Just a month ago....

[FlFishOn]

...I had my most recent losing day. I play every day, 4-12 hours. I'm still a little surprised the streak has continued for 30 days but there it is. I can thank my switch to NL as adding to my % of winning days and I can also thank all the various bonii.

If I assume I win 3 out of 4 days on average then a 30 day winning run will occur once every 15 years. Thems some long odds. If I've improved to winning 4 out of 5 days then this is an every 2 year occurance. Any way I look at it, I like it.

I still have several bonii to harvest so it's likely to go for a few more days.

[FlFishOn]

31 and going strong.

[Cubswin]

If I assume I win 3 out of 4 days on average then a 30 day winning run will occur once every 15 years. Thems some long odds. If I've improved to winning 4 out of 5 days then this is an every 2 year occurance.

Im interested to know how you came up with these figures

[FlFishOn]

Math always looks like sh+t when typed out. I'll try.

Assume you win 3 out of 4 days. this is .75 probability of a win. To win on 2 consecutive days is (.75)^2 or three quarters squared. to win on 30 consecutive days is (.75)^30 = .000179. It's inverse is 5560 or your expectation is once every 5560 days.

Look at DiMaggio's 56 game hitting streak in 1941. This is a mathematical miracle. During his streak he hit .408 but he was likely only a .300 hitter.

Assume 4 ABs per game. A .300 hitter will get zero hits (1 - .3)^4 = .24 = 24% of the time. He hits safely .76 . To go 56 games = (.76)^56 = .000000212 . The inverse is ~5 million. Assume 600 major leaguers playing 162 games/year > 110,000 chances per year (if they are .300 hitters, it drops off quickly at .240). So 5M/100000 yields a once per 50 odd year event. Adjusting BAs since there are not so many .300 hitters I'd guess this is a once per century event.

Regarding my own good fortune, I'd guess a large portion of my success is due to good bonus management. It will end and I will go on vacation. Where do you go for vacation when you live in Florida? You don't need to go far. I go to the Keys.

[Piers]

[ QUOTE ]
Regarding my own good fortune, I'd guess a large portion of my success is due to good bonus management.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ahh! If you are including bonuses into your figures thing change considerably. Maybe your not even lying, especially if you are actually trying to maintain a winning run.