Awful cards dealt to me over 5 hours-- what are the odds?

[M5Falcon]

Just returned from the Borgata $3/$6 Tables... and had a really miserable (boring) night of cards; played for 3 hours, with a break, then 2.5 hours.
My best hand: I got a pair of Jacks three times (won once, lost to aces twice)
I NEVER got a hand of AT or better (seriously)

Here's my question for the math majors out there: What are the odds of being dealt only three "Group 1 Hands" in 5.5 hours? Slantsky refers to Group 1 Hands being AA KK QQ JJ AKs. At the Borgata they claim 25 to 30 hands dealt per hour; with me playing 5.5 hours; that is about 125 hands.

Lost $180 over 5 hours. Many multiway pots. I really am curious to know what the odds were that I got so few premium hands dealt to me.

Thanks--
JOHN

[stone_7]

[ QUOTE ]
Here's my question for the math majors out there: What are the odds of being dealt only three "Group 1 Hands" in 5.5 hours? Slantsky refers to Group 1 Hands being AA KK QQ JJ AKs. At the Borgata they claim 25 to 30 hands dealt per hour; with me playing 5.5 hours; that is about 125 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Higher than the chance you get any sympathy here for your non bad beat/cards story.

[M5Falcon]

Sniffle, sniffle... Very funny!
But I am serious here about the odds of being dealt premium hands in 125 deals.
And you're right about the "no sympathy"; as I did avoid pretty much any bad beats tonight-- my losses were mostly just 1 and 2 small bets over 5.5 hours!

[GrandmaStabone]

Today I ate a huge lunch at Taco Bell and had small, spicy craps all day long - short but frequent. What I want to know is, what are the odds of me taking 23.6 craps in 8.5 hours? SLANTSKY says that the mud butt formula would dictate around 16.3.... I really am curious about what the odds are that this would happen, and since 2+2 is supposed to be the place for math, I'll ask about the odds of a totally random, inane event like it's an intelligent issue.

[James282]

The odds aren't nearly as bad as you think. I've had several stretches of more than 100 hands without a single "premium" holding.
-James

[aron]

Welcome to the forums.
Random works that way, sure it's unusual when no good cards come but it would be downright insane if that never happened.
If you play a lot this is inevitable the only strange thing is that it happend to you, right there and right then.

But the odds for it happening 1:1, if this where the only 5,5 hours of poker you ever played, whole different story.

-aron

[Freakin]

That game must be rigged.

Freakin

[Mike Gallo]

I really am curious to know what the odds were that I got so few premium hands dealt to me.

I have sat for 8 hours without getting dealt one playable hand. They call that going card dead, play long enough and it will happen.

Welcome to the forum.

[pokerjo22]

You'll get AA 1 out of 220 cards, KK 1, QQ 1, JJ 1 and AKs under 1 (0.66). Let's call it 5 out of 220 hands. So if you got JJ 3 times in 125 hands you were running slightly better than average, at least on the Group 1 hands. Welcome to poker.

[og5]

Man if 3 premium hands over 5 hours is better than average at BM I am SO thankful for online play /images/graemlins/smile.gif got AA 3 times in a single session yesterday

[Mike Gallo]

pretty funny avatar.

[M5Falcon]

Wow, 8 hours! I feel better now. And I only lost $180 at a 3/6 table. Just curious: how did you end up that time you had the 8 hour dry spell?... And, how should I handle my stack when I get on a long dry run?
JOHN

[Mike Gallo]

Just curious: how did you end up that time you had the 8 hour dry spell?...

It happened playing $10-$20 and I lost $400 playing in the session. I considered the fact that the game had so many soft players the saddest part. The old if.. "I played in such a good game, how can I have lost 20 big bets",type of situation.

[Little Fishy]

[ QUOTE ]
And, how should I handle my stack when I get on a long dry run?


[/ QUOTE ]

that's why baldwin says to only sit down with at most 10% of your bankroll at a given session. that way a dryspell or tilt can be weathered.

-little fishy

[AviD]

[ QUOTE ]
Here's my question for the math majors out there: What are the odds of being dealt only three "Group 1 Hands" in 5.5 hours? Slantsky refers to Group 1 Hands being AA KK QQ JJ AKs.

[/ QUOTE ]

5.5 hours? I've gone easily 20+ hours without one of those hands easily in live games...at the Borgata too.

[Peter_rus]

Probability not to catch any 2 from 1st Sklansky group during 125 hands is (1-0.021)^125 which is equals 7.04% or it's happen 1 time out of 14.

If you hadn't get any 9% top cards (ATo,A9s,KQs,77) during 125 last hands than you're got *lucky* way more and this happens one time out of 131773.

[mostsmooth]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Here's my question for the math majors out there: What are the odds of being dealt only three "Group 1 Hands" in 5.5 hours? Slantsky refers to Group 1 Hands being AA KK QQ JJ AKs.

