflop raise is correct.

Anyways the reason I'm not sure what to do postflop is, well, here's an example.

Would you rather have a 100% chance of taking down a 600 chip pot or a 80% chance to take down an 800 chip pot?

Are the risks associated with keeping people in the pot and increasing your EV worth the variance?

[Donating]

No. Especially for 200 extra chips. The point in tournaments is generally to stay alive. Risking your tournament over a 13% increase in stack size would be a bad decision.

[baumer]

if you were in LP and limped with this hand, and were faced with the same decision preflop, a call for implied odds may be in order, simply because of your positional advantage.

however, you did flop trips and there is only one more jack out there.

if you bet half the pot or slightly under it would give you all the information you would need to play out the hand.

if there are flush draws out there they won't be getting their odds, and if there is another J out there, it is probably going to hurt you.

however, you played this hand because you wanted to see a big improvement on the flop and you got it, you need to get some chips out of your good hands, so don't be afraid to play trips.

if you get reraised huge on the flop bet, it probably represents an overpair rather than a higher J, i think a J is calling or min-raising your bet.

if a flush card hits on the turn after they both call, you can bet out and have an easy fold to a raise, or a tough decision on the river if you get called.

folding trips prematurely can't be a good play, i don't think its easy enough to put someone on AJ or KJ.

id probably go broke with this hand.

conclusion
----------
fold preflop.

edit
----
i dont really like the push on the flop because it will force the majority of players out of the pot and will only get called by crazy flush draw callers or a better hand

in the case of getting called by crazy flush draw guys, you can still extract money from these jerks by betting enough at the pot so they aren't gettin their odds.

and when they do hit their flush, you still have chips left!

your main goal is to get your opponents to make mistakes while protecting your own stack. i see no better way to do this than to give your opponents the worst of it, while still keeping some of your chips.

if you do end up goin allin throughout this hand it will be against a better jack, and not a flush hitting. Only regret calling preflop if you do get beat by a better jack, not any of your postflop play.

[Iconoclastic]

[ QUOTE ]
No. Especially for 200 extra chips. The point in tournaments is generally to stay alive. Risking your tournament over a 13% increase in stack size would be a bad decision.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess that's a Survivor way of looking at it. But I prefer to Accumulate. Plus, what if it wasn't just 200 chips. What if it was 100% for 600 or 80% for 1200. There has to be a point where it's worth it to keep them in.

I used to be a Survivor and would check-raise pot the Flop and push the Turn. I usually ended up winning very little. Then I converted to Accumulator and I'm being more successful than I was playing as Survivor. Now I'm thinking about check-calling the Flop and check-raising the Turn or check-calling the Flop and Turn and betting the River. The low buy-in MTTs I play do not contain intelligent opponents. They will predictably keep betting small if I don't raise them but if I bet into them they'll shut it down.

[SossMan]

the preflop call is marginal, and probably wrong, but not horribly so.

I would check trhis flop every time. I'm only raising if the preflop better bets fairly large and it's called in at least one spot.
otherwise, I'm checkcalling. I'll check again if nobody called a PFRs bet and a diamond doesn't come off. I like betting out if an overcard hits on the turn, too.

[Potowame]

the standard way ahead way behind , passive play. That would be my line also. Its one of those hands that your Mom would tell you " you made your bed, now you have to lay in it." . If your calling with J10s you really cant get away from losing chips on this flop.

Your not going to double up on this hand unless there are some players that just dont belive you could have a J here. Keep the pot some what small and get through it with out try to get put to a AI conferntation.

[PktAcesSoWht]

I do not believe that calling the preflop raise was horrible, you were getting good value on your money I think to see the flop.

I think you definitely need to bet out. I think it is too risky that the BB will check and everyone else will check as well and then you just lost an opportunity to gain information and to have an opponent make a mistake. If your trips are the best hand, and they probably are, then why give the flush draw a free card to beat you. Cardinal sin.

I would bet 200, and see what happens. If I was called by someone then I might check the turn and see what happens. If it is checked back to me on the turn. I would bet out on the river one-third to one-half the pot and see what happens.

I think it is a horrible decision to think about folding this hand after you made trips. I mean why would you play it at all if that were the case.

I would think that BB has a pair or AK, AQ something like that.

[PktAcesSoWht]

100 percent at 600 is better than 80 percent for 800. IMHO

[Iconoclastic]

This is how it turned out:

I checked the Flop, and like what Sossman said I planned to pump it if there was a significant bet but to call if there was a small bet. BB bet 90 chips again, and got 1 caller back to me, I decided to call. Possible reasons for my call: a pot reraise will likely scare everyone off. If I reraise small they'll probably shut it down on the Turn anyways so I'll be forced to bet out, which is inferior to the pot reraise on the Flop anyways because it gives them a free card. So I was planning to extract more on the Turn.

I'm playing these trips as the nuts on this flop. My experience in low buy-in MTTs indicate that many will go all in with just an overpair.

So the Turn comes a 8d to fill up any possible flushes. So I check again, BB underbets the pot again, the LP player reraises, I fold, the BB pushes, and the LP player folds.

[Will_Son]

First post (pop the cherry):

I would've bet out 300 on the flop or, had I taken your approach and checked, raised to 300 when the action came around to me again. I'm not a fan of giving free cards when there's a flush draw possibility out there and I think the pot's a decent size for it to be worth it for you to take it down right now.

