02-28-2002, 11:17 PM
I almost never bet college hoops regular season, but I do take part in the big dance but even better for me is conference tourneys. In all of sports I have found soft spots, whether it be arena football at one time, MLB regular season, last week of most sports' seasons (especially NFL), NFL playoffs...there are many good periods to bet but these conference tourneys are the easiest thing to beat out there. Unfortunately there aren't that many games. Here I will give you simple tips that pretty much should make you a winner year after year. I think the reason why I do very well at these is that talent is almost secondary in consideration to motivation. Quite simply its amazing how many teams show up motivated and how many don't. Here are most of the keys:
1. Shorten your time frame
College hoops is very much a power ratings driven betting sport. Most people will tell you that. Well I will tell you the secret is current form and for these tourneys shorten your form even more. I use the results of the last 6 games for a power rating right now. What happened in January makes no bearing on my ratings! Key reason is that college hoops is the game that is the most dynamic over time. The key players are younger and younger every year and because of it their form doesn't hold long. Not to mention teams without depth start giving up due to exhaustion while the solid teams get stronger. Add it all up and you will follow the current form ratings and have an edge on the guys following their full season ratings (which is just about everyone I know).
2. Review the last few weeks of the season.
In keeping with the current form ratings, look over the last 4-6 games. Especially pay attention to the poorer teams that do play in the conference tourneys. What you are looking for is a key win. This is any win where they beat a better team, ratings wise. Even further pay attention to the team's last home game. This is seniors night, the game where home teams are usually most fired up because their families come and the fans fill the stands more on average. This can be a good betting angle in itself, but what you are looking for is simply a win by a bad team either in seniors night or a win over a superior team. This often is the sign of satisfaction in my book. This team knows they aren't going any further so they want one win down the stretch to sort of "make their season". These teams come to the conference tourneys and often just stink in their one and out. If the team hasn't had a satisfaction win, they often will bring a good effort to this tourney and are a good bet in round one. They don't always win, but their efforts lead to a cover. No matter how you look at it, this is the time of the last competitive game for a lot of players and they all want to end their careers (or season for the underclassmen) with at least one good memory and that will come near the end of the season. This is a huge factor, don't underestimate it. Only caveat is steer clear from teams that might have thrown in the towel. This is a team that has lost its last 4 or 5 games and at least 2 or 3 of them by large margins. This is a team that might have given up and even with the motivation to have a nice ending, they generally have no confidence and are not worth backing.
3. Understand the depth of each team.
These conference tourneys are very very tough. Four games in four days if you want to win it. With this in mind realize that favorites will pace themselves. First two rounds are very skewed to the dogs. They take the nothing to lose mentality and leave it all on the floor in every game. They eventually lose, but they generally needed the effort and didn't expect to play all 4 games. The favorites expect to play 4 and don't exert themselves too hard. The coach lengthens the bench and doesn't lay it on. I won't say don't play any favorites in the first two rounds, but I do say have a very strong reason such as the motivation I suggested or a clear power ratings edge and a reasonable line where you don't need a big win to cover.
4. Coaches matter.
Game to game coaches don't make a difference, but when it comes to playing in these tourneys the coaches are the most important factor. You are dealing with teams that can get fatigued and you also have the playing time issue I brought up. As you get to rounds 3 and 4, this is where coaching advantages are crucial. Avoid coaches that haven't been with their squad at least 3 years as they still might be getting a feel for how to play personnel in these spots and how to properly motivate and navigate to a tourney championship. Go with the coaches with a lot of years experience, they are in better shape to do it. Also try to get a sense of past history for the coaches in these tourneys, especially giving bonus points in rounds 3 and 4 to guys that won a tourney with a 3 or lower seed. This is much like college football, preparation and motivation is all on the coach so you want the best ones backing your wagers.
5. Bubble teams.
Watch ESPN and any other national sports show. Look at the papers like USA Today. Figure out who the pundits have pegged as bubble teams. With that in mind, now use it to your advantage. Here is how you play them. If they are a decent sized favorite, say 6 or more, tend to back the bubble team. Here the odds say they are superior and a superior team will try to win with as big a margin as they can to improve RPI's. When the team is a smaller favorite or a dog, bet AGAINST them. Here the odds are saying they aren't sure to do it. This team is most likely not that good because otherwise it wouldn't be a bubble team! Taking a mediocre team playing a decent opponent means running up the score is tougher. You get a lot of bonuses doing this. You get bonus points if there is only one bubble team because the public knows it and the number is inflated. Further their opponents know they are bubble material because everyone watches ESPN and reads the papers so you get motivated opponents that want to knock bubble team out. It works just like in the NFL, I always say bet against mediocre teams in the "must-win" game and here you are essentially doing the same.
6. Sure things.
Sure things are teams that aren't even questioning their spots in the big dance. To further qualify it, I usually just look at #1 seeds in conference tourneys for this. If the #1 seed slips through to round 3 or later, they are usually a good team to back. The first two rounds are rest periods for them and often they can fall there. The last two rounds are flex their muscle periods. This sort of ties in with the rest of the advice because they will almost always be favored and they will usually have the best coaches. Thing that adds value is that the bettors don't think they are that motivated since they are assured a spot. I think they are even more motivated to prove they weren't a regular season fluke and moreover they are motivated to make things "complete" by winning the title, often over bubble teams. This just kind of completes the circle, if you watch these tourneys you see a lot of #1's win it and a lot of #4 and #5's if the #1 didn't get to the end. The mid-range teams will often show a stark form over the tail end of the season when they either got healthy or they just clicked. Often its chemistry that the coach found through trying different lineups, or sometimes its a mediocre team with a good experienced coach that pushed the right buttons to get them through.
