Close to the money in O8

I have been practising O8 limit tournaments on Paradise lately.

But I have trouble with shorthanded play.

I have an example hand below.

I would not even have called limpers with it at a full table but have the following questions here:

Should I have called/raised ?

Should I have called, if i had been in the Big Blind ?

Any general advice on shorthanded play in O8, especially wiht blinds very big compared to the stacks? My own feeling is to raise/call with hands, that can work both as high and low, and hope to scoop it high.

I am "nummerfire" below. (Prices $100-$60-$40)

Game #227927314 (Level VII, Game #2) - 600/1,200 Omaha Hi/Lo 8 - 2002/09/28-12:10:36 (CST)
Table "Yasawa" ($20 tournament) -- Seat 8 is the button
Seat 1: nummerfire (2,678.50 in chips)
Seat 6: EvasiveEye (1,308.50 in chips)
Seat 7: HE Chas (2,349 in chips)
Seat 8: warrewjf (1,664 in chips)
nummerfire: Post Small Blind (300)
EvasiveEye: Post Big Blind (600)
Dealt to nummerfire [ 7c ]
Dealt to nummerfire [ 9s ]
Dealt to nummerfire [ 9c ]
Dealt to nummerfire [ 7s ]
HE Chas : Raise (1,200)
warrewjf: Fold
nummerfire: Fold
EvasiveEye: Call (600)

I would not have won the hand, if I had played it.

I later came in third.

Kim

Fold as fast as you possibly can.

[Ignatius]

Easy fold.

> Should I have called, if i had been in the Big Blind ?

No way. 9s-9c-7s-7c is a 48.0% dog vs. a random hand, even more so against a raising hand. Why mess with the only stack that can cripple you (to the point of having to move in on your next hand in the SB) over a piece of garbage.

cu

Ignatius

[Buzz]

Kim -

"Should I have called/raised ?"

No.

"Should I have called, if i had been in the Big Blind ?"

No.

"Any general advice on shorthanded play in O8, especially wiht blinds very big compared to the stacks? My own feeling is to raise/call with hands, that can work both as high and low, and hope to scoop it high."

I'm going to write this before reading the other responses, and then I will be interested in the other responses.

At some point in a limit-tournament the blinds become very large compared to stack size. Although it is a limit tournament, the play seems more like pot-limit or no-limit, at least to the extend that if you decide to play a hand against a larger stack, you're very possibly going all-in. If you lose under these circumstances, you're finished in the tournament. Usually at this point many players avoid any confrontations, except when forced to post the blinds, hoping that their opponents will anihilate each other. Confrontations are usually one-on-one confrontations. Because of this, when you voluntarily play a hand against a player with a larger stack than yours, you want to have a very good one-on-one hand. The same is true of voluntarily playing a hand against a player with a smaller stack, but often you can intimidate a player with a smaller stack where the same player with a larger stack than yours would be trying to intimidate you.

9977 is not a good one-on-one hand. You really need to see a nine or a seven on the board, and then you have no shot at low and may be beaten for high even when you do catch a set or a full house.

In these short handed situations where the confrontations are mostly one-on-one, flush and straight draws go down in value, while high pairs, aces and kings, go up in value. Even high cards, where you might catch a winning two pair hand, go up in value. A2 is still good for low but A3 or even A4 are almost as good, because your opponent probably does not have A2 or even A3. In a full game, you can make flush draws, straight draws, and nut low draws pay off for you when you make them, by collecting from more than one opponent. One-on-one, you simply are not getting the odds to play these draws. You do better with the bird in the hand bit, by having a set, trips, or even two pair, aces or kings over. (From the old adage, A bird in the hand is worth two in the field. Do you have the same adage in Denmark?)

Just my opinion. Hope it helps you.

Buzz

[Fraubump]

What if the hand had been 8877? This is a significantly better hand and might be worth a bluff.

[Ignatius]

8877 double suited is only marginally better and still a dog to a random hand containing an ace or an overpair. Also, with your opponent being halfway in, there's no room for bluffing anymore.

cu

Ignatius

[Buzz]

Fraubump -

Seat 1: nummerfire (2,678.50 in chips)....4.5 small bets - 0.5 sb
Seat 6: EvasiveEye (1,308.50 in chips) ....2.2 small bets - 1.0 sb
Seat 7: HE Chas (2,349 in chips) ....3.9 small bets - 2.0 sb
Seat 8: warrewjf (1,664 in chips) ....2.8 small bets - fold

HE Chas, next to post the blind has raised. HE Chas most likely has a better than average one-on-one hand and wants to either steal the blinds or get one-on-one with EvasiveEye, the smallest stack. Although it’s possible that HE Chas has a poor hand, it's doubtful. Instead, I would put HE Chas on a range of better than average hands extending from good to excellent for one-on-one play.

Nummerfire sees what’s happening, but holding 9977, a below average hand, can’t really do anything about it, one way or the other, and concedes the small blind. Nummerfire should hope HE Chas knocks out EvasiveEye, even though by so doing HE Chas will take over as the new chip leader. By avoiding the action here, nummerfire may drop to second place in the chip standings, but still with a good chance to win the tournament, and assured of at least third place. By (foolishly) entering the action here, nummerfire would most likely end up with 0.5 small bets in chips left, and will probably get knocked out on the next round, ending up in fourth place. Nummerfire wisely avoids taking this chance.

