Interesting play - will it ever work?

[aflaba]

This was against a TAG.


Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

This isn't what the point is about. But yes, I should have raised preflop.

Flop: (7 SB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Button folds, Hero calls.

Here I figured I was beat most of the time. But not often enough to fold. No point in raising it up... since that will cost. And if I'm not beat he probably doesn't have may outs.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero calls.

Here I start thinking. Hmm, I'm playing this like a weak ace.

River: (6.50 BB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 folds.

So on the river instead of checking, hoping to induce a bluff or that he will check a Q, I bet out, planning to fold to a raise. I bet hoping that he puts me on a weak A and folds a Q. Will this ever happen?

Final Pot: 7.50 BB

[URMeowed]

Never at www.partypoker.com. (http://www.partypoker.com.)

Meow.

[aflaba]

Really? I think it will.
Against the right opponents.
It only needs to work once in a while...

[URMeowed]

You would have to get a Q to fold more than one out of seven times head up. I just don't see it happening especially how you played it. Read my post about the weak lead.

Meow.

[goofball]

I would almost never fold a queen if i were MP1.

The bet is good periodically for an entirely different reason. There are a lot of hands worse than a Q that he checks behind but calls your bet. Since you are calling a bet anyway and can feel 100%confident folding to a raise, go ahead and bet.

[steveyz]

Once you are at the river, I think it's fine. But doing this in general will cost you a lot of bets. I would have 3-bet this pre-flop. It's unlikely anyone folds a better hand on the river. I'd call this river with a Q 100% of the time. You had the best hand.

But fold this on the flop. The pot isn't that big and there's a good chance you are behind and drawing to 2 outs.

[goofball]

Right. Fold on the flop.

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
This was against a TAG.

Here I figured I was beat most of the time. But not often enough to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're beat often enough here to fold, like 80% of the time or more. Meaning on average you have 0.4 outs and are only getting 7-1, this is definitely an easy fold.

[ QUOTE ]
It only has to work once in a while to be profitable

[/ QUOTE ]
No, with this play in whole you're spending 2.5BB to hopefully win an additional 5.5BB. It has to work a generous percentage of the time to be profitable, not 1/7.

[astroglide]

[ QUOTE ]
Read my post about the weak lead

[/ QUOTE ]

you have to be the fastest non-trolling self-appointed expert i have ever seen

[URMeowed]

Cats are fast. When did I self-appoint myself an expert? Between all my meowing, I do offer enlightening strategy. Maybe you should read some of my other posts or not. I don't really care. I just post on here for fun and sometimes actually offer useful information. If that's a crime, take me to an animal shelter and put me to sleep.

Meow.

[astroglide]

when you began referring to your own "work" in barely-related contexts? but it probably happened much sooner, and it's probably the reason you started posting here to begin with.

please spare me the elaboration on how you think it's actually contextual.

[hogger]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Read my post about the weak lead

[/ QUOTE ]

you have to be the fastest non-trolling self-appointed expert i have ever seen

[/ QUOTE ]
he had the best advice in this thread - what is your problem?

[astroglide]

it's unrelated to why i posted what i did, but re-read steveyz's and einbert's posts. however you slice it the guy is generally losing money on the flop and turn. if it's all part of an expensive plan to bet the river, it's not worth it. if it was under some hope of having the best hand, that's bad too. they said that already so i don't have anything to add.

the 'check out my published works on this topic' interpreted tone of the post is why i said what i did, but in response to you his advice wasn't complete or the best in this thread. even if it happened to be, it doesn't take a lot to look at the parentheses next to the RIVER section of the hand history conversion and make a comment about the odds being 1 to whatever that number is.

[URMeowed]

You don't have to defend me, Hogger. Astro just wants to yap his mouth. I'm glad he didn't read my post about the weak lead or he might learn something. He's a dog lover obviously.

Meow.

[aflaba]

Thanks for the advice. I really should call down less. I'll try.

I have trust issues. I'm right up from 10/20 sh. Even there, when one doesn't need to trust their opponents very much, I had trust issues. Now they cost me way more. I'll keep working on it.

About the play. I didn't take the preriver play into mind when posting it. As a paranthesis if you don't do that the preriver play into consideration, betting compared to calling

When he holds A:
no difference. He'll bet when you check.
When he holds a lower PP:
no difference. He wouldn't bet and won't call.
When he hold KJ:
Not very often, but here you lose a bet sometimes when he would have bluffed. This shouldn't be often though. I see a palyer taking a freecard on the turn with this.

When he holds a Q (KQ, QJs):
Here is where the difference comes. He would have checked behind if I checked, saving me a bet. He may fold when I bet, giving me the pot.

So seeing that only the situations where he has a Q matter he would have to fold a queen 1/8.5 times for this play to be profitable. I think this is possible against some opponents. If not then at least on another board with another hand I think this play should be considered :-). It helps your metagame too!

I'm sorry for the long and rambling post. I see now, after have gone through the possible hands of my opponent, that I was beat the vast majority of times. Is there any plausible hands I've missed to put him on?

later. Gonna go sunbathe now in front of my window. Nice and sunny. But not cold and snowy as on the outside.

[Joe Tall]

however you slice it the guy is generally losing money on the flop and turn.

Let me edit your statement , astro. It should read:

"However you slice it the guy is losing money preflop, flop and turn."

Peace,
Joe Tall