1. Shorten your time frame
College hoops is very much a power ratings driven betting sport. Most people will tell you that. Well I will tell you the secret is current form and for these tourneys shorten your form even more. I use the results of the last 6 games for a power rating right now. What happened in January makes no bearing on my ratings! Key reason is that college hoops is the game that is the most dynamic over time. The key players are younger and younger every year and because of it their form doesn't hold long. Not to mention teams without depth start giving up due to exhaustion while the solid teams get stronger. Add it all up and you will follow the current form ratings and have an edge on the guys following their full season ratings (which is just about everyone I know).
2. Review the last few weeks of the season.
In keeping with the current form ratings, look over the last 4-6 games. Especially pay attention to the poorer teams that do play in the conference tourneys. What you are looking for is a key win. This is any win where they beat a better team, ratings wise. Even further pay attention to the team's last home game. This is seniors night, the game where home teams are usually most fired up because their families come and the fans fill the stands more on average. This can be a good betting angle in itself, but what you are looking for is simply a win by a bad team either in seniors night or a win over a superior team. This often is the sign of satisfaction in my book. This team knows they aren't going any further so they want one win down the stretch to sort of "make their season". These teams come to the conference tourneys and often just stink in their one and out. If the team hasn't had a satisfaction win, they often will bring a good effort to this tourney and are a good bet in round one. They don't always win, but their efforts lead to a cover. No matter how you look at it, this is the time of the last competitive game for a lot of players and they all want to end their careers (or season for the underclassmen) with at least one good memory and that will come near the end of the season. This is a huge factor, don't underestimate it. Only caveat is steer clear from teams that might have thrown in the towel. This is a team that has lost its last 4 or 5 games and at least 2 or 3 of them by large margins. This is a team that might have given up and even with the motivation to have a nice ending, they generally have no confidence and are not worth backing.
3. Understand the depth of each team.
These conference tourneys are very very tough. Four games in four days if you want to win it. With this in mind realize that favorites will pace themselves. First two rounds are very skewed to the dogs. They take the nothing to lose mentality and leave it all on the floor in every game. They eventually lose, but they generally needed the effort and didn't expect to play all 4 games. The favorites expect to play 4 and don't exert themselves too hard. The coach lengthens the bench and doesn't lay it on. I won't say don't play any favorites in the first two rounds, but I do say have a very strong reason such as the motivation I suggested or a clear power ratings edge and a reasonable line where you don't need a big win to cover.
4. Coaches matter.
Game to game coaches don't make a difference, but when it comes to playing in these tourneys the coaches are the most important factor. You are dealing with teams that can get fatigued and you also have the playing time issue I brought up. As you get to rounds 3 and 4, this is where coaching advantages are crucial. Avoid coaches that haven't been with their squad at least 3 years as they still might be getting a feel for how to play personnel in these spots and how to properly motivate and navigate to a tourney championship. Go with the coaches with a lot of years experience, they are in better shape to do it. Also try to get a sense of past history for the coaches in these tourneys, especially giving bonus points in rounds 3 and 4 to guys that won a tourney with a 3 or lower seed. This is much like college football, preparation and motivation is all on the coach so you want the best ones backing your wagers.
5. Bubble teams.
Watch ESPN and any other national sports show. Look at the papers like USA Today. Figure out who the pundits have pegged as bubble teams. With that in mind, now use it to your advantage. Here is how you play them. If they are a decent sized favorite, say 6 or more, tend to back the bubble team. Here the odds say they are superior and a superior team will try to win with as big a margin as they can to improve RPI's. When the team is a smaller favorite or a dog, bet AGAINST them. Here the odds are saying they aren't sure to do it. This team is most likely not that good because otherwise it wouldn't be a bubble team! Taking a mediocre team playing a decent opponent means running up the score is tougher. You get a lot of bonuses doing this. You get bonus points if there is only one bubble team because the public knows it and the number is inflated. Further their opponents know they are bubble material because everyone watches ESPN and reads the papers so you get motivated opponents that want to knock bubble team out. It works just like in the NFL, I always say bet against mediocre teams in the "must-win" game and here you are essentially doing the same.
6. Sure things.
Sure things are teams that aren't even questioning their spots in the big dance. To further qualify it, I usually just look at #1 seeds in conference tourneys for this. If the #1 seed slips through to round 3 or later, they are usually a good team to back. The first two rounds are rest periods for them and often they can fall there. The last two rounds are flex their muscle periods. This sort of ties in with the rest of the advice because they will almost always be favored and they will usually have the best coaches. Thing that adds value is that the bettors don't think they are that motivated since they are assured a spot. I think they are even more motivated to prove they weren't a regular season fluke and moreover they are motivated to make things "complete" by winning the title, often over bubble teams. This just kind of completes the circle, if you watch these tourneys you see a lot of #1's win it and a lot of #4 and #5's if the #1 didn't get to the end. The mid-range teams will often show a stark form over the tail end of the season when they either got healthy or they just clicked. Often its chemistry that the coach found through trying different lineups, or sometimes its a mediocre team with a good experienced coach that pushed the right buttons to get them through.