Even if nummerfire held 8877, a better one-on-one hand than 9977, nummerfire would be wise to avoid getting involved. Nummerfire, in my humble opinion, would need a substantially better than average hand to enter the action in this situation. Note that EvasiveEye is yet to act this betting round. EvasiveEye, if holding a better than average hand, might easily raise all-in, should nummerfire choose to play. This is a dangerous situation where many big blinds with small stacks choose to go all-in before the flop. (I don't think voluntarily going all-in before the flop in a tournament is generally a wise play, but I often see it, and consequently I often try to side-step the possibility of getting caught with it). There is no possibility of bluffing once an opponent is all-in.

I’d be interested in seeing Monte Carlo simulation results for (a) 9977 vs. one opponent with a random hand, and (b) 8877 vs. one opponent with a random hand. it would also be interesting to see simulations results for (c) 9977 vs. one opponent with a better than average one-on-one hand, and (d) 8877 vs. one opponent with a better than average one-on-one hand.

However, it’s a moot point for this situation. I would not play either hand here.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[soda]

Thought this was interesting (Winning percentage indicated):

9c9s7c7s vs. random hands
48.37% 51.63%

8c8s7c7s vs. random hands
53.71% 46.29%

Picked As2s6sJd as my better than average hand (maybe it isn't though):

9c9s7c7s vs. As2s6sJd
45.47% 54.53%

8c8s7c7s vs. As2s6sJd
50.6% 49.4%

And for kicks AsKh2s3h:

9c9s7c7s vs. AsKh2s3h
40.3% 59.7%

8c8s7c7s vs. AsKh2s3h
46.32% 53.68%

I used Poker Calculator for this. I'd be interested in hearing what others think of it. Just downloaded it yesterday, does anyone else use it?

soda

[Buzz]

soda - Thanks for the data.

Looks like 8877 is consistently about 5/4 better (about 25% better) than 9977 in each of your simulations.

48.37%/51.63% = 0.9369/1,
while 53.71%/46.29% = 1.1603/1.
1.1603/0.9369 = 1.24/1

45.47%/54.53% = 0.8339/1.
while 50.6%/49.4% = 1.024/1.
1.024/0.8339 = 1.23/1

40.3%/59.7% = 0.675/1.
while 46.32%/53.68% = 0.863/1.
0.863/0.675 = 1.28/1

8877ds is better than a random hand (1.16 to 1), but it was about even (1.02 to 1) or an underdog (0.86 to 1) to a better than average hand. HE Chas is more likely to have an above average hand than a below average hand for the raise.

At 1.16 to 1, 8877ds is about a 7 to 6 favorite.
At 0.86 to 1, 8877ds is about a 6 to 7 underdog.
Holding 8877ds, you don’t know which, or if you’re even money.

Tempting to re-raise here (with 8877ds) if you are up against better players.

By re-raising with 8877ds, you’d be turning the tournament into a crap shoot for yourself. I think if you feel very intimidated by your opponents, it might not be a bad choice for you (as the underdog) to turn the tournament into a crap shoot at this point. An opponent with more skill than you will surely hate it if you do this!

Sometimes in backgammon the best play is to make the move your opponent doesn’t want to see you make. HE Chas, even if holding a premium hand (which is doubtful here, in spite of the raise), would probably not welcome a re-raise before the flop.

If you lose here, you won’t go broke on this hand, but your stack will be decimated and you will become the prey at least for the next couple of rounds. However, if you win, you’ll roughly double your stack and probably knock out at least one of your opponents. You’ll emerge from this deal a big favorite to dominate the remaining players and win the tournament.

None of the simulations were against a big pair, aces or kings. I wonder how 8877ds would fare against KK35s or AAK5s. I think not nearly as well. Both KK35s and AAK5s seem like excellent one-on-one hands, and the danger, IMHO, would be facing a hand like one of these.

But on the other hand, facing the blinds on the very next hand, HE Chas easily could be making a move here. There certainly is no assurance HE Chas has a hand anywhere near as good as KK35s or AAK5s.

Hmm. I still think I’d stay out of it here, if holding 8877ds, because (1) of the distinct possibility HE Chas is holding a hand like KK35s or AAK5s, (2) HE Chas has made a move which is unclear to me, (3) someone might get knocked out of the tournament right here, moving me up a place with no effort on my own part, and (4) I don’t like crap shoots. However, it might be in the best interests of an underdog to raise here.

“I used Poker Calculator for this.”

I haven’t heard anything bad about poker Calculator or read anything bad about it here or on r.g.p.

Might be interesting to see how KK35s fares one-on-one against 8877ds, (1) with s the same as one of the ds, and (2) with s different from either of the ds. For example, (1) KsKh3s5d vs. 8c8s7c7s and (2) KsKh3h5d vs 8c8s7c7s.

Thanks again for the simulation data.

Buzz

[jacksup]

Cold-calling a raise in the small blind with 9977 is not correct in any situation. Good fold.

Matt