iMsoLucky0
03-12-2005, 03:13 PM
Okay, let’s start with a question and then move to the analysis. What bankroll size do you guys think is necessary to buyin to the s3s or the s4s? Does the same ol' 30x or 50x buyin bankroll apply here?
Now to analyze these things, I’m going to make an assumptions. First I am going to assume a standard finish distribution in step5s, (10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, etc.). I know some of you are going to say that a standard finish in these isn’t realistic because the competition is some of the best players out there, but I am confident enough in my SNG play that I think that it is safe to assume some level close to this. With this finish distribution, that means that the EV of playing any step5 = 1000, and the ITM% is 40%, and the average payout of being ITM would be 2500. Right?
I am only going to analyze the step 3 and step 4 levels because that is where I would start if I actually want to play these things. I have the bankroll for these easily, and I probably have the bankroll for the step 5s, but I don’t really want to mess with that variance or putting 1k on the line over and over, lol.
At the step 4 level, we can buyin to about 4.7 tourneys before we have to have to have an ITM finish. We have to make it to the step 5 level 2.5 times, so 2.5/4.7 or 53% of the time. If you count the freerolls back at this level, and the freerolls to smaller levels, maybe it can even out to 50% (just a guess)? Does this seem plausible?
At the step 3 level, we can buy in to 11.6 tourneys before an ITM finish needs to be expected. We have to make it to the step 4 level at least 4.7 times to be break even. This means that we have to be at least as good as 4.7/11.6 or 40.5% of the time. Counting in freerolls we can say maybe 39%?
I am sure that there is a ton more analysis that can be done for these things, but I just don’t really know where to start. I think that I can definitely profit at both of these levels, but I don’t really know where I would be more profitable or why.
Any input would be greatly appreciated, as I’m sure that some of what I said was wrong and that there is much that I didn’t even look at.
Now to analyze these things, I’m going to make an assumptions. First I am going to assume a standard finish distribution in step5s, (10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, etc.). I know some of you are going to say that a standard finish in these isn’t realistic because the competition is some of the best players out there, but I am confident enough in my SNG play that I think that it is safe to assume some level close to this. With this finish distribution, that means that the EV of playing any step5 = 1000, and the ITM% is 40%, and the average payout of being ITM would be 2500. Right?
I am only going to analyze the step 3 and step 4 levels because that is where I would start if I actually want to play these things. I have the bankroll for these easily, and I probably have the bankroll for the step 5s, but I don’t really want to mess with that variance or putting 1k on the line over and over, lol.
At the step 4 level, we can buyin to about 4.7 tourneys before we have to have to have an ITM finish. We have to make it to the step 5 level 2.5 times, so 2.5/4.7 or 53% of the time. If you count the freerolls back at this level, and the freerolls to smaller levels, maybe it can even out to 50% (just a guess)? Does this seem plausible?
At the step 3 level, we can buy in to 11.6 tourneys before an ITM finish needs to be expected. We have to make it to the step 4 level at least 4.7 times to be break even. This means that we have to be at least as good as 4.7/11.6 or 40.5% of the time. Counting in freerolls we can say maybe 39%?
I am sure that there is a ton more analysis that can be done for these things, but I just don’t really know where to start. I think that I can definitely profit at both of these levels, but I don’t really know where I would be more profitable or why.
Any input would be greatly appreciated, as I’m sure that some of what I said was wrong and that there is much that I didn’t even look at.