[/ QUOTE ]

5.5 hours? I've gone easily 20+ hours without one of those hands easily in live games...at the Borgata too.

[/ QUOTE ]
i played friday night over 15 hours and didnt see AA,KK,or QQ. had JJ three times(next highest pair was 77), AK twice,AQ twice.
that was fun

[SeaEagle]

You'll get AA-JJ or AKs once every 41.4 hands, on average. So 3 of them in 125 hands is pretty much dead nuts average.

Sounds to me like your problem wasn't Group I hands but Group II and III hands.

--SeaEagle

[jtr]

My god, John: this run was nothing to complain about. Seriously, save your energy for something that's actually unlikely.

The bit of probability theory you need for answering your question is the binomial distribution. Your event of interest -- being dealt a Group 1 hand -- occurs 2.111% of the time, OK? (12 + 12 + 12 + 12 + 8) / 2652 ~= 0.0211.

The binomial distribution tells us the probability of observing x such events over n trials given a probability p of the event occurring per trial. By looking up the binomial distribution for the (x, n, p) combinations we're interested in, we get your answer.

You saw 125 hands (i.e., 125 trials), and were upset to find that only 3 of them were group 1 hands. The probability of your seeing exactly 3 group 1 hands was 22.1%. But what you're really talking about is the probability of your seeing 3 group 1 hands or fewer. This fits the "how unlucky am I?" tone of your post.

Well, that probability is a monstrous 72.8%. So your perceived "bad run" was actually the sort of thing that happens nearly three quarters of the time. Your run of cards was nothing out of the ordinary, not in the slightest. In fact even if you'd had no group 1 hands at all, that wouldn't be too weird: 6.95% of 125-hand sessions will be this bad.

To put it another way, imagine you'd received more of those nice group 1 hands, as you seem to feel you deserved. Let's say 8 of them, just to put a number on it. If you'd received 8 such hands in a 125 hand session, I very much doubt you'd be posting here about your enormous rush. And yet the chances of that happening are only 0.52%. That would be a far more remarkable run than the one you posted about.

PS: the respondent who says he's played 20+ hours without seeing a group 1 hand may be exaggerating slightly. The chances of a 500 hand session not containing a single group 1 hand are about 1 in 42959. So you could play a 20-hour live session every day of the year for 117 years and still only expect one session quite this bad.

[Little Fishy]

well put jtr

-little fishy

[M5Falcon]

You're dead on about the odds on the Group 1; thanks. Actually it was the group 2 and group 3 hands that I lacked.

How do you handle a dry run?

One thought I had was to choose a hand to play, say once a half hour or so, depending on position-- and try to read my oppenents-- and just play guts. What do you think about this?

[M5Falcon]

Thanks and after putting some energy into this; I agree my run of group 1 hands was fairly normal. I think my dry spell had more to do with a lack thereof of group 2 and group 3 hands.
What do you do during a dry run?

[cardcounter0]

"What do you do during a dry run?"

Fold with your right hand. If it starts getting tired, fold with your left.

[jtr]

[ QUOTE ]
What do you do during a dry run?

[/ QUOTE ]

Wear a deep groove into the felt between me and the dealer.

I can see the temptation behind your idea to pick one hand every half hour and "play guts" but in the long run you'll find this is a bad idea. In low-limit HE, you need to religiously stick to good starting cards if you want to profit.

[NoTalent]

Just wait until you get really great cards and they all get beat by players playing cards that any sane person would throw away! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[jtr]

[ QUOTE ]
Just wait until you get really great cards and they all get beat by players playing cards that any sane person would throw away! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this for me?

I've been there, let me assure you. But if you let that stuff change your starting requirements, well... that way lies madness, tilt and lost bankrolls.

[NoTalent]

Ooops, sorry that was meant for the original poster /images/graemlins/blush.gif
I need to learn to work the forum better. Sorry

[jtr]

No problem. I'm just over-sensitive, obviously.

[M5Falcon]

jtr, Mike G, Fishy, et al...
I really appreciate you weighing-in on this for me.

Clearly, I need to stay with Group 1,2,3 hands primarily. And avoid my own mistakes, too!

It just seems like sometimes you can go a while without getting a good starting hand or hitting a flop with any reasonable outs in low limit HE.

I have been winning money only 3/5 of my trips to the Borgata, and was just questioning... Because you hear poor players always complain that "they dont get cards".

[Zetack]

[ QUOTE ]
So you could play a 20-hour live session every day of the year for 117 years and still only expect one session quite this bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think you could play 20 hour sessions every day for 117 years. Probably no more than 6 out of seven days...and by 85 or 90 years you'd hit a serious danger of burn out...


--Zetack

[luong223]

I have had worst luck. It all evens out in the long run.