[Beavis68]

[ QUOTE ]
Early in low buy-in MTT. Blinds 15-30. Everyone has nearly the same amount, 1500. I hold JhTc in SB. 2 limpers, I complete. BB raises to 90, everyone calls. I called for the implied odds and getting to close the action preflop.

So now there's 360 in the pot. Flop comes JcJd2d, giving me T high trips but with two diamonds on the flop. I'm against 3 opponents who each have 1410 chips.

How do I play this first to act on flop turn and river?

I'll continue with followup posts detailing what has complicated this hand so much and has confounded all attempts at mathematically precise EV calculations.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the players are weak post-flop, the call isnt bad, I would rather it were suited.

Bet out about 3/4s of the pot, I would be willing go to the felt with this. If they have been agressive post flop, check-raise them the size of the pot.

I don't agree that you have reverse implied odds. But I like calling with a hand less obvious than JTo

[fnord_too]

Check raise the flop. If you don't get all in on the flop push the turn regardless of what it is (assuming you get a c/r in on the flop, if it gets checked around, ugh.) I only skimmed a few of the responses, I don't mint the pre flop action at all. The BB really hasn't a clue as far as I can tell, raising 60 is just sweetening the pot, but won't get anyone out. Hard to think of what hand he would want to build a big multi-way pot with. You almost definitely have the best hand, and will have redraws even if a flush comes. If you are lucky, BB has AA or KK and won't be able to get away from it.

[PktAcesSoWht]

You played this in a way that would almost ensure that you would lose the pot. I think your flop and turn play was atrocious. Giving the free flush card to beat you is just a terrible mistake. You should have bet out big on flop and made sure any flush draws would be getting terrible odds. You should have check raised, since it was bet.

You set yourself up to get bought off the pot when the third flush card came.

When you put up the 100% to win 600 and 80% to win 800, you should have put up 0% to win when the flush card hits, since you were going to fold if it came and someone bet.

that 100% looked pretty good when you were throwing away your SET.

[Donating]

Just curious for what your plan was if no diamond came off given the flop action. Were you planning on leading out (and if so for how much) or check raising? It seems like pretty weak flop action so potentially checked around if you don't lead.

[HoldingFolding]

I think this hand illustrates the dichotomy between high and low level buy ins. I put BB squarely on AA, KK or AK. His mini bet is simply stating "I have Aces, but I'm scared of those Jacks". Post hand it's easy to put LP on a medium pair, but he could just have easily been on a flush draw, and that call would have made me nervous enough of the flush draw to make a big bet.

Seeing the way the hand played out, I think if you'd have made that bet you'd have ended up all in with BB, with LP folding. I also think you'd have got all BBs chips.

[Iconoclastic]

My instincts at the time(cuz it's really impossible to come up with a real plan for a new situation in 20 seconds) were to check-raise pot the Flop if someone bet big, or check-call the Flop if someone bet small to induce another bet on the Turn and check-raise pot on the Turn. I just felt that the BB would probably make another small bet on the Turn and the amount of chips I could squeeze out on the Turn was > than the % a diamond would come on the Turn.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
My instincts at the time(cuz it's really impossible to come up with a real plan for a new situation in 20 seconds) were to check-raise pot the Flop if someone bet big, or check-call the Flop if someone bet small to induce another bet on the Turn and check-raise pot on the Turn. I just felt that the BB would probably make another small bet on the Turn and the amount of chips I could squeeze out on the Turn was > than the % a diamond would come on the Turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's why you bet the flop in the first place. The last thing anyone in a low buyin puts you on when you do that is a jack.

BB would have probably raised, and *now* a call behind tells you whether anyone has a draw/J and you can take their chips on the turn.

Reference for a similar hand: The hand I posted a week ago (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=singletable&Number=1892707 &Forum=f22&Words=k8s&Searchpage=0&Limit=25&Main=18 92707&Search=true&where=sub&Name=&daterange=1&newe rval=2&newertype=w&olderval=&oldertype=&bodyprev=1 #Post1892707). Note that I'd have played it identically with a J/decent kicker, up until the button minraised (I'd push).

[Iconoclastic]

I doubt that BB would have reraised my flop bet. You didn't specify a pot bet or a small bet, I assume it's something in between. But Loose Passive players at low buy-in levels, which all these players probably were, don't reraise, even if they've got an overpair, cuz they're afraid of the two Jacks. They'll probably call me down, and that doesn't really give me much information on all streets. I also have a lesser chance of thinning the field if I don't check-raise at some point. So it comes down to check-raising pot on the Flop or the Turn. Sure 20% of the time I'll see a third diamond, but the pot size will increase more than 20% by waiting until the Turn to check-raise and that's why I made that play.

The main rationale in hindsight is basically to take advantage of the Loose Passiveness of the table and let them juice up the pot for me, and then take it down or double up, instead of scaring them away on the Flop.

If the BB had bet the minimum though, I'd probably have to pot it on the Flop because the chances of a diamond on the Turn is greater than the increase of the pot in that case.

Another way of looking at it is no matter how I bet, I'm probably going to get called by overpairs and flush draws on the flop. But by not showing aggression until the Turn I squeezed out more than 20% chips from the pot, which is +EV considering the chance of a diamond on the Turn.

[yecul]

I don't like the pf call, but whatever.

On the flop, CR that. If they fold out, oh well. Part of the luck in poker is getting up against a second-best hand that will pay you off. Don't give the free/cheap draws against two opponents unless you have a nice read on them or the nuts.