Bluffing opportunity?

[AtticusFinch]

3 handed pot, monochrome flop, no obvious straight draws. Checked to button who bets the pot. SB folds. My holding is irrelevant, suffice to say I don't have a flush card. Yet I am 95% certain villain does not have a flush. I am strongly tempted to raise half the pot here on a stone-cold bluff. Said raise would cost 1/3 of my remaining chips. I need opp to fold over 1/3 of the time for this to be +cEV.

I mucked it. But man was it tempting. Thoughts?

[Apathy]

Yes two thoughts:

1. You will not get top pair to fold here.
2. Check call, then bet on any flush card/overcard to the board is a better bluffing line that can save you chips.

Apathy

Who would like to thank suited for the sweet-ass new avatar

[ReDeYES88]

[ QUOTE ]
Who would like to thank suited for the sweet-ass new avatar

[/ QUOTE ]

. .i'd thank him, too, if only you had the hansen brothers instead of bob and doug, eh. .. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Irieguy]

How would you play the flop if you had a Jack-high flush? That's how you should play the flop if you want to bluff.

Irieguy

[Apathy]

[ QUOTE ]
How would you play the flop if you had a Jack-high flush? That's how you should play the flop if you want to bluff.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

I have to disagree with this comment. This thought (while it may or may not apply to this specific situation) can get you into trouble on party, especially at the mid-lower levels.

The players simply aren't good enough to be able to 'read' what you have by cleverily slowplay-bluffing. For example a J high flush might check call, check raise. But that would be a bad line as a bluff unless the player you are playing either knows you bery well, or i quite thinking and sophisticated themselves.

[curtains]

Irieguy didnt say he should bluff, he simply gave a plan of how to play if do decide to bluff.

[Apathy]

[ QUOTE ]

Irieguy didnt say he should bluff, he simply gave a plan of how to play if do decide to bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know that..maybe I wasn't clear:

You should bluff mediocre and bad players differently then you should bluff highly skilled, observant, thinking opponents. (the type you probably are not facing here).

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]

I have to disagree with this comment. This thought (while it may or may not apply to this specific situation) can get you into trouble on party, especially at the mid-lower levels.

The players simply aren't good enough to be able to 'read' what you have by cleverily slowplay-bluffing. For example a J high flush might check call, check raise. But that would be a bad line as a bluff unless the player you are playing either knows you bery well, or i quite thinking and sophisticated themselves.

[/ QUOTE ]

My reply was not a thought that may or may not apply to this specific situation. My reply was very specific to this situation.

Bluffing at a monochrome flop against unsophisticated players is very profitable. You just have to do it correctly.

Irieguy

[KSKevin]

I would say it all depends on whether you think your opponent would only bet with a pair, or whether he would semi-bluff at the pot with a big flush draw.

As for raising on flop, youre going to need to commit more than 1/3 of your chips to get most people with top pair to fold in this situation. A lot of people are going to call your raise and hope no scare card comes on the turn, meaning you are going to have to either bet big on the flop or bet again on the turn.

Combine this with the fact that many people play top pair and big flush draws the same way on this flop, and you are still going to be left wondering which hand he has if he calls. Youre out of position here, so it seems like a risk that is not worth taking.