Rate my bluff

First of all, I only want you to rate my BLUFF, not any other part of the hand. $10 Paradise NL tourney, 5-10 blinds, I have about 1200(3rd highest stack). I pick up JcJs in ep. Folded to me, I raise to 100, mp and bb call.
Flop: Ks7s8c--bb checks, I check, mp bets 100, bb folds, I call.Turn:4h--I check, mp bets 100, I call. River: As, putting the 3flush on the board. I go all-in.
So, on a scale of 1-10(1 being lowest 10 being highest), please


TW

i'll post results after about 20 ppl have rated it.


TW

[Ignatius]

> River: As, putting the 3flush on the board. I go all-in.

What are you trying to represent here? A flush? - Unlikely, unless you're known for overbetting 3 times the pot preflop from EP with QJs or less. An ace? - Might work against KQ or QQ but won't scare AK to fold. AA or a slow-played set? - You certainly would have bet or check-raised the flop given the coordinated board. OTOH, there's an excellent chance that MP has been drawing himself (and maybe got there on the river).

All in all, the better hands you might get to fold here pretty much boil down to QQ and KQ (and maybe lesser kings). Not enough to risk your whole stack on a bluff, IMO.

cu

Ignatius

Ignatius, I see I forgot to mention that mp would reraise just about any ace btf, and never bets draws. I knew he had a pair of kings, and that was it. He folded and I took it down /forums/images/icons/cool.gif

TW

[Greg (FossilMan)]

The extra info you posted behind Ignatius is all-important to rating your bluff. Without it, or other information about the opponent, there is no way to rate the bluff. If the player had been an unknown quantity, I would rate the bluff as poor, because most unknowns call too much.

As evidence by his flat-calling your oversized preflop raise. There is almost no hand I would call with against your raise. Fold and reraise with certain hands, but almost never just call. I hate risking so much when the pot is so small. Why waste the potential of JJ by making it 100 to win 15? Bad math in my opinion.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[davidross]

TW,

While I admire your fine read, I don't like the play at all.

I play a lot of those tournaments, and there is no need for a good player to take a risk like that in the first round of a $10 tournament. I don't know how you got a good read on 9 hands at the most (5/10 is the first round), to be so sure he had K's, but a lot of those players will certainly call with top pair.

You have no chance to double up and every chance to go out. Unless you think there are several players better than you in the tournament, save these plays for a later round.

That, and he neglected to mention the stack sizes of the bb and mp.

[jacksup]

TW,

I was among those that gave your bluff a low rating, for the simple reason that players in a $10 tournament almost never fold a hand better than JJ, for any amount and no matter how scary the board. There are so many great spots to get your chips in these tourneys, there's no reason to shove so many in here.

Matt